516 Stinson St · Freer, TX 78357

$109,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,664 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 42 Days on market

Built 1900 0.35 ac lot $66/sqft · 7% above area Est $102k · 7% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.8/30.0
• DSCR +9.2/10.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• ARV discount +4.5/15.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Great Location!!! This 3 bedroom home has 2 separate living areas, 1 full bathroom & a half bath. One of the living areas could be used as an office, 4th bedroom or whatever your heart desires! There is a new metal roof, new electric water heater & a new HVAC system. The seller has done many cosmetic upgrades, as well! This property includes 2 full, corner lots that total approx. .35 of an acre! You'll have plenty of room to add a swimming pool, hot tub, etc. ! There is a 2-car garage with an attached laundry room area. There is also additional parking space in front of the garage. PLEASE NOTE: 1900 is NOT the Year Built--This is the default # that is required when the actual ye

Key facts

• New metal roof
• Corner lots
• New hvac system

Tags

• NEW METAL ROOF
• NEW ELECTRIC WATER HEATER
• NEW HVAC SYSTEM
• 2 SEPARATE LIVING AREAS
• CORNER LOTS
• ATTACHED LAUNDRY ROOM

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached front-entry garage; 2 garage spaces; 4 total parking spaces; 2 covered parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Utilities available
• Home design: Single-story home; Faces south; Corner lot
• Construction: Brick and wood siding construction; Metal roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built on a 0.35-acre lot (approx. 110 x 140)
• Exterior features: Deck; Open deck/porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $109k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $231 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $109k).
• Recommended offer: $106k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#643 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, schools F.
• Freer ISD (rural): math 34% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #575 of 826 in TX (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $747 of equity ($754 loan paydown + $-7 appreciation (-0.0% local appreciation)).
• Duval County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-0.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 95% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $105,730 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.68%
• DSCR: 1.52
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $102,102
• List price: $109,000
• Delta: 6.76%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.01% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.38×
• Total profit: $11,509
• Equity at exit: $31,614

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.42×
• Total profit: $43,382
• Equity at exit: $37,973

Cash invested: $30,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78357

• Home prices YoY: -0.0%
• Active inventory: 19
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,301 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$572
• Tax from tax record: −$114 /mo · $1,363/yr
• Insurance: −$45
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $231

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,009

Max offer price $109,000

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $292	-5% $261	+0% $231	+5% $200	+10% $169
Rent	-10% $128	-5% $179	+0% $231	+5% $282	+10% $333
Rate	-1.0pp $285	-0.5pp $258	base $231	+0.5pp $202	+1.0pp $174

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,250
• Closing costs: $3,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $109,000 Active 42 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $109,000 Active 40 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $109,000 Active 39 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $109,000 Active 38 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $109,000 Active 37 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $109,000 Active 35 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $109,000 Active 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $109,000 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $109,000 Active 30 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $109,000 Active 29 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $109,000 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $109,000 Active 25 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $109,000 Active 24 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $109,000 Active 23 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $109,000 Active 22 DOM
16. 2026-05-09
    listed $109,000 Active 719-char remark
17. 2026-03-26
    price $109,000
18. 2025-11-04
    listed $118,000 Active
19. 2024-05-21
    soldstatus
20. 2007-10-25
    soldstatus
21. 2007-03-21
    listed $47,025
22. 2001-05-17
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,363 · $114/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,995 · $166/mo
• Expected delta: +$631/yr (+$53/mo · 46.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 95% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,610
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,106
• − Property taxes: −$1,363
• − Insurance: −$1,342
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,249
• − Management: −$1,249
• − Depreciation: −$3,171
• Taxable income: $1,130
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$271
• After-tax cash flow: $2,496/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Freer ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819820
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,849
• Composite: 27.71/100
• National rank: #6910
• State rank: #575 of 826 in TX

Livability — Freer

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #643
• US rank: #12210

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Freer, TX
• Population (ZIP): 2,726

Population outlook (Duval County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,826 people
• By 2030: 10,531 · -2.7%
• By 2040: 10,015 · -7.5%
• By 2050: 9,560 · -11.7%
• By 2075: 8,442 · -22.0%
• By 2100: 6,686 · -38.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 77% Two or more races 39% White 23%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 73%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 54% English-only · Spanish 41% German/W. Germanic 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Duval

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.8) · D 44.9% · R 54.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -60.2pp toward R · 2008: 50.4pp · 2024: -9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.8 2020: D+2.6 2016: D+35.3 2012: D+54.2 2008: D+50.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▬ -0.01%
• Current HPI: 98.4455
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+131.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Listed $109,000 CBMLS
• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $109,000 CBMLS
• 2025-11-04 Listed $118,000 CBMLS
• 2024-05-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-10-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-03-21 Listed $47,025 CBMLS
• 2001-05-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,363 · -2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.