48 Caravan Ct · Middletown, PA 17057

$48,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Manufactured public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1986

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Mobile home for sale have to be mobile park approved. $620 lot rent bills are all separate. Nice quiet area 2nd bathroom needs some tiles but thats about it.

Key facts

• Built 1986
• Listed 10 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $48k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $815 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $48k).
• Cap rate 28.3% vs local median 3.1% in Middletown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#214 in PA, #1,886 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F.
• Middletown Area SD (suburban): math 31% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #368 of 539 in PA (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 146 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 540 units permitted in Dauphin County in 2024 (194 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $332 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.6% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $48,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 28.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 78.66%
• DSCR: 4.50
• GRM: 2.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.58% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 70.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.13×
• Total profit: $42,035
• Equity at exit: $7,157

10-year hold

• IRR: 74.4%
• Equity multiple: 8.08×
• Total profit: $95,176
• Equity at exit: $4,150

Cash invested: $13,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17057

• Home prices YoY: -23.9%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 146
• Price-to-rent: 2.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,497 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$252
• Tax from tax record: −$30 /mo · $360/yr
• Insurance: −$20
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$314
• Net cashflow: $815

Break-even live

Break-even rent $466

Max offer price $48,000

Occupancy floor 41%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,000
• Closing costs: $1,440
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
415 Aspen St Unit 1 Middletown, PA	2.0	1.0	864	$1,495	$1.73	13d	1	0.22mi
105 Woodland Ave Middletown, PA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	996	$1,714	$1.72	13d	9	0.69mi
1900 Pineford Dr Middletown, PA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1020	$1,690	$1.66	13d	1	0.77mi
43 E Main St Apt 4 Middletown, PA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,195	$1.20	44d	1	0.81mi
112 Nissley St Unit 2 Middletown, PA	2.0	2.0	1266	$1,350	$1.07	23d	1	1.13mi
213 S Union St Apt 1 Middletown, PA	2.0	1.0	780	$1,400	$1.79	13d	1	1.28mi
219 S Union St Fl REAR Middletown, PA	2.0	1.0	700	$900	$1.29	13d	1	1.29mi
219 S Union St Unit 2nd Floor Middletown, PA	2.0	1.0	700	$1,250	$1.79	43d	1	1.29mi
144 Wilson St Middletown, PA	3.0	1.0	1120	$1,495	$1.33	23d	1	1.29mi
167 Ann St Unit 4 Middletown, PA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,300	$1.62	13d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $48,000 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $48,000 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $48,000 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $48,000 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $48,000 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $48,000 Active 2 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   remarks 157-char remark
8. 2026-06-09
   listed $48,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $360 · $30/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $559 · $47/mo
• Expected delta: +$199/yr (+$17/mo · 55.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,965
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,689
• − Property taxes: −$360
• − Insurance: −$1,038
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,437
• − Management: −$1,437
• − Depreciation: −$1,396
• Taxable income: $9,608
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,306
• After-tax cash flow: $7,468/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Middletown Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4215240
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $53,128
• Composite: 33.08/100
• National rank: #5567
• State rank: #368 of 539 in PA

Livability — Middletown

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #214
• US rank: #1886

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Middletown, PA
• County: Dauphin County · 247,857 people
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• Population (ZIP): 23,560
• Household income: $73,407
• Rent vs Own: 33.4% rent · 66.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 748.0

Population outlook (Dauphin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 281,628 people
• By 2030: 283,549 · +0.7%
• By 2040: 285,385 · +1.3%
• By 2050: 286,188 · +1.6%
• By 2075: 291,053 · +3.3%
• By 2100: 282,374 · +0.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 7%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dauphin

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.9) · D 52.4% · R 46.5% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.1pp toward R · 2008: 9.1pp · 2024: 5.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.9 2020: D+8.5 2016: D+2.8 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+9.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.17%
• Current HPI: 265.6077
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.58%
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $48,000 FSBO.com

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $360 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.