The McGinnis Plan · Vass, NC 28394

$313,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,372 sqft · SingleFamily · 188 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Cash flow +4.2/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The McGinnis is a two-story plan with a welcoming wide entry leading to a traditional dining room perfect for entertaining. The kitchen and family room live to the rear of the home, with convenient access to the yard. Upstairs, you'll find the spacious owner's suite and three secondary bedrooms, each with walk-in closets. A large secondary bathroom and ample laundry room are located off the open loft. For flexible living, a study or fifth bedroom and full bath are optional on the first floor.

Key facts

• Access to the yard
• Walk-in closets
• Wide entry

Tags

• WIDE ENTRY
• TRADITIONAL DINING ROOM
• KITCHEN AND FAMILY ROOM
• ACCESS TO THE YARD
• OWNER'S SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSETS

🏗️ New construction. The $313,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $452,088.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $314k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $276k (12.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $241k (23.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $241k (23.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.1% vs local median 4.0% in Vass — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#593 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D, amenities F.
• Moore County Schools (rural): math 48% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #58 of 178 in NC (top 33%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Vass-Lakeview Elementary (math 57% / reading 51%, grade C, #328 of 1,410 statewide, top 24%, 460 students, 42% FRL); Crain'S Creek Middle (math 37% / reading 47%, grade D-, #199 of 475 statewide, top 43%, 592 students, 51% FRL); Union Pines High (math 63% / reading 70%, grade B, #150 of 535 statewide, top 28%, 1,438 students, 34% FRL) — zoned schools at 42% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 290 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 51d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 941 units permitted in Moore County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Moore County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 188 days — a 12% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $241,051 (23.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 188 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.53% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.57%
• DSCR: 0.49
• GRM: 15.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $452,088
• List price: $313,990
• Delta: -30.55%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6 S Allyson Pl	0.63mi	4/2.5	2,345 (-1%)	6mo	$460,000	$196	64
454 James St	1.12mi	4/3.0	2,281 (-4%)	0mo	$480,000	$210	56
3 Cordelia Way	0.69mi	4/2.5	2,433 (+3%)	12mo	$410,000	$169	53
206 Forester Dr	1.12mi	4/3.5	2,349 (-1%)	14mo	$422,817	$180	48
108 Woodford Ln	1.11mi	4/3.5	2,443 (+3%)	12mo	$461,000	$189	46
232 Forester Dr	0.99mi	4/4.0	2,349 (-1%)	18mo	$436,000	$186	42
236 Forester Dr	0.98mi	4/3.5	2,415 (+2%)	21mo	$449,700	$186	40
237 Forester Dr	0.98mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,471 (+4%)	20mo	$444,778	$180	36
224 Forester Dr	1.04mi	4/3.5	2,811 (+18%)	5mo	$495,000	$176	32
4 Cordelia Way	0.73mi	4/3.5	2,658 (+12%)	15mo	$475,000	$179	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -37.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.19×
• Total profit: $-150,922
• Equity at exit: $67,408

10-year hold

• IRR: -54.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.83×
• Total profit: $-231,325
• Equity at exit: $39,088

Cash invested: $126,585 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 9 active · 2 under contract
• Median asking: $293,990 ($150/sqft)
• Median days on market: 188 d
• This list price: 67% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +26.8% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 28394

• Active inventory: 290
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,411 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,371
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$565 /mo · $6,781/yr
• Insurance: −$188
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$506
• Net cashflow: $-1,220

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,955

Max offer price $275,556

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-908	-5% $-1,064	+0% $-1,220	+5% $-1,376	+10% $-1,532
Rent	-10% $-1,410	-5% $-1,315	+0% $-1,220	+5% $-1,125	+10% $-1,030
Rate	-1.0pp $-992	-0.5pp $-1,105	base $-1,220	+0.5pp $-1,337	+1.0pp $-1,456

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $113,022
• Closing costs: $13,563
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
233 Forester Dr Vass, NC	3.0	2.0	1794	$2,299	$1.28	51d	1	1.02mi
821 Conductor Ct Vass, NC	3.0	2.5	1789	$1,965	$1.10	31d	1	1.28mi
755 Conductor Ct Vass, NC	4.0	2.5	1925	$1,900	$0.99	51d	1	1.41mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $316,900

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Natural gas and electric availableCentral electric cooling
• Home design: New construction - Plan: The McGinnisSingle-family plan located at 3300 US Highway 1, Vass NC
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2372 square feet

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas, electric, and heat pump heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Open living area (plan name: The McGinnis)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $313,990 Active 188 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $313,990 Active 187 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $313,990 Active 186 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $313,990 Active 185 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $313,990 Active 184 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $313,990 Active 182 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $313,990 Active 181 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $313,990 Active 180 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $313,990 Active 179 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $313,990 Active 178 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $313,990 Active 177 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $313,990 Active 176 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $313,990 Active 175 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $313,990 Active 174 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $313,990 Active 173 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $313,990 Active 172 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $313,990 Active 171 DOM
18. 2026-10-22
    days on market $313,990 Active 170 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $313,990 Active 169 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $313,990 Active 168 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $313,990 Active 167 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $313,990 Active 166 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $313,990 Active 165 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $313,990 Active 164 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $313,990 Active 163 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $313,990 Active 162 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $313,990 Active 161 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $313,990 Active 160 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $313,990 Active 159 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $313,990 Active 158 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $313,990 Active 157 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $313,990 Active 156 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $313,990 Active 155 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $313,990 Active 154 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $313,990 Active 153 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $313,990 Active 152 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $313,990 Active 151 DOM
38. 2026-10-02
    price $313,990 Active 150 DOM
39. 2026-10-01
    days on market $323,990 Active 150 DOM
40. 2026-09-30
    days on market $323,990 Active 149 DOM
41. 2026-09-29
    days on market $323,990 Active 148 DOM
42. 2026-09-28
    days on market $323,990 Active 147 DOM
43. 2026-09-27
    days on market $323,990 Active 146 DOM
44. 2026-09-26
    days on market $323,990 Active 145 DOM
45. 2026-09-25
    days on market $323,990 Active 144 DOM
46. 2026-09-24
    days on market $323,990 Active 143 DOM
47. 2026-09-24
    days on market $323,990 Active 142 DOM
48. 2026-09-22
    days on market $323,990 Active 141 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $323,990 Active 139 DOM
50. 2026-09-18
    days on market $323,990 Active 137 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,926
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,324
• − Property taxes: −$6,781
• − Insurance: −$2,260
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,314
• − Management: −$2,314
• − Depreciation: −$13,152
• Taxable loss: −$23,219
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,573
• After-tax cash flow: $-9,067/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This two-story home is in good condition with no visible repairs needed. It has a good exterior and interior, and the landscaping can be improved to increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Landscaping the front yard — A well-maintained front yard can improve curb appeal and attract more potential buyers or renters. ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 54/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Vass-Lakeview Elementary C NC #328/1,410 Nat'l #10,700/41,679 Middle Crain's Creek Middle D- NC #199/475 Nat'l #5,398/14,009 High Union Pines High B NC #150/535 Nat'l #2,657/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Moore County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3703090
• Math proficiency: 48% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $50,333
• Composite: 43.63/100
• National rank: #2967
• State rank: #58 of 178 in NC

D Composite livability gradescore 57/100

Livability — Vass

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #593
• US rank: #21646

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing A Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Moore County · 106,902 people
• City population: 5,936
• Metro: Pinehurst-Southern Pines, NC
• Population (ZIP): 5,936
• Household income: $79,643
• Rent vs Own: 20.5% rent · 79.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 3% of renters

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Population outlook (Moore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 106,902 people
• By 2030: 113,134 · +5.8%
• By 2040: 125,682 · +17.6%
• By 2050: 137,811 · +28.9%
• By 2075: 164,387 · +53.8%
• By 2100: 175,595 · +64.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Two or more races 10% Black 9% Hispanic / Latino 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Arabic 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Moore

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.1pp toward R · 2008: -21.4pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+27.4 2016: R+29.6 2012: R+28.1 2008: R+21.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -106.99%
• Current HPI: 160.0419
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Pinehurst-Southern Pines, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $316,900

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Natural gas and electric availableCentral electric cooling
• Home design: New construction - Plan: The McGinnisSingle-family plan located at 3300 US Highway 1, Vass NC
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2372 square feet

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas, electric, and heat pump heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Open living area (plan name: The McGinnis)