16819 Woodgrove Rd · Round Hill, VA 20141

$399,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,352 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 39 Days on market

Built 1940 0.86 ac lot ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.7/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 16819 Woodgrove Road, a 4-bedroom, 1-bath ranch-style home situated on . 86 ac in the Purcellville area of Loudoun County and zoned for Woodgrove High School. This property presents a clear opportunity for buyers seeking sweat equity or a value-add investment in a highly desirable location. The home sits on a spacious lot with mature trees, open lawn area, and easy access to commuting routes. A detached shed provides additional storage or workspace, and the outdoor setting offers ample room for future improvements or enhancements. Inside, the home features a functional single-level layout with four bedrooms and one full bath, along with a rough-in for a second bathroom. A full b

Key facts

• 0.86 acre lot
• 4 parking spots
• Built 1940

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $400k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-140 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $375k (6.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $312k (21.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $312k (21.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 2.3% in Round Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#107 in VA, #3,294 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Loudoun County Public School District (suburban): math 64% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #7 of 131 in VA (top 5%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 34 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 3,317 units permitted in Loudoun County in 2024 (1,818 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 18% of the median local income ($211k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Loudoun County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($388k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $75k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $312,226 (21.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.50%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-73,781
• Equity at exit: $59,626

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-75,946
• Equity at exit: $34,576

Cash invested: $111,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20141

• Home prices YoY: -10.1%
• Active inventory: 34
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,122 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,097
• Tax from tax record: −$343 /mo · $4,117/yr
• Insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$656
• Net cashflow: $-140

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,300

Max offer price $375,130

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $86	-5% $-27	+0% $-140	+5% $-253	+10% $-367
Rent	-10% $-387	-5% $-264	+0% $-140	+5% $-17	+10% $106
Rate	-1.0pp $61	-0.5pp $-39	base $-140	+0.5pp $-244	+1.0pp $-349

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,975
• Closing costs: $11,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-03-03
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-28
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-02-24
   price $399,900
4. 2026-02-24
   status Active
5. 2026-02-04
   historical Active Under Contract
6. 2026-01-21
   price $424,900
7. 2025-12-31
   listed $474,900 Active
8. 2025-12-19
   historical $474,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,117 · $343/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,117 · $343/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,467
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,401
• − Property taxes: −$4,117
• − Insurance: −$2,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,997
• − Management: −$2,997
• − Depreciation: −$11,633
• Taxable loss: −$8,678
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,083
• After-tax cash flow: $400/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Loudoun County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102250
• Math proficiency: 64% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 79% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $121,927
• Composite: 67.43/100
• National rank: #379
• State rank: #7 of 131 in VA

Livability — Round Hill

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #107
• US rank: #3294

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Loudoun County · 393,062 people
• City population: 8,359
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 8,359
• Household income: $210,563
• Rent vs Own: 7.5% rent · 92.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 7.0

Population outlook (Loudoun County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 503,590 people
• By 2030: 568,852 · +13.0%
• By 2040: 701,480 · +39.3%
• By 2050: 828,841 · +64.6%
• By 2075: 1,105,645 · +119.6%
• By 2100: 1,265,472 · +151.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 3% Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Loudoun

• 2024 margin: D (+16.3) · D 56.6% · R 40.4% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +8.0pp toward D · 2008: 8.2pp · 2024: 16.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.3 2020: D+25.0 2016: D+16.8 2012: D+4.5 2008: D+8.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -35.51%
• Current HPI: 314.9007
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-15.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-03 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-28 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $399,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-24 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-04 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-21 Price Changed $424,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-31 Listed $474,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-19 Coming Soon $474,900 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,117 · +0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.