340 Tom Bell Rd sp #190 · Murphys, CA 95247

$174,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Manufactured · 137 Days on market

Built 1978 Est $338k · 48% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover a lifestyle of comfortable living at 340 tom Bell Road, space #190 in Murphys, Ca. This inviting, ready-to-move in mobile home offers 1680 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space promising a seamless transition to your new chapter. Enter through the formal living room, with loads of windows, and a dining room area with a built in hutch. Enjoy the separate Great Room off of the kitchen area with a built in Bar for entertaining boasting a mini refrigerator and sink. The kitchen has a walk-in pantry and a breakfast bar. The main bedroom has 2 closets with mirrored doors and the spacious bath has a separate shower and sunken tub with lots of cabinet space. The guest bedroom h

Key facts

• Mini refrigerator
• Built in bar
• Built in hutch

Tags

• FORMAL LIVING ROOM
• DINING ROOM AREA
• BUILT IN HUTCH
• SEPARATE GREAT ROOM
• BUILT IN BAR
• MINI REFRIGERATOR

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Located in a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking for 2 (no garage)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; 220V in kitchen; Cable available; Internet available; Underground utilities; Master electric meter; Master gas meter
• Home design: Manufactured home in park; Triple-wide; Original condition; Built in 1978; Single-story layout; Located in a senior community
• Construction: Vinyl skirting; Roof: Other; Manufacturer: Silvercrest (Signature model)
• Exterior features: Porch awning; Attached deck (living/family room access); Storage area; Outdoor shed(s); Landscaped front

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing refrigerator; Free-standing electric range; Hood over range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal; Ice maker; Pantry closet
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (including master bedroom)
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Double sinks; Sunken tub; Tub and separate shower stall(s)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Ductless heating/cooling; Wall furnace; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Wet bar; Bay windows; Dual-pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room; Stacked washer/dryer included (electric); 220V in laundry; Utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $174k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $315 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $174k).
• Recommended offer: $154k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 1.1% in Murphys — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#514 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A-, schools B; Watch: employment C-, housing D, amenities F.
• Bret Harte Union High (town): math 35% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #429 of 1,400 in CA (top 31%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 123 active listings in the ZIP; 77 units permitted in Calaveras County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Calaveras County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 137 days — a 12% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $153,560 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 137 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.73%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $337,680
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
340 Tom Bell Rd #130	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-14%)	8mo	$337,000	$234	70
227 Rattlesnake Dick	0.16mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,568 (-7%)	9mo	$169,000	$108	69
254 Three Finger Jack #254	0.14mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (-14%)	6mo	$290,000	$201	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-8,211
• Equity at exit: $26,019

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.38×
• Total profit: $18,768
• Equity at exit: $15,088

Cash invested: $48,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95247

• Active inventory: 123
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,925 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$915
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$218 /mo · $2,618/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$404
• Net cashflow: $315

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,526

Max offer price $174,500

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $435	-5% $375	+0% $315	+5% $254	+10% $194
Rent	-10% $163	-5% $239	+0% $315	+5% $391	+10% $467
Rate	-1.0pp $402	-0.5pp $359	base $315	+0.5pp $269	+1.0pp $223

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,625
• Closing costs: $5,235
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $174,500 Active 137 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $174,500 Active 135 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $174,500 Active 134 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $174,500 Active 133 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $174,500 Active 132 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $174,500 Active 131 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $174,500 Active 129 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $174,500 Active 128 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $174,500 Active 126 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $174,500 Active 125 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $174,500 Active 124 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $174,500 Active 123 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $174,500 Active 122 DOM
14. 2026-06-05
    days on market $174,500 Active 120 DOM
15. 2026-06-03
    days on market $174,500 Active 119 DOM
16. 2026-06-02
    days on market $174,500 Active 118 DOM
17. 2026-06-01
    days on market $174,500 Active 117 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $174,500 Active 116 DOM
19. 2026-05-30
    days on market $174,500 Active 115 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 27 unhealthy d/yr today · 31 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,097
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,775
• − Property taxes: −$2,618
• − Insurance: −$872
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,848
• − Management: −$1,848
• − Depreciation: −$5,076
• Taxable income: $1,060
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$254
• After-tax cash flow: $3,521/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bret Harte Union High
• NCES district ID: 0605940
• Math proficiency: 35% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $56,974
• Composite: 45.41/100
• National rank: #5708
• State rank: #429 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Murphys

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #514
• US rank: #17432

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment C- Housing D Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Murphys, CA
• City population: 3,682
• Population (ZIP): 3,682

Population outlook (Calaveras County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 43,163 people
• By 2030: 41,703 · -3.4%
• By 2040: 38,202 · -11.5%
• By 2050: 35,385 · -18.0%
• By 2075: 30,807 · -28.6%
• By 2100: 25,755 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Russian 3% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Calaveras

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.1) · D 34.7% · R 62.8% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.2pp toward R · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -28.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.1 2020: R+23.8 2016: R+23.9 2012: R+17.0 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -164.37%
• Current HPI: 149.5376
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B