3015 Meadowview Dr · Missouri City, TX 77459

$294,257

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,157 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1976 7,422 sqft lot Est $319k · 8% under $12/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.9/30.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Single-story brick home in an established Missouri City neighborhood offers a layout built for real life. The step-down living room flows to a formal dining area beneath a chandelier and exposed beam. A built-in wet bar with stone accents and wine rack sets the tone for entertaining. The kitchen features warm wood cabinetry, stainless appliances, and a breakfast nook that opens to the family room. A brick fireplace anchors the family room; French doors lead to a pergola-covered backyard with mature shade trees. Primary suite includes a walk-in closet and updated en-suite bath. Community pool. Minutes to major employers, top-rated FBISD schools, and Hwy 6. This one checks every box. AC -2018

Key facts

• Brick fireplace
• Walk-in closet
• Built-in wet bar

Tags

• BUILT-IN WET BAR
• BRICK FIREPLACE
• PERGOLA-COVERED BACKYARD
• MATURE SHADE TREES
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• UPDATED EN-SUITE BATH

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association: Quail Valley East CA / Randall Mgmt; Annual association fee of $147; Community pool

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1976; Slab foundation; Shingle and wood roof
• Construction: Brick and wood siding construction
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Private, fully fenced yard; Back yard fencing; Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave; Trash compactor; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (First floor) — 16 x 13; Bedroom (First floor) — 13 x 10; Bedroom (First floor) — 11 x 10; Bedroom (First floor) — 10 x 10
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Wet bar; Kitchen and family room combo; Primary bathroom with soaking tub and separate shower; Tub/shower; Ceiling fans; Wood-burning fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Utility room (First floor) — 7 x 6

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $294k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-130 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $271k (7.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $252k (14.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $252k (14.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.6% in Missouri City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#526 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lantern Lane El (math 17% / reading 37%, grade F, #2,791 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 472 students, 77% FRL); Quail Valley Middle (math 55% / reading 57%, grade B-, #234 of 1,662 statewide, top 14%, 1,043 students, 45% FRL); Fort Bend Co Alter (26 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1229 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $251,842 (14.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.89%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $319,236
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2818 Eaglerock Cir	0.51mi	4/2.0	2,146 (-0%)	2mo	$289,000	$135	73
1747 Hilton Head Dr	0.31mi	4/2.5	2,030 (-6%)	2mo	$300,000	$148	72
3519 Telford Ln Ln	0.72mi	4/2.0	2,165 (+0%)	2mo	$345,000	$159	64
2134 Hilton Head Dr	0.29mi	4/2.5	2,420 (+12%)	1mo	$259,777	$107	63
2914 Quail Valley East Dr	0.69mi	4/2.5	2,146 (-0%)	2mo	$299,000	$139	63
2503 Fall Meadow Dr	0.53mi	4/2.0	2,319 (+8%)	2mo	$279,990	$121	61
2726 Valley Forest Dr	0.44mi	4/2.0	1,937 (-10%)	4mo	$298,000	$154	60
2230 Quail Valley East Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,838 (-15%)	2mo	$224,900	$122	52
3815 Lamplighter Cir	0.64mi	4/2.5	2,343 (+9%)	4mo	$300,000	$128	51
3626 Telford Ln	0.71mi	4/3.0	2,330 (+8%)	0mo	$365,000	$157	49
3607 Point Clear Dr	0.52mi	4/3.0	2,467 (+14%)	1mo	$369,900	$150	47
1519 Wells Manor Ln	0.66mi	4/2.0	1,881 (-13%)	2mo	$327,000	$174	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.67% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-46,479
• Equity at exit: $61,714

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-64,068
• Equity at exit: $57,162

Cash invested: $82,392 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77459

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 1229
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,518 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,543
• Tax from tax record: −$442 /mo · $5,301/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$12
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$529
• Net cashflow: $-130

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,683

Max offer price $271,303

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $37	-5% $-47	+0% $-130	+5% $-213	+10% $-297
Rent	-10% $-329	-5% $-229	+0% $-130	+5% $-30	+10% $69
Rate	-1.0pp $18	-0.5pp $-55	base $-130	+0.5pp $-206	+1.0pp $-284

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,564
• Closing costs: $8,828
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2010 Quail Valley East Dr Missouri City, TX	5.0	3.0	2651	$2,695	$1.02	45d	1	0.08mi
3618 Quail Meadow Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1618	$1,966	$1.22	45d	1	0.45mi
2307 Hilton Head Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.0	2606	$2,239	$0.86	18d	1	0.47mi
2319 Quail Valley East Dr Missouri City, TX	5.0	3.0	2235	$2,000	$0.89	45d	1	0.50mi
1919 Doliver Cir Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1515	$2,000	$1.32	45d	1	0.51mi
2910 Fawn Ct Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2330	$2,220	$0.95	45d	1	0.70mi
17318 Edgehaven Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1448	$1,695	$1.17	22d	1	0.74mi
1323 Park Crest Dr Missouri City, TX	5.0	3.0	2607	$2,600	$1.00	45d	1	0.78mi
4039 Mission Valley Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2364	$2,495	$1.06	24d	1	0.79mi
3907 Kiamesha Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2896	$2,750	$0.95	19d	1	0.83mi
1109 Lakes Edge Ln Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2847	$2,800	$0.98	22d	1	1.10mi
3912 Cedar Valley Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	2151	$2,200	$1.02	22d	1	1.33mi
1935 Poco Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2868	$2,326	$0.81	24d	1	1.39mi
2026 Summer Place Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1837	$1,861	$1.01	22d	1	1.42mi
1806 Courtside Place Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	1974	$1,915	$0.97	14d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $12 · $144/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $294,257 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $294,257 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $294,257 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $294,257 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $294,257 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $294,257 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,301 · $442/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,385 · $449/mo
• Expected delta: +$84/yr (+$7/mo · 1.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,221
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,483
• − Property taxes: −$5,301
• − Insurance: −$1,471
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,418
• − Management: −$2,418
• − HOA: −$144
• − Depreciation: −$8,560
• Taxable loss: −$6,574
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,578
• After-tax cash flow: $19/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Missouri City

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #526
• US rank: #10308

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Missouri City, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,221
• Household income: $129,151
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1004.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 26% Asian 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 8% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.67%
• Current HPI: 212.3573
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.15%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $294,257 HARMLS

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,301 · +5.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.