10020 Baylor Ave · Flagler Estates, FL 32145

$284,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,100 sqft · SingleFamily · 58 Days on market

Built 2022 1.14 ac lot $259/sqft · at area comps Est $278k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +6.4/15.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• Cash flow +6.0/30.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Built in 2022, this pristine 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 1,100 sq. ft. of modern comfort on a spacious 1.14-acre lot. Enjoy low-maintenance LVP flooring throughout, stainless steel appliances, and an open floor plan ideal for everyday living and entertaining. Energy-efficient solar panels help keep utility costs low, while the peaceful backyard—backing up to wooded privacy—provides the perfect space to relax or host gatherings. With no HOA and plenty of room for your toys, garden, or future additions, this home is move-in ready and waiting for its next owner. Note: This is a short sale and will be subject to lender approval. Please allow extra time for the approval process. Electricity is not currently connected—daytime showings are encouraged.

Key facts

• 1.14 acres
• 1.14 acre lot
• Garage

Tags

• 1.14 ACRES
• ENERGY-EFFICIENT SOLAR PANELS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 1-car garage
• Utilities: Septic tank; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; Single-story
• Construction: Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Rear porch; Asphalt road access; Approximately 1.14-acre lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast bar
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-546 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $188k (33.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $172k (39.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $172k (39.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#763 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• St. Johns (rural): math 75% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #2 of 73 in FL (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: South Woods Elementary School (math 51% / reading 46%, grade D, #1,152 of 2,144 statewide, top 55%, 689 students, 66% FRL); Gamble Rogers Middle School (math 61% / reading 55%, grade B, #151 of 571 statewide, top 27%, 925 students, 47% FRL); Pedro Menendez High School (math 31% / reading 54%, grade F, #264 of 667 statewide, top 41%, 1,519 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools average 51% FRL vs 20% district-wide (31 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 50% at this address vs 74% district-wide (-24 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the St. Johns average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 235 active listings in the ZIP; 5,575 units permitted in St. Johns County in 2024 (584 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $30k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• St. Johns County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$49k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $171,989 (39.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.60% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.22%
• DSCR: 0.63
• GRM: 13.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $277,880
• List price: $284,900
• Delta: 2.53%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10230 Crotty Ave	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,100 (0%)	9mo	$260,000	$236	69
10145 Crotty Ave	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,241 (+13%)	4mo	$340,000	$274	60
4240 Nancy St	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,100 (0%)	21mo	$318,900	$290	57
4160 Melanie St	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,241 (+13%)	6mo	$331,800	$267	56
4050 Melanie St	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,243 (+13%)	22mo	$276,990	$223	52
4240 Regina St	0.59mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,239 (+13%)	18mo	$267,990	$216	32
10170 Ebert Ave	0.52mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,239 (+13%)	22mo	$265,990	$215	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.51×
• Total profit: $120,350
• Equity at exit: $256,660

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.79×
• Total profit: $381,751
• Equity at exit: $553,498

Cash invested: $79,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32145

• Home prices YoY: 19.1%
• Active inventory: 235
• Price-to-rent: 13.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,720 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,494
• Tax from tax record: −$292 /mo · $3,508/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$361
• Net cashflow: $-546

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,412

Max offer price $188,374

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-385	-5% $-466	+0% $-546	+5% $-627	+10% $-708
Rent	-10% $-682	-5% $-614	+0% $-546	+5% $-478	+10% $-411
Rate	-1.0pp $-403	-0.5pp $-474	base $-546	+0.5pp $-620	+1.0pp $-695

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,225
• Closing costs: $8,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $284,900 Active 58 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   price $284,900 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $287,000 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $287,000 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $287,000 Active 53 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $287,000 Active 52 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $287,000 Active 50 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $287,000 Active 49 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $287,000 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $287,000 Active 45 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $287,000 Active 44 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $287,000 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $287,000 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $287,000 Active 38 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $287,000 Active 37 DOM
16. 2026-05-14
    price $288,500 340-char remark
17. 2026-04-24
    listed $289,900 Active 340-char remark
18. 2025-11-10
    historical 775-char remark

    Show marketing remark (775 chars)

    Built in 2022, this pristine 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 1,100 sq. ft. of modern comfort on a spacious 1.14-acre lot. Enjoy low-maintenance LVP flooring throughout, stainless steel appliances, and an open floor plan ideal for everyday living and entertaining. Energy-efficient solar panels help keep utility costs low, while the peaceful backyard—backing up to wooded privacy—provides the perfect space to relax or host gatherings. With no HOA and plenty of room for your toys, garden, or future additions, this home is move-in ready and waiting for its next owner. Note: This is a short sale and will be subject to lender approval. Please allow extra time for the approval process. Electricity is not currently connected—daytime showings are encouraged.

19. 2025-09-09
    price $250,000 775-char remark

    Show marketing remark (775 chars)

    Built in 2022, this pristine 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 1,100 sq. ft. of modern comfort on a spacious 1.14-acre lot. Enjoy low-maintenance LVP flooring throughout, stainless steel appliances, and an open floor plan ideal for everyday living and entertaining. Energy-efficient solar panels help keep utility costs low, while the peaceful backyard—backing up to wooded privacy—provides the perfect space to relax or host gatherings. With no HOA and plenty of room for your toys, garden, or future additions, this home is move-in ready and waiting for its next owner. Note: This is a short sale and will be subject to lender approval. Please allow extra time for the approval process. Electricity is not currently connected—daytime showings are encouraged.

20. 2025-08-23
    listed $275,000 Active 775-char remark

    Show marketing remark (775 chars)

    Built in 2022, this pristine 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 1,100 sq. ft. of modern comfort on a spacious 1.14-acre lot. Enjoy low-maintenance LVP flooring throughout, stainless steel appliances, and an open floor plan ideal for everyday living and entertaining. Energy-efficient solar panels help keep utility costs low, while the peaceful backyard—backing up to wooded privacy—provides the perfect space to relax or host gatherings. With no HOA and plenty of room for your toys, garden, or future additions, this home is move-in ready and waiting for its next owner. Note: This is a short sale and will be subject to lender approval. Please allow extra time for the approval process. Electricity is not currently connected—daytime showings are encouraged.

21. 2022-08-02
    soldstatus $285,500 Closed

    Show marketing remark (452 chars)

    New Home in Fast Growing Area in St Johns County. Enjoy this 3 bedroom, 2 bath home with a one car garage and all on over an acre of beautiful land in Southern part of St Johns County. This home boasts open floor plan with 9 ft ceilings, wood self-closing cabinets, granite tops in bathrooms and kitchen, stainless appliances, and back patio. No HOA , no rules will allow you to have a future large shed for your RV or car work shop many possibilities.

22. 2022-06-19
    historical Contingent- Accepting Backups

    Show marketing remark (452 chars)

    New Home in Fast Growing Area in St Johns County. Enjoy this 3 bedroom, 2 bath home with a one car garage and all on over an acre of beautiful land in Southern part of St Johns County. This home boasts open floor plan with 9 ft ceilings, wood self-closing cabinets, granite tops in bathrooms and kitchen, stainless appliances, and back patio. No HOA , no rules will allow you to have a future large shed for your RV or car work shop many possibilities.

23. 2022-05-02
    listed $285,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (452 chars)

    New Home in Fast Growing Area in St Johns County. Enjoy this 3 bedroom, 2 bath home with a one car garage and all on over an acre of beautiful land in Southern part of St Johns County. This home boasts open floor plan with 9 ft ceilings, wood self-closing cabinets, granite tops in bathrooms and kitchen, stainless appliances, and back patio. No HOA , no rules will allow you to have a future large shed for your RV or car work shop many possibilities.

24. 2021-08-16
    soldstatus $12,000
25. 1981-01-01
    soldstatus $5,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,508 · $292/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,508 · $292/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,639
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,959
• − Property taxes: −$3,508
• − Insurance: −$1,424
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,651
• − Management: −$1,651
• − Depreciation: −$8,288
• Taxable loss: −$11,843
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,842
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,715/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Johns
• NCES district ID: 1201740
• Math proficiency: 75% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $66,842
• Composite: 64.31/100
• National rank: #556
• State rank: #2 of 73 in FL

Livability — Flagler Estates

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #763
• US rank: #16863

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Flagler Estates, FL
• Population (ZIP): 5,750

Population outlook (St. Johns County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 303,941 people
• By 2030: 342,590 · +12.7%
• By 2040: 417,328 · +37.3%
• By 2050: 487,011 · +60.2%
• By 2075: 635,395 · +109.1%
• By 2100: 717,469 · +136.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Two or more races 16% Hispanic / Latino 9% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Estonian 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Johns

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.4) · D 33.9% · R 65.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: -31.6pp · 2024: -31.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.4 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+33.4 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+31.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 40.24%
• Current HPI: 250.8035
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+5598.0% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Price Changed $284,900 realMLS
• 2026-05-29 Price Changed $287,000 realMLS
• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $287,500 realMLS
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $288,500 realMLS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $289,900 realMLS
• 2025-11-10 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2025-09-09 Price Changed $250,000 realMLS
• 2025-08-23 Listed $275,000 realMLS
• 2022-08-02 Sold (MLS) $285,500 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2022-06-19 Contingent — St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2022-05-02 Listed $285,000 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2021-08-16 Sold (Public Records) $12,000 Public Records
• 1981-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $5,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+26.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,508 · +27.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.