Raleigh Plan · Ellenton, FL 34219

$408,400

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,896 sqft · SingleFamily · 613 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Spacious loft
• 2 garage spots
• Listed 613 days

Tags

• MODERN OPEN-CONCEPT DESIGN
• SPRAWLING OWNER'S SUITE
• SPACIOUS LOFT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: List price available (listing active as of May 21, 2026)

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family plan (Raleigh)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms, 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Plan: Raleigh (new construction inventory type: Plan); Living area 2,896

🏗️ New construction. The $408,400 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $538,656.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $408k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-866 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $362k (11.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $359k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#232 in FL, #3,666 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Virgil Mills Elementary School (math 69% / reading 65%, grade B+, #450 of 2,144 statewide, top 22%, 818 students, 43% FRL); Buffalo Creek Middle School (math 59% / reading 51%, grade B-, #180 of 571 statewide, top 32%, 1,127 students, 44% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools at 50% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2194 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 613 days — a 12% lower offer ($359k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $359,392 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 613 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.36%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.89%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $538,656
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9428 Bella Mar Trl	0.34mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,756 (-5%)	2mo	$425,000	$154	68
8522 Salmar Loop	0.37mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,174 (+10%)	1mo	$825,076	$260	57
9013 Sandy Shores St	0.48mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,699 (-7%)	2mo	$535,000	$198	56
9436 Bella Mar Trl	0.32mi	4/3.0 (-1)	3,313 (+14%)	1mo	$473,000	$143	53
9427 Bella Mar Trl	0.36mi	4/2.0 (-1)	3,313 (+14%)	1mo	$477,000	$144	52
7438 Sea Manatee St	0.60mi	4/4.0 (-1)	3,099 (+7%)	0mo	$559,990	$181	49
7470 Sea Manatee St	0.60mi	4/4.0 (-1)	3,099 (+7%)	1mo	$599,990	$194	49
7450 Sea Manatee St	0.60mi	4/4.0 (-1)	3,099 (+7%)	1mo	$574,990	$186	48
7441 Sea Manatee St	0.60mi	4/4.0 (-1)	2,689 (-7%)	3mo	$530,000	$197	47
7490 Sea Manatee St	0.60mi	4/4.0 (-1)	3,099 (+7%)	4mo	$500,000	$161	46
7479 Sea Manatee St	0.52mi	4/4.0 (-1)	3,269 (+13%)	1mo	$685,000	$210	42
7433 Sea Manatee St	0.65mi	4/4.0 (-1)	3,278 (+13%)	5mo	$599,990	$183	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-152,993
• Equity at exit: $80,315

10-year hold

• IRR: -56.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.62×
• Total profit: $-244,986
• Equity at exit: $46,573

Cash invested: $150,824 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2194
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,616 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,825
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$673 /mo · $8,080/yr
• Insurance: −$224
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$759
• Net cashflow: $-866

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,712

Max offer price $413,323

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-494	-5% $-680	+0% $-866	+5% $-1,052	+10% $-1,238
Rent	-10% $-1,152	-5% $-1,009	+0% $-866	+5% $-723	+10% $-581
Rate	-1.0pp $-595	-0.5pp $-729	base $-866	+0.5pp $-1,006	+1.0pp $-1,148

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $134,664
• Closing costs: $16,160
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8438 Blue Wave Ln Parrish, FL	6.0	3.0	2580	$2,900	$1.12	25d	1	0.13mi
9276 Bonita Mar Dr Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2466	$4,250	$1.72	25d	1	0.14mi
8541 Bella Mar Trl Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2389	$2,800	$1.17	12d	1	0.16mi
8818 Gulf Shore Ter Parrish, FL	6.0	3.0	3326	$3,250	$0.98	5d	1	0.23mi
9432 Bella Mar Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2045	$2,699	$1.32	18d	1	0.33mi
10225 Daybreak Gln Parrish, FL	4.0	3.0	1978	$2,600	$1.31	5d	1	1.14mi
8326 Abalone Loop Parrish, FL	4.0	3.0	2711	$3,650	$1.35	5d	1	1.31mi
9544 Sandy Bluffs Cir Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2557	$2,950	$1.15	5d	1	1.37mi
8614 Mercator Ct Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2910	$3,300	$1.13	25d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $408,400 Active 613 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $408,400 Active 610 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   price $408,400 Active 609 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $408,150 Active 609 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $408,150 Active 608 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $407,900 Active 607 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $407,900 Active 605 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $407,650 Active 604 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $407,650 Active 602 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $407,650 Active 601 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $407,650 Active 600 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    pricedays on market $407,650 Active 599 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $407,150 Active 595 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $407,150 Active 594 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $422,150 Active 593 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $422,150 Active 592 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $43,388
• − Mortgage interest: −$30,173
• − Property taxes: −$8,080
• − Insurance: −$2,693
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,471
• − Management: −$3,471
• − Depreciation: −$15,670
• Taxable loss: −$20,170
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,841
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,553/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ellenton

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #232
• US rank: #3666

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 33,319
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B