7908 Elowen Grv · Houston, TX 77016

$274,540

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,412 sqft · Land · 11 Days on market

Built 2026 $38/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +9.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.9/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.3/10.0

Listing remarks

BRAND NEW SINGLE STORY HOME WITH OPEN LIVING DESIGN Introducing the Odyssey floorplan, a well designed one story home offering 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and approximately 1,412 square feet of comfortable living space. The open layout connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas, creating an inviting flow for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features granite countertops, a large island, and soft close cabinets and drawers, with stainless steel appliances included for added convenience. A covered patio extends outdoor living space, while the private primary suite includes a walk in closet and an en suite bathroom, and a fully fenced backyard completes this thoughtfully planned d

Key facts

• Covered patio
• Large island
• Soft close cabinets

Tags

• OPEN LIVING DESIGN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• LARGE ISLAND
• SOFT CLOSE CABINETS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• COVERED PATIO

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-532 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $198k (28.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (35.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $178k (35.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Shadydale El (math 11% / reading 20%, grade F, #3,990 of 4,322 statewide, top 93%, 631 students, 95% FRL); Forest Brook Middle (math 12% / reading 14%, grade F, #1,609 of 1,662 statewide, top 97%, 613 students, 98% FRL); North Forest H S (math 13% / reading 18%, grade F, #1,505 of 1,632 statewide, top 92%, 974 students, 97% FRL) — zoned schools average 97% FRL vs 71% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 15% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 376 active listings in the ZIP; 39 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($48k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (8.7% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $177,689 (35.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.30%
• DSCR: 0.63
• GRM: 12.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.65% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.12×
• Total profit: $86,324
• Equity at exit: $220,806

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.49×
• Total profit: $268,315
• Equity at exit: $450,505

Cash invested: $76,871 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77016

• Home prices YoY: 2.8%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 376
• Price-to-rent: 12.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,777 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,440
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$343 /mo · $4,118/yr
• Insurance: −$114
• HOA: −$38
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$373
• Net cashflow: $-532

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,450

Max offer price $197,625

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-342	-5% $-437	+0% $-532	+5% $-626	+10% $-721
Rent	-10% $-672	-5% $-602	+0% $-532	+5% $-461	+10% $-391
Rate	-1.0pp $-393	-0.5pp $-462	base $-532	+0.5pp $-603	+1.0pp $-675

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,635
• Closing costs: $8,236
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 39 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10474 Red Orchid Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1553	$1,875	$1.21	26d	1	0.12mi
10314 Woodwick St Unit 1283919P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1496	$3,865	$2.58	0d	1	0.27mi
10708 Lavender Cotton Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1406	$2,150	$1.53	45d	1	0.31mi
7726 Spinet St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1456	$2,375	$1.63	9d	1	0.36mi
8003 Alpine Bearberry Dr Houston, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1696	$2,000	$1.18	9d	1	0.38mi
8102 Rhobell St Unit A Houston, TX	4.0	3.5	1567	$1,750	$1.12	45d	1	0.47mi
8214 Parker Rd Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1608	$1,560	$0.97	9d	1	0.49mi
8213 Bigwood St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1150	$1,595	$1.39	45d	1	0.63mi
8122 Sterlingshire St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1160	$1,525	$1.31	17d	1	0.66mi
8122 Sterlingshire St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1160	$1,450	$1.25	17d	1	0.66mi
8126 Sterlingshire St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,350	$1.17	26d	1	0.66mi
8302 Caddo Rd Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	896	$1,450	$1.62	45d	1	0.68mi
8314 Madera Rd Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1608	$1,495	$0.93	26d	1	0.69mi
10750 Nyla Spring St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,975	$1.32	20d	1	0.72mi
7325 Boggess Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,850	$1.18	45d	1	0.75mi
7325 Boggess Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,850	$1.18	19d	1	0.75mi
8235 Locksley Rd Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1608	$1,525	$0.95	9d	1	0.86mi
7314 Saunders Rd Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1339	$1,723	$1.29	16d	1	0.87mi
9550 N Wayside Dr Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	896	$1,399	$1.56	3d	5	0.88mi
7252 Parker Rd Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	916	$1,650	$1.80	45d	1	0.89mi
6822 Leedale St Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	978	$1,500	$1.53	45d	1	0.90mi
6823 Hanley Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1303	$1,610	$1.24	7d	1	1.00mi
7176 Parker Rd Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1152	$1,200	$1.04	45d	1	1.05mi
7223 Valmont Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1546	$1,595	$1.03	45d	1	1.07mi
8346 Tidwell Rd Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	980	$1,000	$1.02	45d	1	1.13mi
9702 Hillis St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1612	$1,550	$0.96	45d	1	1.13mi
8350 Tidwell Rd Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	980	$975	$0.99	45d	1	1.13mi
7201 Hallshire Dr Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	985	$740	$0.75	45d	1	1.25mi
7201 Hallshire Dr Unit 235 Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1100	$850	$0.77	45d	1	1.25mi
7201 Hallshire Dr Unit 222 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	985	$700	$0.71	45d	1	1.25mi
8006 Lynette St Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1400	$1,475	$1.05	26d	1	1.26mi
10221 Bretton Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1350	$1,700	$1.26	26d	1	1.29mi
10221 Bretton Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1650	$1,650	$1.00	0d	1	1.29mi
9410 Firnat St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	1d	1	1.36mi
9410 Firnat St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	45d	1	1.36mi
9324 Firnat St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,900	$1.19	24d	1	1.40mi
9700 Mesa Dr Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	784	$989	$1.26	1d	9	1.41mi
9222 Hillis St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1498	$1,850	$1.23	45d	1	1.43mi
11235 Lemond Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1368	$1,450	$1.06	24d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $38 · $456/yr

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-13
   pricestatusdays on market $274,540 Pending 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   pricedays on market $249,990 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $229,990 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   pricestatusdays on market $229,990 Active 8 DOM
5. 2026-03-09
   status Pending
6. 2026-03-05
   price $274,540
7. 2026-03-04
   price $259,540
8. 2026-03-03
   listed $274,540 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,323
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,379
• − Property taxes: −$4,118
• − Insurance: −$1,373
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,706
• − Management: −$1,706
• − HOA: −$456
• − Depreciation: −$7,987
• Taxable loss: −$11,401
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,736
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,642/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,841
• Household income: $47,677
• Rent vs Own: 38.8% rent · 61.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1297.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (56%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 56% Hispanic / Latino 42% Two or more races 28%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 37%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.65%
• Current HPI: 315.6765
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-09 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $274,540 HARMLS
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $259,540 HARMLS
• 2026-03-03 Listed $274,540 HARMLS