18223 Kettle Lake Pl · Lakewood Ranch, FL 34211

$755,607

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,724 sqft · SingleFamily · 150 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 3-car garage $277/sqft · 15% below area Est $894k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.5/15.0
• Schools +6.9/10.0
• Cash flow +5.8/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0
• Rent growth +1.2/5.0
• DSCR +0.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The open floorplan shared between the Great Room, kitchen and dining room serves as the heart of this single-level home, while sliding glass doors lead to a lanai for effortless indoor-outdoor living and entertaining. A versatile den is ideal for a home office or study space, and four bedrooms offer enough space for the whole family.

Key facts

• Versatile den
• Open floorplan
• Sliding glass doors

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• SLIDING GLASS DOORS
• LANAI
• VERSATILE DEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $756k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-18k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $539k (28.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $471k (37.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $471k (37.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.9% vs local median 2.9% in Lakewood Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Robert Willis Elementary School (math 83% / reading 79%, grade A+, #95 of 2,144 statewide, top 5%, 765 students, 22% FRL); R. Dan Nolan Middle School (math 79% / reading 72%, grade A, #38 of 571 statewide, top 7%, 760 students, 28% FRL); Lakewood Ranch High School (math 47% / reading 63%, grade C, #135 of 667 statewide, top 20%, 2,435 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools average 24% FRL vs 51% district-wide (27 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 70% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+18 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Manatee average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.2%/yr); 1554 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 119d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,714/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($120k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $23k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 150 days — a 12% lower offer ($665k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $471,418 (37.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 150 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.49%
• DSCR: 0.62
• GRM: 13.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $893,662
• List price: $755,607
• Delta: -15.45%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17807 Eastbrook Ter	0.35mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,852 (+5%)	6mo	$1,450,000	$508	66
18025 Northwood Pl	0.32mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,518 (-8%)	3mo	$835,000	$332	65
17802 Eastbrook Ter	0.36mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,508 (-8%)	6mo	$850,000	$339	60
7327 Summerland Cv	0.36mi	3/4.0 (-1)	2,883 (+6%)	5mo	$1,270,000	$441	60
17823 Littleton Pl	0.38mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,528 (-7%)	8mo	$850,000	$336	58
17619 Blue Ridge Pl	0.65mi	4/3.0	2,546 (-6%)	5mo	$725,000	$285	54
7428 Summerland Cv	0.52mi	3/4.0 (-1)	2,893 (+6%)	2mo	$1,250,000	$432	54
17916 Northwood Pl	0.40mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,985 (+10%)	7mo	$906,000	$304	53
17530 Northwood Pl	0.50mi	4/3.0	3,052 (+12%)	6mo	$785,000	$257	52
17614 Polo Trl	0.54mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,455 (-10%)	5mo	$775,000	$316	49
17519 Polo Trl	0.74mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,616 (-4%)	12mo	$665,000	$254	44
17936 Polo Trl	0.69mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,455 (-10%)	8mo	$700,000	$285	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -34.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.09×
• Total profit: $-231,569
• Equity at exit: $112,663

10-year hold

• IRR: -67.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.78×
• Total profit: $-377,571
• Equity at exit: $65,331

Cash invested: $211,570 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 19 active · 18 under contract
• Months of supply: 4.8 mo (21%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $773,607 ($310/sqft)
• Median days on market: 53 d
• This list price: 37% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +5.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34211

• Home prices YoY: -27.5%
• Rents YoY: -5.2%
• Active inventory: 1554
• Price-to-rent: 13.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,714 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,962
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$945 /mo · $11,334/yr
• Insurance: −$315
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$990
• Net cashflow: $-1,498

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,610

Max offer price $538,899

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-975	-5% $-1,237	+0% $-1,498	+5% $-1,759	+10% $-2,020
Rent	-10% $-1,870	-5% $-1,684	+0% $-1,498	+5% $-1,311	+10% $-1,125
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,117	-0.5pp $-1,305	base $-1,498	+0.5pp $-1,693	+1.0pp $-1,893

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $188,902
• Closing costs: $22,668
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18114 Waterville Pl Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	2054	$10,000	$4.87	119d	1	0.18mi
17850 Polo Trl Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.0	2257	$5,000	$2.22	0d	1	0.60mi
7675 Summerland Cv Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	2084	$5,000	$2.40	119d	1	0.63mi
6523 Clairborne Ln Bradenton, FL	5.0	3.0	3257	$6,500	$2.00	65d	1	0.69mi
6647 Clairborne Ln Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	1836	$3,595	$1.96	119d	1	0.75mi
17335 Blue Ridge Pl Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2201	$3,950	$1.79	119d	1	0.80mi
17335 Blue Ridge Pl Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2201	$3,950	$1.79	0d	1	0.80mi
7857 Redonda Loop Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	2292	$4,500	$1.96	9d	1	1.04mi
17006 Blue Ridge Pl Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	2529	$3,495	$1.38	119d	1	1.14mi
17810 Gawthrop Dr Bradenton, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1453	$4,000	$2.75	114d	2	1.18mi
17810 Gawthrop Dr Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1786	$5,000	$2.80	6d	2	1.18mi
17810 Gawthrop Dr Bradenton, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1453	$6,000	$4.13	9d	3	1.18mi
18117 Gawthrop Dr #104 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1786	$4,000	$2.24	119d	1	1.22mi
18017 Gawthrop Dr #104 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1786	$6,000	$3.36	119d	1	1.22mi
17815 Gawthrop Dr #101 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1786	$7,500	$4.20	0d	1	1.25mi
17021 Polo Trl Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2650	$5,900	$2.23	119d	1	1.27mi
6026 Brandon Run Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	2246	$12,000	$5.34	119d	1	1.44mi
5947 Brandon Run Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	2200	$13,000	$5.91	119d	1	1.46mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $655,999

Exterior

• Parking: 3-car garage / 3 parking spaces
• Home design: Single-family residence (Richmond plan)Spec inventory home
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2724Located at 18223 Kettle Lake Pl, Bradenton, FL 34211

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec-built Richmond plan

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-22
   days on market $755,607 Active 150 DOM
2. 2026-09-21
   days on market $755,607 Active 149 DOM
3. 2026-09-20
   days on market $755,607 Active 148 DOM
4. 2026-09-19
   days on market $755,607 Active 147 DOM
5. 2026-09-18
   days on market $755,607 Active 146 DOM
6. 2026-09-17
   days on market $755,607 Active 145 DOM
7. 2026-09-16
   days on market $755,607 Active 144 DOM
8. 2026-09-15
   days on market $755,607 Active 143 DOM
9. 2026-09-14
   days on market $755,607 Active 142 DOM
10. 2026-09-13
    days on market $755,607 Active 141 DOM
11. 2026-09-12
    days on market $755,607 Active 140 DOM
12. 2026-09-11
    days on market $755,607 Active 139 DOM
13. 2026-09-05
    days on market $755,607 Active 133 DOM
14. 2026-09-04
    days on market $755,607 Active 132 DOM
15. 2026-09-03
    pricedays on market $755,607 Active 131 DOM
16. 2026-08-31
    days on market $753,607 Active 128 DOM
17. 2026-08-30
    days on market $753,607 Active 127 DOM
18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $753,607 Active 126 DOM
19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $753,607 Active 125 DOM
20. 2026-08-27
    days on market $753,607 Active 124 DOM
21. 2026-08-26
    days on market $753,607 Active 123 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $753,607 Active 122 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $753,607 Active 121 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $753,607 Active 120 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $753,607 Active 119 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $753,607 Active 118 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $753,607 Active 117 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $753,607 Active 116 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $753,607 Active 115 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $753,607 Active 114 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $753,607 Active 113 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $753,607 Active 112 DOM
33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $753,607 Active 111 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $753,607 Active 110 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $753,607 Active 109 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $753,607 Active 108 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $753,607 Active 107 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $753,607 Active 106 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $753,607 Active 105 DOM
40. 2026-08-07
    days on market $753,607 Active 104 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $753,607 Active 103 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $753,607 Active 102 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $753,607 Active 101 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $753,607 Active 100 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $753,607 Active 97 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $753,607 Active 95 DOM
47. 2026-07-28
    days on market $753,607 Active 94 DOM
48. 2026-07-24
    days on market $753,607 Active 90 DOM
49. 2026-07-23
    days on market $753,607 Active 89 DOM
50. 2026-07-22
    days on market $753,607 Active 88 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $56,570
• − Mortgage interest: −$42,326
• − Property taxes: −$11,334
• − Insurance: −$3,778
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,526
• − Management: −$4,526
• − Depreciation: −$21,981
• Taxable loss: −$31,900
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,656
• After-tax cash flow: $-10,315/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-family home is in excellent condition with a modern design and well-maintained exterior. It is move-in ready and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint and landscaping improvements to further enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑

C Composite school gradezoned avg 69/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary B.d. Gullett Elementary School A FL #211/2,144 Nat'l #2,011/41,679 Middle R. Dan Nolan Middle School A FL #38/571 Nat'l #472/14,009 High Lakewood Ranch High School C FL #135/667 Nat'l #4,413/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakewood Ranch

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakewood Ranch, FL
• County: Manatee County · 447,342 people
• City population: 52,177
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,980
• Household income: $119,911
• Rent vs Own: 21.7% rent · 78.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Asian 3% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -100.84%
• Current HPI: 265.946
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.17%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $655,999

Exterior

• Parking: 3-car garage / 3 parking spaces
• Home design: Single-family residence (Richmond plan)Spec inventory home
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2724Located at 18223 Kettle Lake Pl, Bradenton, FL 34211

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec-built Richmond plan