13051 Lake Fryer · St. Hedwig, TX 78152

$205,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,213 sqft · SingleFamily · 50 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition 4,791 sqft lot $169/sqft · 15% above area Est $178k · 15% over $17/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• Appreciation +5.6/10.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• ARV discount +0.7/15.0

Listing remarks

* 5% lender incentive offered with the use of the seller's in-house lender! Incentive may be used towards buyer closing costs and/or rate buy-down, subject to lender approval and buyer qualification. The Brower - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location at the front of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms just off the main living areas. Prices and features may vary and are subject to change.

Key facts

• 4,791 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2025

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Down payment resources available
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; HOA fee $200 annually; Association transfer fee $450; Neighborhood amenities: Other (see remarks)

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Utilities: Water system; Sewer system
• Home design: New construction by Lennar; Single-family property; Entry level: all bedrooms downstairs
• Construction: Cement fiber exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Approximately 1 year old
• Exterior features: Privacy fence; Lot in Spring Grove subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Stove/Range; Dishwasher; 10 x 10 kitchen
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on lower level with walk-in closet and full bath; Bedroom 2: 10 x 10; Bedroom 3: 10 x 10; Master bedroom dimensions: 10 x 12
• Flooring: Carpeting; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bath with tub/shower combination
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Electric and natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floor plan; Breakfast bar; Utility room inside; Cable TV available; All bedrooms on lower level; Laundry on main level; Walk-in closets; 1 living area
• Laundry & utility: Washer connection; Dryer connection; Laundry located on main level; Utility room inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $205k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $64 ($768/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $163k (20.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $163k (20.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 4.0% in St. Hedwig — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• East Central ISD (rural): math 16% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #758 of 826 in TX (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Tradition El (math 25% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,706 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 993 students, 51% FRL); East Central H S (math 21% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,264 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 3,252 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 155 active listings in the ZIP; 35 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 16% of the median local income ($124k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.2% local appreciation)).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($199k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $163,115 (20.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.34%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $178,139
• List price: $205,000
• Delta: 15.08%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3833 Ivy Path	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,237 (+2%)	10mo	$225,000	$182	80
12935 Deep Eddy	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,125 (-7%)	2mo	$183,700	$163	76
13011 Kathleen	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,235 (+2%)	13mo	$239,990	$194	72
12930 Deep Eddy	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,300 (+7%)	8mo	$227,800	$175	70
3534 Jacobs Wl	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,354 (+12%)	13mo	$199,559	$147	65
13104 Hancock Pool	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,380 (+14%)	13mo	$166,499	$121	64
3618 Jacobs Wl	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,354 (+12%)	13mo	$196,079	$145	63
12915 Cicely Ct	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,339 (+10%)	1mo	$209,900	$157	61
3526 Jacobs Wl	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,380 (+14%)	12mo	$179,499	$130	60
3614 Jacobs Wl	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,380 (+14%)	13mo	$206,499	$150	60
4506 Heathers Rose	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,234 (+2%)	14mo	$228,900	$185	53
12815 Ratcliff Lk	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,380 (+14%)	14mo	$167,692	$122	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.24% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $5,493
• Equity at exit: $72,598

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.57×
• Total profit: $32,731
• Equity at exit: $98,531

Cash invested: $57,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78152

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 155
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,631 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax from tax record: −$47 /mo · $566/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$17
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$343
• Net cashflow: $64

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,550

Max offer price $205,000

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,250
• Closing costs: $6,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 35 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12932 Lake Fryer Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1230	$1,200	$0.98	3d	1	0.12mi
3414 Jacobs Wls Saint Hedwig, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,325	$0.91	4d	1	0.15mi
12942 Deep Eddy Saint Hedwig, TX	3.0	2.0	1129	$1,495	$1.32	44d	1	0.24mi
3923 Ivy Path Saint Hedwig, TX	3.0	2.0	1445	$1,600	$1.11	24d	1	0.26mi
3815 Abbott Pass Unit 102 St Hedwig, TX	3.0	2.5	1345	$1,450	$1.08	44d	1	0.29mi
3909 Asher Aly Saint Hedwig, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1575	$1,399	$0.89	2d	1	0.32mi
13015 Kathleen St Saint Hedwig, TX	3.0	2.0	1235	$1,540	$1.25	22d	1	0.32mi
13015 Kathleen St Saint Hedwig, TX	3.0	2.0	1235	$1,540	$1.25	24d	1	0.32mi
3921 Abbott Pass Unit 101 St Hedwig, TX	3.0	2.5	1345	$1,595	$1.19	11d	1	0.38mi
13015 Red Elks Lks Saint Hedwig, TX	3.0	2.0	1445	$1,650	$1.14	3d	1	0.38mi
3925 Abbott Pass Unit 101 St Hedwig, TX	3.0	2.5	1345	$1,450	$1.08	44d	1	0.38mi
3933 Abbott Pass Unit 101 St Hedwig, TX	3.0	2.5	1345	$1,450	$1.08	24d	1	0.40mi
3937 Abbott Pass Unit 102 St Hedwig, TX	3.0	2.5	1345	$1,495	$1.11	44d	1	0.41mi
3932 Abbott Pass Unit 102 St Hedwig, TX	3.0	2.5	1345	$1,495	$1.11	24d	1	0.42mi
3936 Abbott Pass Unit 101 St Hedwig, TX	3.0	2.5	1345	$1,450	$1.08	22d	1	0.42mi
4211 Asher Aly Saint Hedwig, TX	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,438	$1.15	3d	1	0.48mi
13023 Heathers Elm Saint Hedwig, TX	3.0	2.0	1234	$1,500	$1.22	2d	1	0.65mi
4918 Valenzuela Converse, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1719	$1,699	$0.99	2d	82	1.03mi
4522 Meerkat Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1489	$1,750	$1.18	11d	1	1.03mi
13302 Savory Pl Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1217	$1,499	$1.23	12d	1	1.14mi
13505 Sunrise Mdw Saint Hedwig, TX	3.0	2.0	1111	$1,671	$1.50	4d	1	1.17mi
13014 Rosemary Cv Saint Hedwig, TX	3.0	2.0	1479	$1,800	$1.22	24d	1	1.17mi
5135 Morning Graze Saint Hedwig, TX	3.0	2.0	1211	$1,575	$1.30	22d	1	1.18mi
13551 Lunar Lgt Saint Hedwig, TX	3.0	2.0	1211	$1,550	$1.28	24d	1	1.18mi
5333 Basil Chase Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,680	$1.14	15d	1	1.19mi
5510 Basil Chase St Hedwig, TX	3.0	2.0	1217	$1,625	$1.34	18d	1	1.21mi
13603 Lunar Lgt Saint Hedwig, TX	3.0	2.0	1209	$1,475	$1.22	16d	1	1.22mi
13603 Lunar Lgt Saint Hedwig, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,500	$1.25	24d	1	1.22mi
5214 Winding Strm Saint Hedwig, TX	3.0	2.0	1401	$1,500	$1.07	4d	1	1.26mi
5214 Winding Strm Saint Hedwig, TX	3.0	2.0	1398	$1,500	$1.07	18d	1	1.26mi
13714 Lunar Lgt Saint Hedwig, TX	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,645	$1.17	4d	1	1.27mi
5330 Lisa Pt Converse, TX	3.0	2.5	1250	$1,450	$1.16	2d	1	1.28mi
5546 Basil Chase Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1217	$1,829	$1.50	3d	1	1.29mi
5042 Firefly Hls Saint Hedwig, TX	3.0	2.0	1105	$1,595	$1.44	24d	1	1.34mi
13715 Summer Lgt Saint Hedwig, TX	3.0	2.0	1401	$1,575	$1.12	3d	1	1.37mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $17 · $204/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $205,000 Active 50 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $205,000 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $205,000 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $205,000 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $205,000 Active 45 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $205,000 Active 41 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $205,000 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $205,000 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $205,000 Active 36 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $205,000 Active 35 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    statusdays on market $205,000 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $205,000 Price Change 33 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $205,000 Price Change 32 DOM
14. 2026-04-29
    listed $210,000 New 518-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $566 · $47/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,752 · $313/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,186/yr (+$265/mo · 562.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,574
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,483
• − Property taxes: −$566
• − Insurance: −$1,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,566
• − Management: −$1,566
• − HOA: −$204
• − Depreciation: −$5,964
• Taxable loss: −$2,800
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$672
• After-tax cash flow: $1,440/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan with good condition and minimal repairs needed. It is move-in ready and has the potential for further value increases with minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Installing new flooring in the kitchen and bathrooms — New flooring can improve the overall look and feel of the home
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase the home's appeal and functionality
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's value and appeal to tech-savvy buyers

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Installing new flooring in the kitchen and bathrooms — New flooring can improve the overall look and feel of the home ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase the home's appeal and functionality ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's value and appeal to tech-savvy buyers ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Central ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817850
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $53,941
• Composite: 18.67/100
• National rank: #8887
• State rank: #758 of 826 in TX

Livability — St. Hedwig

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Bexar County · 1,990,555 people
• City population: 3,958
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 4,521
• Household income: $123,981
• Rent vs Own: 16.6% rent · 83.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 27.0

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 21% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 17% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.24%
• Current HPI: 328.7859
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.90%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Price Changed $205,000 LERA
• 2026-04-29 Listed $210,000 LERA

Property tax history

+17.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $566 · +17.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.