18223 Kettle Lake Pl · Lakewood Ranch, FL 34211

$753,607

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,724 sqft · SingleFamily · 105 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 3-car garage $277/sqft · 11% below area Est $849k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.6/15.0
• Schools +6.9/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Cash flow +3.9/30.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.2/5.0
• 1% rule +0.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The open floorplan shared between the Great Room, kitchen and dining room serves as the heart of this single-level home, while sliding glass doors lead to a lanai for effortless indoor-outdoor living and entertaining. A versatile den is ideal for a home office or study space, and four bedrooms offer enough space for the whole family.

Key facts

• Versatile den
• Open floorplan
• Sliding glass doors

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• SLIDING GLASS DOORS
• LANAI
• VERSATILE DEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $754k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-26k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $445k (40.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $390k (48.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $390k (48.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: B.D. Gullett Elementary School (math 78% / reading 73%, grade A, #211 of 2,144 statewide, top 10%, 1,121 students, 20% FRL); R. Dan Nolan Middle School (math 79% / reading 72%, grade A, #38 of 571 statewide, top 7%, 760 students, 28% FRL); Lakewood Ranch High School (math 47% / reading 63%, grade C, #135 of 667 statewide, top 20%, 2,435 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools average 23% FRL vs 51% district-wide (27 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 69% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+17 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Manatee average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.2%/yr); 1372 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 73d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 82% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($120k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $23k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($686k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $389,564 (48.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 48% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.52% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.12%
• DSCR: 0.46
• GRM: 16.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $849,494
• List price: $753,607
• Delta: -11.29%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16204 Tradewind Ter	0.16mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,616 (-4%)	2mo	$910,000	$348	79
4911 Sparkling Sea Ln	0.17mi	4/2.5	2,356 (-14%)	0mo	$825,000	$350	68
16812 Harvest Moon Way	0.61mi	4/3.5	2,787 (+2%)	0mo	$590,160	$212	66
5066 Simons Ct	0.38mi	3/3.0 (-1)	3,000 (+10%)	1mo	$1,239,000	$413	59
15311 Golden Beam Pl	0.65mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,650 (-3%)	2mo	$1,037,000	$391	59
17735 Savory Mist Cir	0.70mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,775 (+2%)	2mo	$662,000	$239	58
16419 Paynes Mill Dr	0.60mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,880 (+6%)	0mo	$590,000	$205	55
5018 Surfside Cir	0.53mi	3/3.0 (-1)	3,000 (+10%)	0mo	$1,062,500	$354	53
4625 Trento Pl	0.48mi	3/3.0 (-1)	3,025 (+11%)	2mo	$1,300,000	$430	53
4617 Trento Pl	0.50mi	3/3.0 (-1)	3,035 (+11%)	0mo	$1,375,000	$453	52
4940 Surfside Cir	0.71mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,560 (-6%)	1mo	$880,000	$344	49
17022 Cresswind Ter	0.57mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,318 (-15%)	2mo	$690,000	$298	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -41.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.28×
• Total profit: $-269,164
• Equity at exit: $112,365

10-year hold

• IRR: -92.0%
• Equity multiple: -1.15×
• Total profit: $-452,987
• Equity at exit: $65,158

Cash invested: $211,010 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 100 active · 45 under contract
• Months of supply: 7.7 mo (13%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $766,597 ($288/sqft)
• Median days on market: 136 d
• This list price: 46% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +8.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34211

• Home prices YoY: -27.5%
• Rents YoY: -5.2%
• Active inventory: 1372
• Price-to-rent: 16.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,896 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,952
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$942 /mo · $11,304/yr
• Insurance: −$314
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$818
• Net cashflow: $-2,130

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,592

Max offer price $445,327

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,610	-5% $-1,870	+0% $-2,130	+5% $-2,391	+10% $-2,651
Rent	-10% $-2,438	-5% $-2,284	+0% $-2,130	+5% $-1,977	+10% $-1,823
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,751	-0.5pp $-1,939	base $-2,130	+0.5pp $-2,326	+1.0pp $-2,524

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $188,402
• Closing costs: $22,608
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19226 Cherrystone Way #102 , FL	3.0	2.0	2110	$3,600	$1.71	26d	1	0.03mi
16464 Whale Grey Pl Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2444	$5,000	$2.05	72d	1	0.29mi
15835 Tradewind Ter Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.5	2356	$8,900	$3.78	47d	1	0.37mi
15716 Barefoot Beach Dr Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2027	$7,500	$3.70	72d	1	0.43mi
5225 Blue Crush St Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	1849	$5,000	$2.70	72d	1	0.47mi
5161 Coral Reef Way Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2202	$4,000	$1.82	72d	1	0.48mi
5304 Grove Mill Loop Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.5	2056	$3,200	$1.56	72d	1	0.55mi
16426 Paynes Mill Dr Bradenton, FL	5.0	3.0	2419	$3,950	$1.63	69d	1	0.61mi
16905 Sweetwater Village Dr Bradenton, FL	4.0	4.0	3284	$5,300	$1.61	72d	1	0.62mi
4430 Pond Brook Ct Bradenton, FL	5.0	4.5	3515	$6,500	$1.85	25d	1	0.66mi
16921 Harvest Moon Way Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.5	2787	$3,800	$1.36	19d	1	0.67mi
5329 Halewood Ct Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	2728	$3,600	$1.32	19d	1	0.69mi
15161 Serene Shores Loop Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	1840	$3,800	$2.07	72d	1	0.71mi
15021 Sea Salt Way Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2444	$8,500	$3.48	72d	1	0.72mi
4909 Oyster Pearl St Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	2800	$10,000	$3.57	72d	1	0.77mi
17218 Reserva Dr Bradenton, FL	5.0	3.0	2605	$3,350	$1.29	35d	1	0.77mi
15032 Misty Water Xing Bradenton, FL	5.0	3.0	3231	$4,300	$1.33	41d	1	0.78mi
15263 Sunny Day Dr Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1879	$2,800	$1.49	27d	1	0.80mi
15016 Misty Water Xing Unit NA Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	1849	$3,195	$1.73	47d	1	0.82mi
17419 Harvest Moon Way Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.0	2045	$2,595	$1.27	65d	1	0.83mi
17220 Harvest Moon Way Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$2,700	$1.48	33d	1	0.84mi
15018 Oxford Grey Dr Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	2032	$5,500	$2.71	72d	1	0.84mi
15167 Sea Salt Way Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2444	$5,500	$2.25	72d	1	0.88mi
4708 Motta Ct Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1920	$12,000	$6.25	65d	1	0.88mi
14753 Lyla Ter Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1879	$2,600	$1.38	59d	1	0.88mi
15228 Lyla Ter Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1925	$3,000	$1.56	72d	1	0.89mi
14775 Lyla Ter Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1879	$2,600	$1.38	69d	1	0.90mi
14776 Lyla Ter Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1879	$4,500	$2.39	72d	1	0.91mi
15126 Sunny Day Dr Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	1879	$2,700	$1.44	72d	1	0.91mi
15035 Sunny Day Dr Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1880	$2,950	$1.57	72d	1	0.91mi
5528 Arnie Loop Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	2872	$10,000	$3.48	72d	1	0.92mi
4216 Pond Brook Ct Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	2419	$4,500	$1.86	63d	1	0.94mi
5507 Arnie Loop Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2815	$10,500	$3.73	72d	1	0.97mi
15110 Lyla Ter Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1925	$2,400	$1.25	27d	1	0.97mi
17710 Cantarina Cv Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	2756	$3,400	$1.23	26d	1	0.99mi
17467 Hickok Belt Loop Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	2247	$12,500	$5.56	72d	1	1.00mi
17605 Cantarina Cv Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.5	2045	$3,300	$1.61	35d	1	1.06mi
17525 Hickok Belt Loop Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	2250	$7,800	$3.47	72d	1	1.06mi
17630 Canopy Pl Bradenton, FL	5.0	3.0	2605	$3,550	$1.36	72d	1	1.06mi
5105 Vecchio Ct Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$2,900	$1.59	35d	1	1.17mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $655,999

Exterior

• Parking: 3-car garage / 3 parking spaces
• Home design: Single-family residence (Richmond plan)Spec inventory home
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2724Located at 18223 Kettle Lake Pl, Bradenton, FL 34211

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec-built Richmond plan

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $753,607 Active 105 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $753,607 Active 104 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $753,607 Active 103 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $753,607 Active 102 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $753,607 Active 101 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $753,607 Active 100 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $753,607 Active 97 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $753,607 Active 95 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $753,607 Active 94 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $753,607 Active 90 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $753,607 Active 89 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $753,607 Active 88 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $753,607 Active 87 DOM
14. 2026-07-18
    days on market $753,607 Active 84 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $753,607 Active 83 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $753,607 Active 82 DOM
17. 2026-07-15
    days on market $753,607 Active 81 DOM
18. 2026-07-13
    days on market $753,607 Active 79 DOM
19. 2026-07-13
    days on market $753,607 Active 78 DOM
20. 2026-07-11
    days on market $753,607 Active 77 DOM
21. 2026-07-10
    days on market $753,607 Active 76 DOM
22. 2026-07-09
    days on market $753,607 Active 75 DOM
23. 2026-07-07
    days on market $753,607 Active 73 DOM
24. 2026-07-06
    days on market $753,607 Active 72 DOM
25. 2026-07-05
    days on market $753,607 Active 71 DOM
26. 2026-07-03
    price $753,607 Active 69 DOM
27. 2026-07-03
    days on market $655,999 Active 69 DOM
28. 2026-07-02
    days on market $655,999 Active 68 DOM
29. 2026-07-01
    days on market $655,999 Active 67 DOM
30. 2026-06-30
    days on market $655,999 Active 66 DOM
31. 2026-06-29
    days on market $655,999 Active 65 DOM
32. 2026-06-28
    days on market $655,999 Active 64 DOM
33. 2026-06-27
    days on market $655,999 Active 63 DOM
34. 2026-06-27
    days on market $655,999 Active 62 DOM
35. 2026-06-25
    days on market $655,999 Active 60 DOM
36. 2026-06-22
    days on market $655,999 Active 58 DOM
37. 2026-06-22
    days on market $655,999 Active 57 DOM
38. 2026-06-18
    days on market $655,999 Active 54 DOM
39. 2026-06-17
    days on market $655,999 Active 53 DOM
40. 2026-06-16
    days on market $655,999 Active 52 DOM
41. 2026-06-15
    days on market $655,999 Active 51 DOM
42. 2026-06-13
    days on market $655,999 Active 49 DOM
43. 2026-06-13
    days on market $655,999 Active 48 DOM
44. 2026-06-10
    days on market $655,999 Active 46 DOM
45. 2026-06-09
    days on market $655,999 Active 45 DOM
46. 2026-06-08
    days on market $655,999 Active 44 DOM
47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $655,999 Active 43 DOM
48. 2026-06-03
    days on market $655,999 Active 39 DOM
49. 2026-06-02
    days on market $655,999 Active 38 DOM
50. 2026-06-01
    days on market $655,999 Active 37 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $46,748
• − Mortgage interest: −$42,214
• − Property taxes: −$11,304
• − Insurance: −$3,768
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,740
• − Management: −$3,740
• − Depreciation: −$21,923
• Taxable loss: −$39,941
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$9,586
• After-tax cash flow: $-15,980/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-family home is in excellent condition with a modern design and well-maintained exterior. It is move-in ready and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint and landscaping improvements to further enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑

C Composite school gradezoned avg 69/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary B.d. Gullett Elementary School A FL #211/2,144 Nat'l #2,011/41,679 Middle R. Dan Nolan Middle School A FL #38/571 Nat'l #472/14,009 High Lakewood Ranch High School C FL #135/667 Nat'l #4,413/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakewood Ranch

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakewood Ranch, FL
• County: Manatee County · 447,342 people
• City population: 52,177
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,980
• Household income: $119,911
• Rent vs Own: 21.7% rent · 78.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Asian 3% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -100.84%
• Current HPI: 265.946
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.17%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $655,999

Exterior

• Parking: 3-car garage / 3 parking spaces
• Home design: Single-family residence (Richmond plan)Spec inventory home
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2724Located at 18223 Kettle Lake Pl, Bradenton, FL 34211

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec-built Richmond plan