281 Chauncey Walker St Unit 86B · Belchertown, MA 01007

$119,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 780 sqft · Manufactured · 20 Days on market

Built 1973 Fair condition 6,600 sqft lot Est $184k · 35% under $344/mo HOA · 17% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Wonderful 2 bedroom mobile with dinnig area and a 3 season enclosed porch. This mobile has been updated in 2004.......roof new tillt windows, and siding.. Large livingroom open to kitchen and dinning area. Call listing agent for appointment.......Easy to show.........On Lockbox. Owner wants offer.....

Key facts

• Newer furnace
• Updated water pipes
• 6,600 sq ft lot

Tags

• EXTRA LARGE LIVING ROOM
• 3-SEASON ENCLOSED PORCH
• UPDATED WATER PIPES
• NEWER FURNACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size about 0.15 acres; Directions: Use GPS to Pine Valley Plantation to Ave B to lot 86
• Financial info: No additional financial details provided
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with a fee (approximately $344); Senior community; Community has walk/jog trails and bike path

Exterior

• Parking: 2 off-street paved parking spaces; Open parking
• Security: No security features listed
• Utilities: Public sewer; Well water; Electric supply available for electric oven
• Home design: Mobile home; Single-level (entry level not specified)
• Construction: Metal roof; Slab foundation; Built (year per public records)
• Exterior features: Wooded lot; Porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: No bedroom count provided
• Flooring: Vinyl; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Oil heating; Ductless heating; Ductless cooling; Has heating and cooling
• Interior features: Total of 4 rooms; Porch
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Washer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $468 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $118k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.0% vs local median 3.0% in Belchertown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#56 in MA, #2,946 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: cost of living D+, amenities F.
• Belchertown (rural): math 35% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #176 of 302 in MA (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 55 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 349 units permitted in Hampshire County in 2024 (185 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hampshire County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $15k; list at $120k implies a 699% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 23% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,101 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.73% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.74%
• DSCR: 1.74
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $184,080
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
281 Chauncey Walker #185	0.30mi	2/1.0	720 (-8%)	12mo	$170,000	$236	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.32×
• Total profit: $10,636
• Equity at exit: $17,877

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.45×
• Total profit: $48,648
• Equity at exit: $10,367

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 20 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Massachusetts: 20 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Cambridge / Boston historically rent-controlled (preempted 1994 but consideration ongoing); strong tenant protections; court backlogs.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 01007

• Home prices YoY: -28.1%
• Active inventory: 55
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,077 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$150 /mo · $1,798/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$344
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$436
• Net cashflow: $468

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,484

Max offer price $119,900

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $344 · $4,128/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,900 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,900 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,900 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,900 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $119,900 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $119,900 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,900 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,900 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $119,900 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $119,900 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $119,900 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    statusdays on market $119,900 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,900 New 3 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,900 New 2 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    remarks 693-char remark
16. 2026-05-30
    listed $119,900 New 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 23% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,924
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$1,798
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,994
• − Management: −$1,994
• − HOA: −$4,128
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable income: $4,206
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,009
• After-tax cash flow: $4,609/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Fair 40/100 Moderate rehab

This manufactured home requires significant exterior repairs and maintenance, including painting, roof replacement, and siding repair, to improve its condition and value.

Repairs flagged

• Major siding — Significant wear and tear
• Major roof — Aged appearance
• Major exterior paint — Peeling and weathered appearance

Value-add opportunities

• Both painting the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both roof replacement — Critical for structural integrity and value
• Both exterior siding repair — Improves appearance and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
siding · Significant wear and tear	Major	$15,000–50,000
roof · Aged appearance	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior paint · Peeling and weathered appearance	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$45,000–150,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both painting the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both roof replacement — Critical for structural integrity and value ↑
• Both exterior siding repair — Improves appearance and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Belchertown
• NCES district ID: 2502430
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $77,349
• Composite: 38.71/100
• National rank: #4136
• State rank: #176 of 302 in MA

Livability — Belchertown

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #56
• US rank: #2946

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B Cost of living D+ Crime A Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hampshire County · 76,035 people
• City population: 15,419
• Metro: Springfield, MA
• Population (ZIP): 15,419
• Household income: $108,125
• Rent vs Own: 13.1% rent · 86.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 191.0

Population outlook (Hampshire County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 166,577 people
• By 2030: 168,928 · +1.4%
• By 2040: 171,197 · +2.8%
• By 2050: 175,542 · +5.4%
• By 2075: 199,884 · +20.0%
• By 2100: 211,819 · +27.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 14% Romanian 14% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · China, Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hampshire

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+41.9) · D 69.5% · R 27.6% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 45.6pp · 2024: 41.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+41.9 2020: D+46.8 2016: D+39.5 2012: D+43.8 2008: D+45.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.42%
• Current HPI: 274.6244
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Springfield, MA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.28%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	3	$17B
▸Insurance	2	$84B
▸Retail	2	$76B
▸Life Sciences	1	$43B
▸Energy Technology	1	$31B
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$18B

Price history

+499.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $119,900 MLS PIN
• 2013-04-30 Sold (MLS) $15,000 MLS PIN
• 2011-08-01 Listed $19,999 MLS PIN