551 Summit Trail Trl #179 · Granby, CO 80446

$119,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 970 sqft · Manufactured · 68 Days on market

Built 2020 Good condition ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This one is priced to sell--don't miss it! This stunning property offers comfort, style, and breathtaking surroundings. Step inside to a large, spacious living room that's perfect for both relaxing and entertaining. The open-concept kitchen is designed for both function and appeal, featuring a seamless flow into the main living space. Start your mornings with a cup of coffee while taking in the peaceful views of the surrounding mountain ranges. This home offers two bedrooms and two bathrooms, providing a comfortable and practical layout ideal for full-time living or a mountain getaway. Step outside to a lovely outdoor area where you can unwind and soak in the incredible mountain views. Whe

Key facts

• Open-concept kitchen
• Outdoor area
• Mountain views

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• OUTDOOR AREA
• MOUNTAIN VIEWS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in the Smith Creek Crossing subdivision
• Financial info: Land is leased with a monthly land lease payment
• HOA & community: Community trash service; Community spa / hot tub; Storage available; Fitness center; Snow removal

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service on property
• Home design: Manufactured home; One level
• Exterior features: Level lot; Shed(s) on property; Private maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Range and oven; Dishwasher
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One three-quarter bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Natural gas heating
• Interior features: Washer/Dryer included; Refrigerator; Range and oven; Dishwasher
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on main level; Washer/Dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $762 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $113k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.2% vs local median 1.4% in Granby — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#85 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: commute D+, amenities F, health & safety F.
• East Grand School District No. 2 (rural): math 36% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #17 of 86 in CO (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Granby Elementary School (math 34% / reading 52%, grade F, #300 of 966 statewide, top 32%, 331 students, 38% FRL); East Grand Middle School (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #84 of 270 statewide, top 32%, 290 students, 22% FRL); Middle Park High School (math 42% / reading 67%, grade C-, #78 of 381 statewide, top 22%, 406 students, 20% FRL).
• Market conditions: 429 active listings in the ZIP; 294 units permitted in Grand County in 2024 (82 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Grand County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $112,706 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.81% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.72%
• DSCR: 2.41
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.87×
• Total profit: $29,231
• Equity at exit: $17,877

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.63×
• Total profit: $88,417
• Equity at exit: $10,367

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 80446

• Home prices YoY: -23.1%
• Active inventory: 429
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,172 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$150 /mo · $1,798/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$456
• Net cashflow: $762

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,207

Max offer price $119,900

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $845	-5% $804	+0% $762	+5% $721	+10% $679
Rent	-10% $591	-5% $676	+0% $762	+5% $848	+10% $934
Rate	-1.0pp $823	-0.5pp $793	base $762	+0.5pp $731	+1.0pp $700

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $119,900 Active 68 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,900 Active 65 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,900 Active 64 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,900 Active 63 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,900 Active 62 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $119,900 Active 60 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $119,900 Active 57 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,900 Active 56 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,900 Active 55 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $119,900 Active 54 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $119,900 Active 51 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $119,900 Active 50 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,900 Active 49 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,900 Active 48 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,900 Active 47 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,900 Active 46 DOM
17. 2026-05-19
    price $119,900
18. 2026-05-13
    status Active
19. 2026-05-13
    price $124,500
20. 2026-04-30
    historical
21. 2026-04-27
    status Active
22. 2026-04-15
    historical
23. 2026-03-19
    listed $129,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥81°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,067
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$1,798
• − Insurance: −$2,102
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,085
• − Management: −$2,085
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable income: $7,792
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,870
• After-tax cash flow: $7,277/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This move-in-ready manufactured home offers a spacious and well-maintained living space with modern amenities and stunning mountain views.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace ceiling fans with energy-efficient models — Saves on energy costs and improves aesthetics
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and adds modern appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace ceiling fans with energy-efficient models — Saves on energy costs and improves aesthetics ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and adds modern appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Grand School District No. 2
• NCES district ID: 0804320
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $64,903
• Composite: 41.64/100
• National rank: #3424
• State rank: #17 of 86 in CO

Livability — Granby

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #85
• US rank: #7574

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D+ Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Granby, CO
• County: Grand County · 5,874 people
• City population: 4,017
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 4,017
• Household income: $74,973
• Rent vs Own: 33.1% rent · 66.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 105.0

Population outlook (Grand County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,498 people
• By 2030: 14,215 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 13,225 · -8.8%
• By 2050: 12,186 · -15.9%
• By 2075: 10,196 · -29.7%
• By 2100: 8,326 · -42.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Two or more races 19% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 8% Portuguese 6% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Grand

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.8% · Other 3.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.3pp no change · 2008: -1.1pp · 2024: -0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.8 2020: R+1.8 2016: R+13.5 2012: R+7.2 2008: R+1.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -104.78%
• Current HPI: 347.8691
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

-7.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $119,900 GCAR
• 2026-05-13 Relisted — GCAR
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $124,500 GCAR
• 2026-04-30 Delisted — GCAR
• 2026-04-27 Relisted — GCAR
• 2026-04-15 Delisted — GCAR
• 2026-03-19 Listed $129,500 GCAR