Misty III Plan ON YOUR LOT Plan · Palm Coast, FL 32164

$246,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,674 sqft · SingleFamily · 780 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Large bedrooms
• Impressive kitchen
• Huge walk-in-closet

Tags

• IMPRESSIVE KITCHEN
• LARGE BEDROOMS
• HUGE WALK-IN-CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area approximately 1,674; Virtual tour available
• Financial info: List price $246,900

Exterior

• Utilities: Electric service; Central HVAC with heat pump
• Home design: Single-family plan (Misty III); Located in Palm Coast, FL
• Exterior features: Seagate Homes Model location in Palm Coast

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating with heat pump; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Model home plan available (Misty III Plan on your lot); Active new construction plan

🏗️ New construction. The $246,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $344,844.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $247k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-465 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $243k (1.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $217k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.8% in Palm Coast — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#478 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Flagler (rural): math 53% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #20 of 73 in FL (top 27%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 1367 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,588 units permitted in Flagler County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Flagler County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 780 days — a 12% lower offer ($217k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $217,272 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 780 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.77%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $344,844
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4 Eastmoor Ln	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,785 (+7%)	2mo	$368,000	$206	73
8 Emerald Ln	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,707 (+2%)	6mo	$290,000	$170	71
24 Egan Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,741 (+4%)	0mo	$408,000	$234	62
18 E Diamond Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,894 (+13%)	6mo	$363,600	$192	60
11 Eric Dr	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,721 (+3%)	6mo	$339,000	$197	56
4 Essington Ln	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,749 (+4%)	8mo	$419,000	$240	56
21 Egret Trl	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,587 (-5%)	8mo	$432,000	$272	55
30 Emerson Dr	0.59mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,728 (+3%)	9mo	$299,000	$173	54
81 Egret Trl	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,540 (-8%)	6mo	$400,000	$260	51
10 Eastwood Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,427 (-15%)	8mo	$270,000	$189	50
25 Egret Trl	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,832 (+9%)	7mo	$450,000	$246	50
35 Esperanto Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,878 (+12%)	8mo	$321,000	$171	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.18% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-89,804
• Equity at exit: $51,417

10-year hold

• IRR: -35.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.38×
• Total profit: $-133,436
• Equity at exit: $29,816

Cash invested: $96,556 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32164

• Home prices YoY: -6.3%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 1367
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,428 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,808
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$431 /mo · $5,173/yr
• Insurance: −$144
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$510
• Net cashflow: $-465

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,017

Max offer price $277,611

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $86,211
• Closing costs: $10,345
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
38 E Diamond Dr Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1551	$2,800	$1.81	23d	1	0.15mi
29 E Diamond Dr Palm Coast, FL	4.0	2.0	2217	$2,500	$1.13	23d	1	0.20mi
1 U.S. Route 1 Palm Coast, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1047	$2,320	$2.22	2d	21	0.30mi
17 Eastgate Ln Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1757	$1,800	$1.02	2d	1	0.30mi
101 Haven Blvd Palm Coast, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1115	$2,069	$1.86	2d	22	0.42mi
14 Empire Ln Unit B Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1230	$1,800	$1.46	23d	1	0.51mi
10 Eastern Pl Unit B Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1278	$1,600	$1.25	23d	1	0.51mi
10 Easterly Pl Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	2067	$2,050	$0.99	23d	1	0.53mi
13 Elder Dr Palm Coast, FL	3.0	3.0	2012	$5,500	$2.73	23d	1	0.57mi
13 Elder Dr Unit 1261619P Palm Coast, FL	3.0	3.0	1991	$5,699	$2.86	11d	1	0.57mi
32 Emerson Dr Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1510	$2,150	$1.42	2d	1	0.59mi
4600 E Moody Blvd Bunnell, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	916	$1,600	$1.75	23d	5	0.66mi
4600 E Moody Blvd Bunnell, FL	2.0	2.0	1001	$1,475	$1.47	14d	4	0.66mi
4600 E Moody Blvd Bunnell, FL	2.0	2.0	1051	$1,525	$1.45	23d	1	0.66mi
31 Ebb Tide Dr Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1768	$2,000	$1.13	23d	1	1.05mi
72 Zephyr Lily Trl Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1235	$1,400	$1.13	2d	1	1.10mi
15 Zephyr Lily Pl Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1796	$2,150	$1.20	23d	1	1.21mi
21 Spring St Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	2122	$2,690	$1.27	23d	1	1.24mi
35 Edge Ln Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1501	$2,395	$1.60	2d	1	1.26mi
101 Brookhaven Ct N Palm Coast, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1178	$1,832	$1.55	2d	10	1.29mi
11 Postman Ln Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1215	$1,873	$1.54	23d	1	1.38mi
15 Postman Ln Palm Coast, FL	4.0	2.0	1728	$1,975	$1.14	2d	1	1.42mi
402 Tuscan Reserve Dr Palm Coast, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	997	$2,076	$2.08	2d	10	1.43mi
41 Raemoor Dr Palm Coast, FL	4.0	3.0	1836	$1,995	$1.09	2d	1	1.43mi
33 Rybark Ln Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1980	$1,850	$0.93	23d	1	1.48mi
100 Wilton Cir Palm Coast, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1017	$2,430	$2.39	2d	24	1.48mi
15 Raeland Ln Palm Coast, FL	4.0	2.0	1891	$799	$0.42	23d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $246,900 Active 780 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $246,900 Active 779 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $246,900 Active 778 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $246,900 Active 777 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $246,900 Active 775 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $246,900 Active 774 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $246,900 Active 772 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $246,900 Active 771 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $246,900 Active 770 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $246,900 Active 769 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $246,900 Active 765 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $246,900 Active 764 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $246,900 Active 763 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $246,900 Active 762 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,142
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,317
• − Property taxes: −$5,173
• − Insurance: −$1,724
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,331
• − Management: −$2,331
• − Depreciation: −$10,032
• Taxable loss: −$11,766
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,824
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,752/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Flagler
• NCES district ID: 1200540
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,354
• Composite: 46.35/100
• National rank: #2464
• State rank: #20 of 73 in FL

Livability — Palm Coast

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #478
• US rank: #8721

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Palm Coast, FL
• County: Flagler County · 113,412 people
• City population: 105,049
• Metro: Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 56,658
• Household income: $76,399
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1291.0

Population outlook (Flagler County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,474 people
• By 2030: 131,864 · +6.8%
• By 2040: 146,176 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 157,398 · +27.5%
• By 2075: 177,990 · +44.2%
• By 2100: 183,381 · +48.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 14% Black 13% Two or more races 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Russian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 9% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Flagler

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.2) · D 35.6% · R 63.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: -28.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.2 2020: R+20.8 2016: R+20.6 2012: R+7.4 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -19.89%
• Current HPI: 297.4942
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.18%
• Metro: Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B