271 Carob Way #100 · Pacheco, CA 94553

$199,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · Manufactured · 7 Days on market

Built 2006 Good condition Est $196k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.1/10.0
• ARV discount +6.7/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Spacious North-East facing mobile home located in the sought after Concord Cascades Family Park. This mobile home was built in 2006. It comes with 3 bedrooms and 2 baths plus dual pane windows along with central air/central heat. This well maintained mobile park has lots of amenities: swimming pools, club house, hot tub and much more!

Key facts

• Hot tub
• Swimming pools
• Club house

Tags

• NORTH-EAST FACING
• DUAL PANE WINDOWS
• CENTRAL AIR
• SWIMMING POOLS
• CLUB HOUSE
• HOT TUB

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Pets allowed: cats and dogs; Community clubhouse; Community pool; Guest parking; Park name: CONCORD CASCADES

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage spaces; 2 covered parking spaces; Carport
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured in-park (mobile home); Double wide; Faces northeast; Single-story
• Construction: Wood siding construction; Model: 4211-CT
• Exterior features: Fenced lot; Level lot; In-ground gunite pool with pool house and fenced pool area

Interior

• Kitchen: Tile counters; Dishwasher; Microwave; Free-standing range; Refrigerator; Skylight in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (street level)
• Flooring: Engineered wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Primary bathroom with stall shower; Other bath(s) with shower over tub
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: No additional rooms; Double pane windows; Skylights
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room; Washer and dryer included; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $199k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $422 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $199k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#42 in CA, #1,544 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, cost of living D+, schools D.
• Mt. Diablo Unified (suburban): math 36% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #202 of 517 in CA (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 185 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.41% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.28%
• DSCR: 1.81
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $195,520
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
341 Vista Del Rio #102	0.16mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,120 (+8%)	5mo	$205,000	$183	70
195 Cairo Dr #52	0.21mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,036 (-0%)	17mo	$130,000	$125	70
274 Minoru Dr	0.02mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,120 (+8%)	14mo	$198,000	$177	70
288 Safari Way #210	0.17mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,100 (+6%)	10mo	$230,000	$209	70
120 Sahara Dr	0.30mi	2/2.0 (-1)	960 (-8%)	3mo	$194,000	$202	66
220 Aria Dr #20	0.12mi	2/2.0 (-1)	928 (-11%)	9mo	$199,000	$214	64
241 Aria #8	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,152 (+11%)	18mo	$210,000	$182	64
260 Kuwait Way	0.14mi	2/2.0 (-1)	960 (-8%)	16mo	$180,000	$188	62
160 Sahara Dr	0.24mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (+11%)	6mo	$182,400	$158	61
196 Damascus Loop #51	0.22mi	2/2.0 (-1)	960 (-8%)	17mo	$191,500	$199	58
247 Kaimu St #247	0.21mi	2/2.0 (-1)	960 (-8%)	19mo	$220,000	$229	57
260 Tanbor Way	0.17mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (+11%)	21mo	$105,000	$91	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.63% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-3,267
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.73×
• Total profit: $40,467
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94553

• Rents YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 185
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,815 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$249 /mo · $2,985/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$591
• Net cashflow: $422

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,281

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2838 Loma Vista Ave Concord, CA	3.0	2.0	1260	$2,995	$2.38	24d	1	0.94mi
2007 Olivera Rd Unit C Concord, CA	2.0	1.5	975	$2,700	$2.77	5d	1	1.13mi
2069 Olivera Rd Concord, CA	2.0	1.5	975	$2,450	$2.51	24d	1	1.27mi
2756 Argyll Ave Unit C Concord, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$2,000	$2.22	24d	1	1.30mi
630 Tempe Ct Pleasant Hill, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	943	$3,265	$3.46	2d	5	1.35mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-15
   status $199,000 Pending 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   remarks 336-char remark
6. 2026-06-08
   listed $199,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone AE · 70% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 13 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,780
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$2,985
• − Insurance: −$6,114
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,702
• − Management: −$2,702
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable income: $2,340
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$562
• After-tax cash flow: $4,503/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained mobile home in Concord Cascades Family Park is ready for a fresh coat of paint and new window blinds to enhance its curb appeal and resale value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint exterior — enhances curb appeal and resale value
• Both replace window blinds — improves aesthetics and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint exterior — enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both replace window blinds — improves aesthetics and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mt. Diablo Unified
• NCES district ID: 0626370
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $77,494
• Composite: 37.5/100
• National rank: #4401
• State rank: #202 of 517 in CA

Livability — Pacheco

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #42
• US rank: #1544

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute D Cost of living D+ Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pacheco, CA
• County: Contra Costa County · 1,059,880 people
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 48,643
• Household income: $124,130
• Rent vs Own: 27.7% rent · 72.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1207.0

Population outlook (Contra Costa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,287,720 people
• By 2030: 1,364,937 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 1,506,209 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 1,624,373 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,853,193 · +43.9%
• By 2100: 1,901,231 · +47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 17% Asian 10% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 8% Chinese 2% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Contra Costa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+38.0) · D 67.3% · R 29.4% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 37.8pp · 2024: 38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+38.0 2020: D+45.3 2016: D+43.5 2012: D+33.7 2008: D+37.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -736.61%
• Current HPI: 296.2457
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.63%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $199,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR