Belmont (Riverbend) Plan · Thruston, KY 42303

$75,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,193 sqft · Manufactured · 126 Days on market

Good condition $400/mo HOA · 27% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.5/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Belmont offers a smart, spacious layout designed for comfortable everyday living. This thoughtfully designed home features 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths, providing plenty of room for family and guests. At the heart of the home, you'll find a beautiful, well-appointed kitchen that flows seamlessly into an expansive living area with extended length-perfect for entertaining, relaxing, or creating flexible spaces to fit your lifestyle. With its open design and generous proportions, the Belmont delivers both functionality and style in a home that truly feels inviting.

Key facts

• Listed 125 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: List price $75,995; Address: Belmont (Riverbend) Plan, Owensboro, KY 42303
• HOA & community: Association fee $400

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family plan home; Active plan listing
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1193

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan home (Belmont - Riverbend)

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $76k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $248 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $76k).
• Recommended offer: $67k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 3.4% in Thruston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Daviess County (suburban): math 33% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #43 of 165 in KY (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: East View Elementary School (math 25% / reading 30%, grade F, #431 of 676 statewide, top 64%, 462 students, 68% FRL); Daviess County Middle School (math 38% / reading 53%, grade D+, #32 of 217 statewide, top 15%, 813 students, 55% FRL); Daviess County High School (math 40% / reading 41%, grade F, #37 of 254 statewide, top 15%, 1,740 students, 42% FRL).
• Market conditions: 366 active listings in the ZIP; 226 units permitted in Daviess County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $525 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Daviess County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 126 days — a 12% lower offer ($67k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 27% of rent.

Recommended offer $66,875 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 126 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.95% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.99%
• DSCR: 1.62
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $3,749
• Equity at exit: $11,331

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.16×
• Total profit: $24,694
• Equity at exit: $6,571

Cash invested: $21,279 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42303

• Home prices YoY: -29.1%
• Active inventory: 366
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,485 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$399
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$95 /mo · $1,140/yr
• Insurance: −$32
• HOA: −$400
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$312
• Net cashflow: $248

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,171

Max offer price $75,995

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $301	-5% $274	+0% $248	+5% $222	+10% $195
Rent	-10% $131	-5% $189	+0% $248	+5% $307	+10% $365
Rate	-1.0pp $286	-0.5pp $267	base $248	+0.5pp $228	+1.0pp $208

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,999
• Closing costs: $2,280
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $400 · $4,800/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $75,995 Active 126 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $75,995 Active 124 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,995 Active 123 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,995 Active 122 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,995 Active 121 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $75,995 Active 120 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $75,995 Active 118 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $75,995 Active 117 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $75,995 Active 115 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $75,995 Active 114 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $75,995 Active 113 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $75,995 Active 112 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $75,995 Active 109 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $75,995 Active 108 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $75,995 Active 107 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $75,995 Active 106 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,995 Active 105 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $75,995 Active 104 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,821
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,257
• − Property taxes: −$1,140
• − Insurance: −$380
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,426
• − Management: −$1,426
• − HOA: −$4,800
• − Depreciation: −$2,211
• Taxable income: $2,182
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$524
• After-tax cash flow: $2,452/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

The Belmont is a well-maintained and modern manufactured home with good condition and minimal repairs needed. It offers a spacious and functional layout with potential for minor updates to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/renters.
• Both HVAC maintenance — A clean and functioning HVAC system is essential for comfort and can improve property value.
• Both Interior touch-ups — Fresh paint and minor touch-ups can make the interior feel more inviting and modern.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/renters. ↑
• Both HVAC maintenance — A clean and functioning HVAC system is essential for comfort and can improve property value. ↑
• Both Interior touch-ups — Fresh paint and minor touch-ups can make the interior feel more inviting and modern. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Daviess County
• NCES district ID: 2101470
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $52,303
• Composite: 32.2/100
• National rank: #5778
• State rank: #43 of 165 in KY

Livability — Thruston

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Daviess County · 87,564 people
• Metro: Owensboro, KY
• Population (ZIP): 42,119
• Household income: $64,773
• Rent vs Own: 34.2% rent · 65.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 983.0

Population outlook (Daviess County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 103,810 people
• By 2030: 105,722 · +1.8%
• By 2040: 108,731 · +4.7%
• By 2050: 110,295 · +6.2%
• By 2075: 113,056 · +8.9%
• By 2100: 106,257 · +2.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Philippines
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Daviess

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.9) · D 33.3% · R 65.2% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.8pp toward R · 2008: -10.1pp · 2024: -31.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.9 2020: R+27.9 2016: R+32.2 2012: R+21.1 2008: R+10.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -89.55%
• Current HPI: 217.7128
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Owensboro, KY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B