415 Hogart St · Franklin, VA 23851

$144,990

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 952 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1968 Est $190k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Home has lots of potential. The roof was put on within the last 2-3 years. Pre-approved buyer showings only.

Key facts

• Roof was put on
• Built 1968
• Listed 19 days

Tags

• ROOF WAS PUT ON

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No HOA fees indicated

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking; Driveway space; Street parking
• Utilities: City/County water; City/County sewer; Electric water heater
• Home design: Detached property; Ranch style; Single-story
• Construction: Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Corner lot; Asphalt shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Range
• Bedrooms: Bedroom with full bathroom located on the first floor
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Window/wall cooling
• Interior features: Vinyl flooring; Bedroom and full bathroom on the first floor; 5 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $542 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Recommended offer: $143k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.8% vs local median 3.8% in Franklin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#461 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Franklin City Public School District (town): math 23% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #127 of 131 in VA (top 97%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: S.P. Morton Elementary (math 16% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,108 statewide, top 94%, 481 students, 101% FRL); Joseph P. King Jr. Middle (math 23% / reading 53%, grade F, #313 of 342 statewide, top 92%, 164 students, 99% FRL); Franklin High (math 37% / reading 82%, grade C+, #247 of 319 statewide, top 80%, 378 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 75% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 137 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Franklin County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($143k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $100k; 45% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 75% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $142,815 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.03%
• DSCR: 1.71
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $190,400
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
412 Bracey St	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,030 (+8%)	4mo	$225,900	$219	74
207 S College Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,000 (+5%)	12mo	$192,900	$193	69
419 Bruce St	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,000 (+5%)	11mo	$152,000	$152	51
313 Delk St	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,075 (+13%)	10mo	$214,900	$200	45
729 Oak St	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,049 (+10%)	10mo	$215,000	$205	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.27×
• Total profit: $10,990
• Equity at exit: $21,618

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.33×
• Total profit: $53,841
• Equity at exit: $12,536

Cash invested: $40,597 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23851

• Home prices YoY: -10.2%
• Active inventory: 137
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,800 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$59 /mo · $709/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $542

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,114

Max offer price $144,990

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $624	-5% $583	+0% $542	+5% $501	+10% $460
Rent	-10% $400	-5% $471	+0% $542	+5% $613	+10% $684
Rate	-1.0pp $615	-0.5pp $579	base $542	+0.5pp $505	+1.0pp $466

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,248
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
116 Holland Cir Franklin, VA	3.0	1.0	1056	$1,800	$1.70	45d	1	0.35mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $144,990 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $144,990 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $144,990 Active 17 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $144,990 Active 16 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $144,990 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $144,990 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $144,990 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $144,990 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   pricedays on market $144,990 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $149,990 Active 8 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $149,990 Active 7 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $149,990 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $149,990 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,990 Active 2 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    remarks 108-char remark
16. 2026-06-02
    listed $149,990 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $709 · $59/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,189 · $99/mo
• Expected delta: +$480/yr (+$40/mo · 67.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 75% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$709
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,728
• − Management: −$1,728
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable income: $4,371
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,049
• After-tax cash flow: $5,457/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Franklin City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101410
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -48.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $35,138
• Composite: 30.47/100
• National rank: #6227
• State rank: #127 of 131 in VA

Livability — Franklin

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #461
• US rank: #19645

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Franklin, VA
• Population (ZIP): 13,481

Population outlook (Franklin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 7,817 people
• By 2030: 7,480 · -4.3%
• By 2040: 6,803 · -13.0%
• By 2050: 6,124 · -21.7%
• By 2075: 4,484 · -42.6%
• By 2100: 2,967 · -62.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 45% White 44% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Franklin

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+22.8) · D 60.9% · R 38.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.3pp toward R · 2008: 28.1pp · 2024: 22.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+22.8 2020: D+25.6 2016: D+27.1 2012: D+30.7 2008: D+28.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -33.51%
• Current HPI: 293.564
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+653.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $149,990 REINMLS
• 2025-02-02 Listing Removed — REINMLS
• 2025-01-17 Price Changed $114,999 REINMLS
• 2025-01-13 Listed $118,000 REINMLS
• 2021-09-23 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records
• 2016-02-04 Sold (Public Records) $16,600 Public Records
• 2015-11-13 Listed $19,900 WMLS

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $709 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.