4435 Castlerock Dr · Birch Bay, WA 98230

$685,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,300 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 69 Days on market

Built 2005 9,148 sqft lot $208/sqft · 7% below area Est $756k · 9% under $105/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.7/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Cash flow +4.0/30.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Spacious 4BD/3BA home in the gated Greens at Loomis Trail offering approx. 3,300 sq ft with soaring ceilings, large windows and a functional layout. Features include a main-level bedroom and bath, generous kitchen with concrete countertops, and extensive built-in wood storage throughout the living areas. Expansive primary suite includes a massive walk-in closet (bonus room size) and attached flex space ideal for office or workout area, plus a spacious bath. Private backyard with patio and no rear neighbors. Home offers solid bones but is ready for cosmetic updates. Sold AS IS, WHERE IS. Seller will make no repairs. Opportunity to add value in a desirable golf course community.

Key facts

• No rear neighbors
• Attached flex space
• 9,148 sq ft lot

Tags

• GATED GREENS AT LOOMIS TRAIL
• MAIN-LEVEL BEDROOM AND BATH
• MASSIVE WALK-IN CLOSET
• ATTACHED FLEX SPACE
• PRIVATE BACKYARD WITH PATIO
• NO REAR NEIGHBORS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $685k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-23k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $348k (49.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $311k (54.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $311k (54.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#406 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A; Watch: cost of living D+, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Blaine School District (town): math 49% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #120 of 291 in WA (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Blaine Elementary School (463 students, 54% FRL); Blaine Middle School (459 students, 54% FRL); Blaine High School (609 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools average 51% FRL vs 33% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 461 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,190 units permitted in Whatcom County in 2024 (327 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $73k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $68k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Whatcom County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$118k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($644k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $311,163 (54.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 55% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.45% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.95%
• DSCR: 0.47
• GRM: 18.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $755,830
• List price: $685,000
• Delta: -9.37%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8641 Ashbury Ct	0.09mi	4/3.0	3,016 (-9%)	11mo	$719,000	$238	73

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.31×
• Total profit: $251,525
• Equity at exit: $617,102

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.36×
• Total profit: $836,675
• Equity at exit: $1,330,804

Cash invested: $191,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98230

• Home prices YoY: 14.0%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 461
• Price-to-rent: 18.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,112 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,592
• Tax from tax record: −$386 /mo · $4,632/yr
• Insurance: −$285
• HOA: −$105
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$653
• Net cashflow: $-1,910

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,530

Max offer price $347,505

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,523	-5% $-1,717	+0% $-1,910	+5% $-2,104	+10% $-2,298
Rent	-10% $-2,156	-5% $-2,033	+0% $-1,910	+5% $-1,788	+10% $-1,665
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,566	-0.5pp $-1,736	base $-1,910	+0.5pp $-2,088	+1.0pp $-2,269

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $171,250
• Closing costs: $20,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $105 · $1,260/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $685,000 Active 69 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $685,000 Active 66 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $685,000 Active 65 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $685,000 Active 64 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $685,000 Active 63 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $685,000 Active 61 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $685,000 Active 60 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $685,000 Active 58 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $685,000 Active 57 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $685,000 Active 56 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $685,000 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $685,000 Active 52 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $685,000 Active 50 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $685,000 Active 49 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $685,000 Active 48 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $685,000 Active 47 DOM
17. 2026-04-13
    listed $685,000 Active
18. 2004-09-29
    historical
19. 2003-08-04
    listed

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,632 · $386/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,713 · $559/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,081/yr (+$173/mo · 44.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥82°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 11 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,340
• − Mortgage interest: −$38,371
• − Property taxes: −$4,632
• − Insurance: −$3,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,987
• − Management: −$2,987
• − HOA: −$1,260
• − Depreciation: −$19,927
• Taxable loss: −$36,250
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$8,700
• After-tax cash flow: $-14,226/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Blaine School District
• NCES district ID: 5300570
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,085
• Composite: 47.05/100
• National rank: #5128
• State rank: #120 of 291 in WA

Livability — Birch Bay

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #406
• US rank: #16180

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime C+ Employment C+ Housing A Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Whatcom County · 209,776 people
• Metro: Bellingham, WA
• Population (ZIP): 18,744
• Household income: $86,623
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 454.0

Population outlook (Whatcom County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 240,408 people
• By 2030: 254,667 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 281,365 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 307,592 · +27.9%
• By 2075: 375,576 · +56.2%
• By 2100: 421,637 · +75.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 3% Pacific Islander 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Iranian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Whatcom

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.9) · D 60.8% · R 35.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 18.0pp · 2024: 24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.9 2020: D+23.9 2016: D+17.7 2012: D+12.1 2008: D+18.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 106.58%
• Current HPI: 868.68
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.10%
• Metro: Bellingham, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Listed $685,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-09-29 Delisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-08-04 Listed — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $4,632 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.