4065 Bermuda Ln · Seguin, TX 78155

$266,650

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,331 sqft · SingleFamily · 138 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition 4,791 sqft lot $114/sqft · 11% below area Est $300k · 11% under $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.5/15.0
• Cash flow +8.6/30.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Available for June 2026! The Monroe's new home design is ideal for homeowner's needing space and storage. Offering roomy entertaining areas downstairs with a second-story loft and private owner's suite.

Key facts

• 4,791 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $267k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-229 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $234k (12.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $211k (21.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $211k (21.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.7% in Seguin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#592 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Navarro ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #166 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Navarro El (math 37% / reading 57%, grade D-, #1,006 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 702 students, 45% FRL); Navarro Int (math 50% / reading 44%, grade D+, #424 of 1,662 statewide, top 27%, 485 students, 40% FRL); Navarro H S (math 47% / reading 57%, grade D+, #447 of 1,632 statewide, top 29%, 648 students, 33% FRL) — zoned schools at 39% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 1603 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 32d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 58% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 138 days — a 12% lower offer ($235k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $210,661 (21.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 138 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.67%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $299,665
• List price: $266,650
• Delta: -11.02%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4064 Bermuda Ln	0.02mi	4/2.5	2,218 (-5%)	3mo	$274,123	$124	86
4150 Bermuda Ln	0.17mi	4/2.5	2,218 (-5%)	3mo	$271,723	$123	80
4069 Bermuda Ln	0.01mi	4/3.0	2,029 (-13%)	2mo	$268,230	$132	76
4129 Bermuda Ln	0.13mi	4/3.0	2,079 (-11%)	1mo	$285,368	$137	75
4057 Bermuda Ln	0.02mi	4/3.0	2,029 (-13%)	4mo	$284,100	$140	74
4060 Paddock Trl	0.20mi	4/2.5	2,520 (+8%)	1mo	$372,230	$148	74
4121 Bermuda Ln	0.11mi	4/3.0	2,601 (+12%)	3mo	$329,877	$127	73
4133 Bermuda Ln	0.14mi	4/3.0	2,601 (+12%)	4mo	$324,702	$125	71
4142 Bermuda Ln	0.15mi	4/3.0	2,029 (-13%)	4mo	$274,390	$135	68
529 Canyon Live Oak	0.66mi	4/3.0	2,573 (+10%)	2mo	$400,000	$155	50
336 Pacific Waters	0.58mi	4/2.5	1,987 (-15%)	1mo	$213,000	$107	46
413 Canyon Live Oak	0.74mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,575 (+10%)	2mo	$475,000	$184	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-59,718
• Equity at exit: $39,758

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.05×
• Total profit: $-78,602
• Equity at exit: $23,055

Cash invested: $74,662 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 57 active · 15 under contract
• Months of supply: 13.2 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $340,696 ($149/sqft)
• Median days on market: 119 d
• This list price: 9% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -13.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78155

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 1603
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,107 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,398
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$333 /mo · $4,000/yr
• Insurance: −$111
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$442
• Net cashflow: $-229

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,396

Max offer price $233,580

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-44	-5% $-136	+0% $-229	+5% $-321	+10% $-413
Rent	-10% $-395	-5% $-312	+0% $-229	+5% $-145	+10% $-62
Rate	-1.0pp $-94	-0.5pp $-161	base $-229	+0.5pp $-298	+1.0pp $-368

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,662
• Closing costs: $8,000
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4153 Bermuda Ln Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1937	$1,995	$1.03	46d	1	0.22mi
4044 Sun Meadow Ln Seguin, TX	4.0	3.0	2601	$2,359	$0.91	93d	1	0.22mi
4134 Wild Bloom Rd Seguin, TX	3.0	2.5	2300	$2,000	$0.87	31d	1	0.27mi
4089 Lily Glade Ln Seguin, TX	4.0	3.0	2218	$1,950	$0.88	9d	1	0.27mi
3873 Far Horizon Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,773	$1.06	20d	1	0.42mi
3812 Far Horizon Seguin, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$1,799	$0.96	9d	1	0.52mi
3812 Far Horizon Seguin, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$1,825	$0.97	60d	1	0.53mi
249 Free Waters Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,695	$1.02	9d	1	0.61mi
2712 La Mundial St Seguin, TX	4.0	3.0	2304	$1,755	$0.76	64d	1	1.19mi
2712 La Mundial St Seguin, TX	4.0	3.0	2304	$1,821	$0.79	60d	1	1.19mi
2704 La Mundial St Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1910	$1,516	$0.79	32d	1	1.21mi
1035 Timber Elm Seguin, TX	4.0	4.0	2650	$4,500	$1.70	52d	1	1.21mi
227 Cordova Xing Seguin, TX	4.0	3.0	2304	$2,200	$0.95	9d	1	1.21mi
2720 Coral Vly Seguin, TX	4.0	3.0	1910	$2,195	$1.15	9d	1	1.22mi
2720 Coral Vly Seguin, TX	4.0	3.0	1910	$2,195	$1.15	37d	1	1.22mi
2700 Coral Vly Seguin, TX	4.0	3.0	2229	$2,200	$0.99	23d	1	1.25mi
2717 San Martin Ln Seguin, TX	4.0	3.0	1910	$2,050	$1.07	93d	1	1.28mi
345 Cordova Xing Seguin, TX	4.0	3.0	2304	$1,945	$0.84	71d	1	1.32mi
2716 Sierra Chicas Ln Seguin, TX	4.0	3.0	1910	$1,900	$0.99	9d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $266,650 Active 138 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $266,650 Active 136 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $266,650 Active 135 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $266,650 Active 134 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $266,650 Active 133 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $266,650 Active 130 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $266,650 Active 129 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $266,650 Active 128 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $266,650 Active 127 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    statusdays on market $266,650 Active 125 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $266,650 Price Change 123 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $266,650 Price Change 122 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $266,650 Price Change 121 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $266,650 Price Change 120 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $266,650 Price Change 119 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $266,650 Price Change 117 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $266,650 Price Change 116 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $266,650 Price Change 115 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    pricestatusdays on market $266,650 Price Change 114 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $271,650 Active 113 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $271,650 Active 112 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $271,650 Active 111 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $271,650 Active 110 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $271,650 Active 109 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $271,650 Active 108 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $271,650 Active 106 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $271,650 Active 105 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    statusdays on market $271,650 Active 104 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $271,650 Price Change 102 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $271,650 Price Change 101 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $271,650 Price Change 100 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $271,650 Price Change 99 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $271,650 Price Change 98 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $271,650 Price Change 97 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $271,650 Price Change 96 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    pricedays on market $271,650 Price Change 95 DOM
37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $276,650 Price Change 93 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $276,650 Price Change 91 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $276,650 Price Change 90 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $276,650 Price Change 87 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    pricestatus $276,650 Price Change 86 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $281,650 Active 86 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $281,650 Active 85 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    statusdays on market $281,650 Active 84 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $281,650 Price Change 82 DOM
46. 2026-06-13
    days on market $281,650 Price Change 81 DOM
47. 2026-06-09
    days on market $281,650 Price Change 78 DOM
48. 2026-06-08
    days on market $281,650 Price Change 77 DOM
49. 2026-06-07
    pricestatusdays on market $281,650 Price Change 76 DOM
50. 2026-06-04
    days on market $281,750 Active 73 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,279
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,937
• − Property taxes: −$4,000
• − Insurance: −$1,333
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,022
• − Management: −$2,022
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$7,757
• Taxable loss: −$7,392
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,774
• After-tax cash flow: $-968/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in good condition with no major repairs needed. It is move-in ready and has potential for value increases through exterior painting and gutter cleaning.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Rental Clean the gutters — Clean gutters improve property maintenance and reduce potential water damage issues. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 49/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Navarro El D- TX #1,006/4,322 Nat'l #14,504/41,679 Middle Navarro Int D+ TX #424/1,662 Nat'l #4,159/14,009 High Navarro H S D+ TX #447/1,632 Nat'l #5,016/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Navarro ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832160
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $66,008
• Composite: 43.49/100
• National rank: #2996
• State rank: #166 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 66/100

Livability — Seguin

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #592
• US rank: #11298

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Seguin, TX
• County: Guadalupe County · 196,854 people
• City population: 55,600
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 55,600
• Household income: $71,039
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 17% of renters

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Population outlook (Guadalupe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 196,854 people
• By 2030: 220,210 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 268,004 · +36.1%
• By 2050: 316,333 · +60.7%
• By 2075: 434,747 · +120.8%
• By 2100: 520,447 · +164.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 43% Two or more races 26% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Guadalupe

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.5pp toward D · 2008: -31.0pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+24.2 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+35.1 2008: R+31.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -147.43%
• Current HPI: 160.5435
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.04%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $281,750 Zillow
• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $282,750 Zillow
• 2026-03-23 Listed $281,750 Zillow
• 2026-03-20 Listed $281,750 LERA