130 Sable Dr · South Middleton, PA 17013

$240,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,629 sqft · Townhouse public records · 14 Days on market

Built 2007 7,405 sqft lot Est $248k · at est. $40/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.4/30.0
• ARV discount +8.9/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

ATTRACTIVE BRICK & VINYL 3 BEDROOM, 2.5 BATH END UNIT TOWNHOUSE IN HIGHLY DESIRABLE S. MIDDLETON SCHOOL DISTRICT FEATURING 1 CAR GARAGE , OPEN STAIRCASE FOYER, LARGE LIVING ROOM, EAT-IN KITCHEN WITH GAS RANGE & PANTRY, ALL APPLIANCES CONVEY, FENCED IN PRIVATE BACKYARD WITH DECK, HUGE MASTER SUITE WITH WALK IN CLOSET & PRIVATE BATH AND CONVENIENT 2ND FLOOR LAUNDRY. SAVE MONEY ON UTILITIES WITH HIGHLY EFFICIENT GAS HEAT ALONG WITH CENTRAL AIR. LOW $40/MONTH HOA FEE.

Key facts

• $40 HOA
• Garage
• Built 2007

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Land and improvement assessed values recorded

Exterior

• Parking: Attached covered garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service
• Home design: End of row/townhouse design; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Brick and vinyl siding exterior; Foundation described as other; Year built sourced from assessor
• Exterior features: End-of-row townhouse; Above-grade and below-grade structures noted; Not in a federal flood zone

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (appliances not specified)
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the upper level (master bedroom plus two additional bedrooms)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (on upper levels); One half bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning; Electric hot water
• Interior features: Estimated living area; 2+ access exits; No basement; Rooms include living room, dining room, foyer, utility room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-41 ($-491/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $233k (3.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (17.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $199k (17.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• South Middleton SD (town): math 45% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #106 of 539 in PA (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: W.G. Rice El Sch (432 students, 38% FRL); Yellow Breeches Ms (math 27% / reading 59%, grade D-, #214 of 512 statewide, top 42%, 474 students, 31% FRL); Boiling Springs Hs (math 72% / reading 72%, grade B+, #39 of 437 statewide, top 9%, 777 students, 22% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 312 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,052 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (310 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cumberland County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $150k; list at $240k implies a 60% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $198,559 (17.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.73%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $247,608
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
134 Sable Dr	0.01mi	3/2.5	1,629 (0%)	1mo	$223,000	$137	99
315 Pelham Ct	0.07mi	3/2.5	1,584 (-3%)	8mo	$316,725	$200	86
319 Pelham Ct	0.07mi	3/2.5	1,584 (-3%)	8mo	$307,000	$194	85
317 Pelham Ct	0.07mi	3/2.5	1,584 (-3%)	9mo	$240,000	$152	85
313 Pelham Ct	0.09mi	3/2.5	1,584 (-3%)	13mo	$329,700	$208	80
202 Sable Dr	0.07mi	3/2.5	1,629 (0%)	23mo	$240,200	$147	78
116 Sable Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,570 (-4%)	18mo	$231,000	$147	74
310 Fairview St	0.69mi	3/1.5	1,608 (-1%)	0mo	$140,000	$87	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-42,411
• Equity at exit: $35,785

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-44,005
• Equity at exit: $20,751

Cash invested: $67,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17013

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 312
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,986 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax from tax record: −$211 /mo · $2,531/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$40
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$417
• Net cashflow: $-41

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,037

Max offer price $232,774

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $95	-5% $27	+0% $-41	+5% $-109	+10% $-177
Rent	-10% $-198	-5% $-119	+0% $-41	+5% $38	+10% $116
Rate	-1.0pp $80	-0.5pp $20	base $-41	+0.5pp $-103	+1.0pp $-166

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,000
• Closing costs: $7,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
134 Sable Dr Carlisle, PA	3.0	2.5	1629	$2,100	$1.29	15d	1	0.04mi
206 Alfalfa Dr CARLISLE BRKS, PA	4.0	2.5	1625	$2,050	$1.26	25d	1	0.41mi
308 Alfalfa Dr CARLISLE BRKS, PA	4.0	2.5	1625	$2,150	$1.32	25d	1	0.41mi
315 York Rd Carlisle, PA	3.0	2.5	1604	$2,100	$1.31	15d	1	0.50mi
79 Dawn Ridge Loop Carlisle, PA	2.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	1179	$1,474	$1.25	15d	4	0.51mi
495 S Spring Garden St #308 Carlisle, PA	4.0	2.5	1625	$1,835	$1.13	45d	1	0.64mi
495 S Spring Garden St #202 Carlisle, PA	4.0	2.5	1625	$2,050	$1.26	25d	1	0.64mi
495 S Spring Garden St #109 Carlisle, PA	4.0	2.5	1625	$2,150	$1.32	25d	1	0.64mi
495 S Spring Garden St Unit 302 Carlisle, PA	4.0	2.5	1625	$1,735	$1.07	45d	1	0.64mi
1 Rush Dr Carlisle, PA	2.0	2.0	1033	$1,650	$1.60	15d	3	0.68mi
16 Brook Side Dr Carlisle, PA	3.0	2.5	1632	$1,975	$1.21	15d	1	1.08mi
26 Spring View St Carlisle, PA	2.0	2.5	1281	$1,700	$1.33	15d	1	1.13mi
34 S Hanover St Apt 3, Carlisle, PA 17013 Carlisle, PA	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,650	$1.50	25d	1	1.16mi
156 E Penn St Carlisle, PA	3.0	3.0	1808	$1,850	$1.02	25d	1	1.19mi
131 Nava CT Carlisle, PA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1345	$1,650	$1.23	15d	1	1.24mi
50 W High St Unit 203 Carlisle, PA	2.0	1.5	1100	$2,180	$1.98	25d	1	1.29mi
54 W High St Carlisle, PA	2.0	1.0	1100	$2,180	$1.98	25d	1	1.29mi
219 N Hanover St Unit 3 Carlisle, PA	2.0	1.0	1400	$1,850	$1.32	25d	1	1.33mi
7 Kerrs Ave Carlisle, PA	4.0	1.5	1652	$1,750	$1.06	45d	1	1.35mi
15 Parker Spring Ave Carlisle, PA	3.0	2.5	1810	$2,300	$1.27	15d	1	1.38mi
230 N Pitt St Carlisle, PA	3.0	1.5	1408	$1,300	$0.92	45d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $40 · $480/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $240,000 Pending 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $240,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $240,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $240,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $240,000 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $240,000 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $240,000 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $240,000 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $240,000 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    statusdays on market $240,000 Active 1 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $240,000 Coming Soon 2 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    remarks 699-char remark
13. 2026-06-01
    listed $240,000 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,531 · $211/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,162 · $263/mo
• Expected delta: +$630/yr (+$53/mo · 24.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,827
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,444
• − Property taxes: −$2,531
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,906
• − Management: −$1,906
• − HOA: −$480
• − Depreciation: −$6,982
• Taxable loss: −$4,622
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,109
• After-tax cash flow: $618/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: South Middleton SD
• NCES district ID: 4222050
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $67,822
• Composite: 47.74/100
• National rank: #2236
• State rank: #106 of 539 in PA

Livability — South Middleton

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Cumberland County · 257,673 people
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• Population (ZIP): 38,513
• Household income: $71,042
• Rent vs Own: 38.3% rent · 61.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1444.0

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 267,950 people
• By 2030: 278,105 · +3.8%
• By 2040: 296,552 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 312,937 · +16.8%
• By 2075: 349,233 · +30.3%
• By 2100: 361,875 · +35.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Black 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 3% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.4) · D 44.6% · R 54.1% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: -13.6pp · 2024: -9.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.4 2020: R+10.6 2016: R+18.6 2012: R+18.5 2008: R+13.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.48%
• Current HPI: 247.337
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.54%
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+60.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Coming Soon $240,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2017-02-21 Sold (Public Records) $149,900 Public Records
• 2017-02-17 Sold (MLS) $149,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2017-01-06 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2016-07-20 Listed $149,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2011-03-31 Sold (Public Records) $150,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,531 · +4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.