1368 Sundance Mountain Rd · New Market, VA 22844

$149,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 832 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1977 2.70 ac lot $40/mo HOA · 3% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.2/30.0
• Appreciation +9.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Here's a discounted light handyman special cabin that is convienent to everything, yet nestled in the mountains, bordering the George Washington & Jefferson National Forest. This property is a short drive from I-81, I-66, Harrisonburg and Winchester, giving it fantastic access to everything in northern and central Virginia. Surrounded by outdoor recreation, hiking trails and the George Washington & Jefferson National Forest, the property features direct access to a nearby trailhead, nearby spring swimming and fishing pond and close proximity to the Shenandoah River and several wineries and breweries, making it an ideal mountain escape. Built in 1977, this two bedroom, 1 bath hom

Key facts

• Private 2.7 acre lot
• 2.7 acre lot
• Built 1977

Tags

• PRIVATE 2.7 ACRE LOT

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA fee $480 annually

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Electric available; Water available; Shared well water; Septic system
• Home design: Detached structure; Composite roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Year built (assessor)
• Construction: Wood siding construction
• Exterior features: Deck(s); Mountainous setting; Trees/wooded; Secluded; Adjoins National Forest

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard electric heating; Electric cooling fuel; Electric hot water
• Interior features: Wood walls; Not furnished

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $161 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $141k (5.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $141k (5.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 2.5% in New Market — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#372 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A, health & safety A; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• Shenandoah County Public School District (town): math 46% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #91 of 131 in VA (top 70%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 224 units permitted in Shenandoah County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (9.8% local appreciation)).
• Shenandoah County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (9.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $67k; list at $149k implies a 121% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,553 (5.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.63%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $320,320
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1265 Sundance Mountain Rd	0.12mi	2/1.0	766 (-8%)	21mo	$295,000	$385	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.78% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.14×
• Total profit: $89,177
• Equity at exit: $131,885

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.8%
• Equity multiple: 7.09×
• Total profit: $253,911
• Equity at exit: $281,956

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22844

• Home prices YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 41
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,406 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax from tax record: −$66 /mo · $790/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$40
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$295
• Net cashflow: $161

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,202

Max offer price $149,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $40 · $480/yr

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $149,000 Pending 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $149,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $149,000 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $149,000 Active 2 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   remarks 691-char remark
8. 2026-06-02
   listed $149,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $790 · $66/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,222 · $102/mo
• Expected delta: +$432/yr (+$36/mo · 54.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 4 d/yr ≥94°F today · 10 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,866
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$790
• − Insurance: −$745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,349
• − Management: −$1,349
• − HOA: −$480
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable loss: −$528
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$127
• After-tax cash flow: $2,060/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shenandoah County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103510
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $50,207
• Composite: 44.42/100
• National rank: #2811
• State rank: #91 of 131 in VA

Livability — New Market

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #372
• US rank: #15038

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment D Housing B- Health & safety A User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,674

Population outlook (Shenandoah County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 44,891 people
• By 2030: 45,630 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 46,708 · +4.0%
• By 2050: 47,072 · +4.9%
• By 2075: 47,418 · +5.6%
• By 2100: 43,707 · -2.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 3% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Danish 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shenandoah

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.2) · D 28.4% · R 70.6% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.8pp toward R · 2008: -26.5pp · 2024: -42.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.2 2020: R+40.6 2016: R+43.3 2012: R+31.4 2008: R+26.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.78%
• Current HPI: 328.5512
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+121.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $149,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1999-12-16 Sold (Public Records) $67,300 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $790 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.