Plan 1523 Plan · Manvel, TX 77578

$264,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,523 sqft · SingleFamily · 161 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr.

Key facts

• Gas range
• 2 garage spots
• Listed 160 days

Tags

• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GRANITE KITCHEN COUNTERTOPS
• WATERSENSE LABELED FAUCETS
• TANKLESS WATER HEATER
• GAS RANGE
• KITCHEN USB CHARGING PORT

🏗️ New construction. The $264,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $273,836.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $265k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-210 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $243k (8.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (19.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $213k (19.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 2.5% in Manvel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#544 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Alvin ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #255 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Alvin H S (math 35% / reading 48%, grade F, #767 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 2,821 students, 65% FRL) — zoned schools average 65% FRL vs 48% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 1437 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 55d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 161 days — a 12% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $212,912 (19.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 161 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.29%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $273,836
• List price: $264,995
• Delta: -3.23%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5 Rodeo Bend Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,530 (+0%)	1mo	$266,000	$174	91
54 Rodeo Crest Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,530 (+0%)	4mo	$235,000	$154	82
8 Santa Clara Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,530 (+0%)	9mo	$275,000	$180	82
37 Rodeo Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,688 (+11%)	1mo	$254,900	$151	78
61 Rodeo Crest Dr	0.25mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,575 (+3%)	2mo	$305,000	$194	76
16 Morro Bay Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,688 (+11%)	0mo	$265,000	$157	61
9 Alyssa Palms Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,632 (+7%)	1mo	$310,000	$190	54
55 San Simeon Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,726 (+13%)	9mo	$249,999	$145	52
6219 Royal Palm Dr	0.34mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,746 (+15%)	1mo	$399,888	$229	50
18 Carmel Chase Ct	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,696 (+11%)	7mo	$295,000	$174	50
3519 Windmill Palm Dr	0.64mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,687 (+11%)	1mo	$399,888	$237	42
3506 Windmill Palm Dr	0.66mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,746 (+15%)	7mo	$379,900	$218	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.77% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-58,234
• Equity at exit: $40,830

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-69,843
• Equity at exit: $23,676

Cash invested: $76,674 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 15 active · 11 under contract
• Months of supply: 6.0 mo (17%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $292,995 ($165/sqft)
• Median days on market: 66 d
• This list price: 20% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +8.9% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77578

• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 1437
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,129 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,436
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$342 /mo · $4,108/yr
• Insurance: −$114
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$447
• Net cashflow: $-210

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,395

Max offer price $243,389

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-21	-5% $-116	+0% $-210	+5% $-305	+10% $-400
Rent	-10% $-379	-5% $-295	+0% $-210	+5% $-126	+10% $-42
Rate	-1.0pp $-73	-0.5pp $-141	base $-210	+0.5pp $-281	+1.0pp $-354

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,459
• Closing costs: $8,215
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
64 Atascadero Dr Manvel, TX	2.0	2.0	2243	$1,650	$0.74	17d	1	0.38mi
121 Rodeo Dr Manvel, TX	3.0	3.0	2015	$2,300	$1.14	93d	1	0.49mi
21 Wheeler Ridge Cir Manvel, TX	3.0	2.0	1275	$1,875	$1.47	54d	1	0.86mi
57 Spring Ln Manvel, TX	4.0	2.0	1875	$2,450	$1.31	93d	1	0.95mi
12607 Rio Grande Ln Rosharon, TX	4.0	3.0	1968	$2,279	$1.16	25d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $264,995 Active 161 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $264,995 Active 159 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $264,995 Active 158 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $264,995 Active 157 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $264,995 Active 156 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $264,995 Active 153 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $264,995 Active 151 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $264,995 Active 150 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   pricedays on market $264,995 Active 148 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $263,995 Active 146 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $263,995 Active 145 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $263,995 Active 144 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $263,995 Active 143 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $263,995 Active 142 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $263,995 Active 140 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $263,995 Active 139 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $263,995 Active 138 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $263,995 Active 137 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $263,995 Active 136 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $263,995 Active 135 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $263,995 Active 134 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $263,995 Active 133 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $263,995 Active 132 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $263,995 Active 131 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $263,995 Active 129 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $263,995 Active 128 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $263,995 Active 127 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $263,995 Active 126 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $263,995 Active 125 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $263,995 Active 124 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $263,995 Active 123 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $263,995 Active 122 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $263,995 Active 121 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $263,995 Active 120 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $263,995 Active 119 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    pricedays on market $263,995 Active 118 DOM
37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $260,995 Active 116 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $260,995 Active 114 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $260,995 Active 113 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $260,995 Active 110 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $260,995 Active 109 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $260,995 Active 108 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $260,995 Active 107 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $260,995 Active 105 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $260,995 Active 104 DOM
46. 2026-06-09
    days on market $260,995 Active 101 DOM
47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $260,995 Active 100 DOM
48. 2026-06-07
    days on market $260,995 Active 99 DOM
49. 2026-06-04
    days on market $260,995 Active 96 DOM
50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $260,995 Active 95 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,549
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,339
• − Property taxes: −$4,108
• − Insurance: −$1,369
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,044
• − Management: −$2,044
• − Depreciation: −$7,966
• Taxable loss: −$7,320
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,757
• After-tax cash flow: $-768/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good ROI with updates that can enhance both resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace outdoor lighting — Modern lighting can improve curb appeal and safety ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Smart home devices can increase convenience and property value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 42/100

Zoned Schools

High Alvin H S F TX #767/1,632 Nat'l #7,907/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alvin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808090
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $66,740
• Composite: 38.96/100
• National rank: #4080
• State rank: #255 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 67/100

Livability — Manvel

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #544
• US rank: #10576

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Manvel, TX
• County: Brazoria County · 420,414 people
• City population: 30,210
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,210
• Household income: $134,016
• Rent vs Own: 16.9% rent · 83.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 20% of renters

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Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 36% Black 30% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 15% Asian 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18%
• Common ancestry: Norwegian 2% Subsaharan African 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 13% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Vietnamese 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -154.15%
• Current HPI: 218.4264
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.77%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-1.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $265,995 Zillow
• 2026-03-07 Price Changed $275,995 Zillow
• 2026-03-01 Listed $270,995 Zillow