559 W Heronsbill Ln · Citrus Springs, FL 34434

$284,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,799 sqft · Land · 48 Days on market

Built 2026 0.35 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Oversized lot! Brand-new, move-in ready home in growing Dunnellon—ideal for buyers seeking modern homes near Rainbow River and outdoor recreation. This never-lived-in 4-bedroom, 2-bath residence features a bright, open-concept layout with seamless flow and sliding glass doors leading to the outdoor area, perfect for indoor-outdoor living. The kitchen comes fully equipped with appliances, wood cabinetry, and ample counter space for everyday comfort or entertaining. Set on a spacious 0.35-acre lot, offering plenty of room to create your dream backyard. Includes a 2-car garage and generous yard space. Conveniently located approx. 3.5 mi to Rainbow Springs State Park, 2.0 mi to Publix Super Market, 1.8 mi to Walgreens Pharmacy, and near schools, dining, and medical services. Located in a high-growth area—don’t miss this opportunity.

Key facts

• Sliding glass doors
• Outdoor area
• Oversized lot

Tags

• OVERSIZED LOT
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• SLIDING GLASS DOORS
• OUTDOOR AREA
• KITCHEN FULLY EQUIPPED
• WOOD CABINETRY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Home warranty included
• HOA & community: No association; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; 2-car garage with garage door opener; Attached garage
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; BB/HS internet available; Cable available; Electricity available
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; New construction; Faces west; Residential property
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built by LAKESHORE
• Exterior features: Front porch; Patio; Exterior lighting; Sidewalk; Sliding doors; Oversized lot; Paved and asphalt surfaces

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen/family room combo; Living room/dining room combo; Open floorplan; Solid wood cabinets; Stone counters; Thermostat; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-373 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $231k (19.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $202k (29.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $202k (29.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#521 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Citrus (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #44 of 73 in FL (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Central Ridge Elementary School (math 41% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,383 of 2,144 statewide, top 65%, 723 students, 64% FRL); Citrus Springs Middle School (math 55% / reading 54%, grade B-, #183 of 571 statewide, top 34%, 821 students, 59% FRL); Lecanto High School (math 46% / reading 53%, grade D, #179 of 667 statewide, top 29%, 1,630 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools at 56% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 1247 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,443 units permitted in Citrus County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Citrus County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $49k; list at $285k implies a 481% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $201,980 (29.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.61%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-69,907
• Equity at exit: $42,480

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.15×
• Total profit: $-91,360
• Equity at exit: $24,633

Cash invested: $79,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34434

• Home prices YoY: -2.9%
• Active inventory: 1247
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,020 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,494
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$356 /mo · $4,274/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$424
• Net cashflow: $-373

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,492

Max offer price $230,892

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-176	-5% $-275	+0% $-373	+5% $-472	+10% $-570
Rent	-10% $-533	-5% $-453	+0% $-373	+5% $-293	+10% $-214
Rate	-1.0pp $-230	-0.5pp $-301	base $-373	+0.5pp $-447	+1.0pp $-522

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,225
• Closing costs: $8,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
788 W Glenhaven Dr Citrus Springs, FL	4.0	2.0	1621	$1,800	$1.11	23d	1	0.27mi
669 W Homeway Loop Citrus Springs, FL	4.0	2.0	1580	$1,895	$1.20	23d	1	0.80mi
1301 N Galgano St Dunnellon, FL	4.0	3.0	2381	$2,800	$1.18	23d	1	0.96mi
7708 N Paris Dr Dunnellon, FL	3.0	2.0	1415	$1,800	$1.27	23d	1	1.13mi
6251 W Whispering Dr Citrus Springs, FL	4.0	2.0	1617	$1,815	$1.12	23d	1	1.17mi
7908 N Galena Ave Citrus Springs, FL	4.0	2.5	1551	$1,850	$1.19	23d	1	1.18mi
8180 N Wakefield Dr Dunnellon, FL	3.0	2.0	1502	$1,695	$1.13	23d	1	1.19mi
8190 N Wakefield Dr Dunnellon, FL	4.0	2.0	1772	$1,750	$0.99	23d	1	1.19mi
1482 W Manchester Dr Dunnellon, FL	3.0	2.0	1540	$1,695	$1.10	23d	1	1.22mi
8030 N Galena Ave Citrus Springs, FL	4.0	2.0	1833	$2,150	$1.17	23d	1	1.26mi
8398 N Jay Dr Dunnellon, FL	3.0	2.0	1541	$1,700	$1.10	23d	1	1.39mi
696 W Hallam Dr Citrus Springs, FL	4.0	2.0	1797	$1,900	$1.06	23d	1	1.40mi
8450 N Travis Dr Citrus Springs, FL	4.0	2.0	1787	$1,900	$1.06	23d	1	1.44mi
7175 N Varsity Ave Citrus Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1428	$1,795	$1.26	23d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-20
   status Pending 858-char remark

   Show marketing remark (858 chars)

   Oversized lot! Brand-new, move-in ready home in growing Dunnellon—ideal for buyers seeking modern homes near Rainbow River and outdoor recreation. This never-lived-in 4-bedroom, 2-bath residence features a bright, open-concept layout with seamless flow and sliding glass doors leading to the outdoor area, perfect for indoor-outdoor living. The kitchen comes fully equipped with appliances, wood cabinetry, and ample counter space for everyday comfort or entertaining. Set on a spacious 0.35-acre lot, offering plenty of room to create your dream backyard. Includes a 2-car garage and generous yard space. Conveniently located approx. 3.5 mi to Rainbow Springs State Park, 2.0 mi to Publix Super Market, 1.8 mi to Walgreens Pharmacy, and near schools, dining, and medical services. Located in a high-growth area—don’t miss this opportunity.

2. 2026-05-20
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (858 chars)

   Oversized lot! Brand-new, move-in ready home in growing Dunnellon—ideal for buyers seeking modern homes near Rainbow River and outdoor recreation. This never-lived-in 4-bedroom, 2-bath residence features a bright, open-concept layout with seamless flow and sliding glass doors leading to the outdoor area, perfect for indoor-outdoor living. The kitchen comes fully equipped with appliances, wood cabinetry, and ample counter space for everyday comfort or entertaining. Set on a spacious 0.35-acre lot, offering plenty of room to create your dream backyard. Includes a 2-car garage and generous yard space. Conveniently located approx. 3.5 mi to Rainbow Springs State Park, 2.0 mi to Publix Super Market, 1.8 mi to Walgreens Pharmacy, and near schools, dining, and medical services. Located in a high-growth area—don’t miss this opportunity.

3. 2026-05-07
   price $284,900 858-char remark

   Show marketing remark (858 chars)

   Oversized lot! Brand-new, move-in ready home in growing Dunnellon—ideal for buyers seeking modern homes near Rainbow River and outdoor recreation. This never-lived-in 4-bedroom, 2-bath residence features a bright, open-concept layout with seamless flow and sliding glass doors leading to the outdoor area, perfect for indoor-outdoor living. The kitchen comes fully equipped with appliances, wood cabinetry, and ample counter space for everyday comfort or entertaining. Set on a spacious 0.35-acre lot, offering plenty of room to create your dream backyard. Includes a 2-car garage and generous yard space. Conveniently located approx. 3.5 mi to Rainbow Springs State Park, 2.0 mi to Publix Super Market, 1.8 mi to Walgreens Pharmacy, and near schools, dining, and medical services. Located in a high-growth area—don’t miss this opportunity.

4. 2026-05-06
   price $284,900
5. 2026-04-02
   listed $289,900 Active
6. 2026-03-31
   listed $289,900 Active 858-char remark

   Show marketing remark (858 chars)

   Oversized lot! Brand-new, move-in ready home in growing Dunnellon—ideal for buyers seeking modern homes near Rainbow River and outdoor recreation. This never-lived-in 4-bedroom, 2-bath residence features a bright, open-concept layout with seamless flow and sliding glass doors leading to the outdoor area, perfect for indoor-outdoor living. The kitchen comes fully equipped with appliances, wood cabinetry, and ample counter space for everyday comfort or entertaining. Set on a spacious 0.35-acre lot, offering plenty of room to create your dream backyard. Includes a 2-car garage and generous yard space. Conveniently located approx. 3.5 mi to Rainbow Springs State Park, 2.0 mi to Publix Super Market, 1.8 mi to Walgreens Pharmacy, and near schools, dining, and medical services. Located in a high-growth area—don’t miss this opportunity.

7. 2025-04-11
   soldstatus $49,000
8. 2025-02-04
   soldstatus $18,000
9. 1999-03-01
   soldstatus $101,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,238
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,959
• − Property taxes: −$4,274
• − Insurance: −$1,424
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,939
• − Management: −$1,939
• − Depreciation: −$8,288
• Taxable loss: −$9,585
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,300
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,178/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Citrus
• NCES district ID: 1200270
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,618
• Composite: 41.28/100
• National rank: #3519
• State rank: #44 of 73 in FL

Livability — Citrus Springs

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #521
• US rank: #9598

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Citrus Springs, FL
• County: Citrus County · 111,314 people
• City population: 10,730
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• Population (ZIP): 11,074
• Household income: $68,939
• Rent vs Own: 12.4% rent · 87.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 171.0

Population outlook (Citrus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,622 people
• By 2030: 136,886 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 132,009 · -4.8%
• By 2050: 125,196 · -9.7%
• By 2075: 108,570 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 84,454 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 3% Romanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Citrus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.9) · D 26.8% · R 72.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.1pp · 2024: -45.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.9 2020: R+41.0 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+21.9 2008: R+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -9.70%
• Current HPI: 328.2164
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+182.1% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Pending — RACC
• 2026-05-20 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $284,900 RACC
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $284,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-02 Listed $289,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-31 Listed $289,900 RACC
• 2025-04-11 Sold (Public Records) $49,000 Public Records
• 2025-02-04 Sold (Public Records) $18,000 Public Records
• 1999-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $101,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+12.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $217 · +39.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.