12580 Star Branch Rd · Coeburn, VA 24230

$185,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,620 sqft · Manufactured public records · 30 Days on market

Built 2019 1.36 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home that looks and feels practically brand new! Nestled in a peaceful, secluded setting with only one visible neighbor, this property offers the perfect blend of privacy and comfort. Enjoy your morning coffee on the charming covered front porch, let the kids or small pets play safely in the fully fenced backyard, and appreciate the spacious large front yard that adds to the home's curb appeal. Located in a desirable, quiet area, this home is ideal for anyone looking for move-in-ready living with a little extra peace and privacy. Subject to E & O. Buyers and buyer's agent to verify all information in this listing.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Large front yard
• 1.36 acre lot

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• LARGE FRONT YARD
• PEACEFUL SECLUDED SETTING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Private sewer
• Home design: Manufactured house (single family residence); Double wide
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Built as manufactured construction
• Exterior features: Cleared lot

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Heat pump; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: 7 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $25 ($303/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $142k (23.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $142k (23.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 5.4% in Coeburn — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#383 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime B+, housing B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Wise County Public School District (town): math 74% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #11 of 131 in VA (top 8%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Coeburn Primary (math 82% / reading 82%, grade A+, #106 of 1,108 statewide, top 11%, 466 students, 80% FRL); Coeburn Middle (math 76% / reading 80%, grade A+, #34 of 342 statewide, top 10%, 307 students, 89% FRL); Eastside High (math 82% / reading 72%, grade A-, #90 of 319 statewide, top 30%, 390 students, 83% FRL) — zoned schools average 84% FRL vs 55% district-wide (29 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 46 active listings in the ZIP; 17 units permitted in Wise County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $126 appreciation (0.1% local appreciation)).
• Wise County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $142,105 (23.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.58%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.07% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-3,301
• Equity at exit: $54,349

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.46×
• Total profit: $23,773
• Equity at exit: $65,836

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24230

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 46
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,421 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$50 /mo · $602/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$298
• Net cashflow: $25

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,389

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $130	-5% $78	+0% $25	+5% $-27	+10% $-79
Rent	-10% $-87	-5% $-31	+0% $25	+5% $81	+10% $138
Rate	-1.0pp $118	-0.5pp $72	base $25	+0.5pp $-23	+1.0pp $-71

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $185,000 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $185,000 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $185,000 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $185,000 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $185,000 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $185,000 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   pricedays on market $185,000 Active 24 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,900 Active 21 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,900 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $189,900 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $189,900 Active 18 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,900 Active 15 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,900 Active 14 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,900 Active 13 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,900 Active 12 DOM
16. 2026-05-19
    listed $189,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $602 · $50/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,517 · $126/mo
• Expected delta: +$915/yr (+$76/mo · 152.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 4 d/yr ≥96°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,053
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$602
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,364
• − Management: −$1,364
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$2,947
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$707
• After-tax cash flow: $1,010/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wise County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5104080
• Math proficiency: 74% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 79% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $35,624
• Composite: 63.37/100
• National rank: #625
• State rank: #11 of 131 in VA

Livability — Coeburn

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #383
• US rank: #15422

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing B Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,057

Population outlook (Wise County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 35,714 people
• By 2030: 33,742 · -5.5%
• By 2040: 29,870 · -16.4%
• By 2050: 26,233 · -26.5%
• By 2075: 18,296 · -48.8%
• By 2100: 12,147 · -66.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wise

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.3) · D 18.1% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -35.6pp toward R · 2008: -27.7pp · 2024: -63.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.3 2020: R+61.7 2016: R+62.0 2012: R+48.8 2008: R+27.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.07%
• Current HPI: 135.5947
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $189,900 TVRMLS

Property tax history

+39.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $602 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.