2326 Calm Channel Ct · Sienna, TX 77459

$412,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,526 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 63 Days on market

Built 2020 7,257 sqft lot $163/sqft · 18% below area Est $504k · 18% under $100/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Beautifully maintained home located in a quiet residential neighborhood, offering a comfortable and functional layout ideal for everyday living and entertaining. The property features a spacious open-concept living area filled with natural light, a well-appointed kitchen with ample cabinet and counter space, and generously sized bedrooms designed for comfort and privacy. The primary suite provides a relaxing retreat with a private bath and walk-in closet. The backyard offers plenty of room for outdoor enjoyment, gatherings, or future customization. Conveniently situated with easy access to major roads, shopping, dining, and local amenities, this home presents a wonderful opportunity for bot

Key facts

• Private bath
• Walk-in closet
• Backyard

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• WELL-APPOINTED KITCHEN
• PRIVATE BATH
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• BACKYARD
• EASY ACCESS TO MAJOR ROADS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $412k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $307 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $412k).
• Recommended offer: $387k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 3.3% in Sienna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1228 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,894/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($129k/yr) (locally 1004% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($387k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $387,280 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.20%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $503,610
• List price: $412,000
• Delta: -18.19%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2119 Long Spring Dr	0.35mi	4/3.0	2,522 (-0%)	8mo	$410,989	$163	77
8726 Windsong Trail Dr	0.57mi	4/3.0	2,517 (-0%)	5mo	$359,900	$143	69
8703 Red Heron Ln	0.29mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,615 (+4%)	8mo	$459,000	$176	67
1919 Waters Branch Dr	0.53mi	4/3.0	2,591 (+3%)	7mo	$439,990	$170	65
8723 Arbor Trail Dr	0.62mi	4/3.0	2,381 (-6%)	3mo	$365,000	$153	59
8715 Morris Woods Dr	0.32mi	4/3.0	2,251 (-11%)	11mo	$425,000	$189	58
2023 Green Haven Ct	0.66mi	4/3.0	2,623 (+4%)	8mo	$450,000	$172	56
8711 Fairbrook Dr	0.74mi	4/3.5	2,413 (-4%)	6mo	$409,900	$170	51
1706 Country Air Ln	0.71mi	4/3.5	2,700 (+7%)	6mo	$375,000	$139	48
1722 Country Air Ln	0.68mi	4/3.0	2,773 (+10%)	6mo	$419,000	$151	47
8715 Fox Trail Dr	0.51mi	4/2.5	2,152 (-15%)	9mo	$349,999	$163	42
1743 Country Air Ln	0.67mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,290 (-9%)	6mo	$385,000	$168	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.67% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-37,546
• Equity at exit: $86,408

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-39,545
• Equity at exit: $80,035

Cash invested: $115,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77459

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 1228
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,894 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,161
• Tax from tax record: −$1,127 /mo · $13,521/yr
• Insurance: −$172
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,028
• Net cashflow: $307

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,505

Max offer price $412,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $540	-5% $424	+0% $307	+5% $191	+10% $74
Rent	-10% $-79	-5% $114	+0% $307	+5% $501	+10% $694
Rate	-1.0pp $515	-0.5pp $412	base $307	+0.5pp $200	+1.0pp $92

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $103,000
• Closing costs: $12,360
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2142 Ironwood Pass Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2140	$6,000	$2.80	0d	1	0.23mi
8719 Fox Trail Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	2143	$6,000	$2.80	23d	1	0.48mi
2718 Van Gogh Ln Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	3036	$3,595	$1.18	11d	1	0.57mi
1714 Forest Mist Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	3.0	1979	$3,000	$1.52	45d	1	1.10mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $412,000 Active 63 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $412,000 Active 60 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $412,000 Active 59 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $412,000 Active 58 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $412,000 Active 57 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $412,000 Active 55 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $412,000 Active 51 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $412,000 Active 49 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $412,000 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $412,000 Active 45 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $412,000 Active 44 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $412,000 Active 43 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $412,000 Active 42 DOM
14. 2026-05-17
    historical
15. 2026-05-07
    status Active
16. 2026-05-06
    historical
17. 2026-04-16
    listed $412,000 Active
18. 2026-04-14
    historical
19. 2026-04-01
    status Active
20. 2026-03-31
    historical
21. 2026-03-25
    price $420,000
22. 2026-03-23
    status Active
23. 2026-03-22
    historical
24. 2026-03-10
    listed $425,000 Active
25. 2026-03-09
    historical
26. 2026-02-27
    listed $448,000 Active
27. 2020-06-11
    soldstatus Sold
28. 2020-05-26
    status Pending
29. 2020-04-06
    price $371,900
30. 2020-03-10
    price $381,900
31. 2020-01-13
    listed $380,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $13,521 · $1,127/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $13,521 · $1,127/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $58,728
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,078
• − Property taxes: −$13,521
• − Insurance: −$2,060
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,698
• − Management: −$4,698
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$11,985
• Taxable loss: −$2,514
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$603
• After-tax cash flow: $4,290/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sienna

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sienna, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,221
• Household income: $129,151
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1004.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 26% Asian 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 8% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.67%
• Current HPI: 212.3573
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.15%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+8.2% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-07 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-05-06 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Listed $412,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-14 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-01 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $420,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-23 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-03-22 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-10 Listed $425,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-09 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-27 Listed $448,000 HARMLS
• 2020-06-11 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2020-05-26 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-04-06 Price Changed $371,900 HARMLS
• 2020-03-10 Price Changed $381,900 HARMLS
• 2020-01-13 Listed $380,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+48.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $13,521 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.