100 Happiness Holw · Cape Royale, TX 77331

$99,609

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,162 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 205 Days on market

Built 1975 7,148 sqft lot $86/sqft · 44% below area Est $177k · 44% under ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

NEAR THE LAKE! Welcome to this charming two-story home nestled in the Coldspring area. Boasting 1,162 square feet of living space, this cozy abode features two bedrooms and one bathroom, offering ample potential for comfortable living. While in need of some repairs and is being sold AS IS it has a lot of potential for customization and transformation into a dream living space. Don't miss your chance to make this house your own and unlock its full potential. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream home.

Key facts

• Two story home
• 7,148 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• TWO STORY HOME
• POTENTIAL FOR CUSTOMIZATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $728 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.1% vs local median 2.5% in Cape Royale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,203 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, housing A, cost of living B+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Coldspring-Oakhurst CISD (rural): math 18% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #732 of 826 in TX (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 362 active listings in the ZIP; 575 units permitted in San Jacinto County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $689 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Jacinto County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 205 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,655 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 205 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.73% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.32%
• DSCR: 2.39
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $176,852
• List price: $99,609
• Delta: -43.68%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 18 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
61 Happiness Holw	0.05mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,000 (-14%)	20mo	$160,000	$160	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.08×
• Total profit: $30,213
• Equity at exit: $14,852

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.08×
• Total profit: $85,976
• Equity at exit: $8,612

Cash invested: $27,891 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77331

• Active inventory: 362
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,724 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$522
• Tax from tax record: −$70 /mo · $839/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$362
• Net cashflow: $728

Break-even live

Break-even rent $802

Max offer price $99,609

Occupancy floor 53%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,902
• Closing costs: $2,988
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $99,609 Active 205 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,609 Active 204 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,609 Active 203 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,609 Active 202 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,609 Active 201 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,609 Active 199 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,609 Active 198 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $99,609 Active 196 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,609 Active 195 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $99,609 Active 194 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,609 Active 193 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,609 Active 189 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,609 Active 188 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,609 Active 187 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,609 Active 186 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $99,609 Active 185 DOM
17. 2026-02-19
    price $99,609 686-char remark

    Show marketing remark (686 chars)

    NEAR THE LAKE! Welcome to this charming two-story home nestled in the Coldspring area. Boasting 1,162 square feet of living space, this cozy abode features two bedrooms and one bathroom, offering ample potential for comfortable living. While in need of some repairs and is being sold AS IS it has a lot of potential for customization and transformation into a dream living space. Don't miss your chance to make this house your own and unlock its full potential. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream home.

18. 2025-11-26
    listed $109,609 Active 686-char remark

    Show marketing remark (686 chars)

    NEAR THE LAKE! Welcome to this charming two-story home nestled in the Coldspring area. Boasting 1,162 square feet of living space, this cozy abode features two bedrooms and one bathroom, offering ample potential for comfortable living. While in need of some repairs and is being sold AS IS it has a lot of potential for customization and transformation into a dream living space. Don't miss your chance to make this house your own and unlock its full potential. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream home.

19. 2014-05-08
    soldstatus
20. 1998-11-20
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $839 · $70/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,823 · $152/mo
• Expected delta: +$983/yr (+$82/mo · 117.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,684
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,580
• − Property taxes: −$839
• − Insurance: −$498
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,655
• − Management: −$1,655
• − Depreciation: −$2,898
• Taxable income: $7,560
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,814
• After-tax cash flow: $6,921/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Coldspring-Oakhurst CISD
• NCES district ID: 4814520
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $46,916
• Composite: 20.07/100
• National rank: #8653
• State rank: #732 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cape Royale

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1203
• US rank: #21032

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment D- Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,348

Population outlook (San Jacinto County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 29,069 people
• By 2030: 29,750 · +2.3%
• By 2040: 30,714 · +5.7%
• By 2050: 31,010 · +6.7%
• By 2075: 31,616 · +8.8%
• By 2100: 29,874 · +2.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Black 13% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Jacinto

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.3) · D 17.0% · R 82.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.0pp toward R · 2008: -38.3pp · 2024: -65.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.3 2020: R+61.9 2016: R+58.4 2012: R+48.9 2008: R+38.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -146.98%
• Current HPI: 199.0493
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-9.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $99,609 HARMLS
• 2025-11-26 Listed $109,609 HARMLS
• 2014-05-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1998-11-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $839 · -26.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.