1318 E 4th St · Bethlehem, PA 18015

$300,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,276 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 29 Days on market

Built 1916 5,480 sqft lot Est $257k · 17% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful maintained detached home in the heart of Bethlehem, PA. Home is minutes away from Wind Creek Casino, Lehigh University, popular restaurants and the vibrant lifestyle that South side offers. Featuring 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and large 2- car garage. The property offers the perfect combination of comfort, convenience, and location.

Key facts

• 5,480 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1916

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Parking garage; Detached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Gas water heater
• Home design: Above-grade finished area approximately 1,776; Below-grade finished area approximately 500; Zoning: RM
• Construction: Year built: Unknown
• Exterior features: Public sewer; Public water

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the second floor; Additional attic room on the third level (estimated 12 x 12)
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Hardwood
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the second floor; One half bathroom on the first floor
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Attic; Dining area; Eat-in kitchen; Storage
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-8 ($-99/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $299k (0.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $253k (15.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $253k (15.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.2% in Bethlehem — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#138 in PA, #1,122 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F.
• Bethlehem Area SD (urban): math 31% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #342 of 539 in PA (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.2%/yr); 156 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 567 units permitted in Northampton County in 2024 (151 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,527/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($61k/yr) (locally 1525% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($296k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1916 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $252,726 (15.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1916 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.12%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $257,188
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
665 HAYES St	0.63mi	4/3.0	2,434 (+7%)	18mo	$275,000	$113	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.18% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-38,068
• Equity at exit: $44,731

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $15,704
• Equity at exit: $25,939

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18015

• Home prices YoY: -30.7%
• Rents YoY: 7.2%
• Active inventory: 156
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,527 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$307 /mo · $3,679/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$531
• Net cashflow: $-8

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,538

Max offer price $298,539

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $162	-5% $77	+0% $-8	+5% $-93	+10% $-178
Rent	-10% $-208	-5% $-108	+0% $-8	+5% $92	+10% $191
Rate	-1.0pp $143	-0.5pp $68	base $-8	+0.5pp $-86	+1.0pp $-165

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1122 E 4th St Bethlehem, PA	4.0	1.0	1706	$1,800	$1.06	15d	1	0.37mi
314 State St Bethlehem, PA	4.0	2.0	1654	$2,650	$1.60	15d	1	0.50mi
612 E 5th St Bethlehem, PA	4.0	2.0	1814	$2,500	$1.38	44d	1	0.80mi
417 Linden St Bethlehem, PA	3.0	1.5	1699	$2,450	$1.44	3d	1	1.01mi
239 E Church St Bethlehem, PA	3.0	2.5	1724	$2,950	$1.71	24d	1	1.04mi
305 S Oak St Unit 305 Freemansburg, PA	3.0	4.0	2088	$2,750	$1.32	15d	1	1.17mi
1430 Jadden Ct Bethlehem, PA	3.0	2.5	1690	$2,650	$1.57	24d	1	1.22mi
1138 Arcadia St Bethlehem, PA	3.0	1.0	1802	$2,095	$1.16	44d	1	1.31mi
1540 Ravena St Bethlehem, PA	4.0	2.5	2106	$3,150	$1.50	44d	1	1.38mi
129 E Goepp St Bethlehem, PA	3.0	2.0	1648	$2,600	$1.58	3d	1	1.46mi
435 Montclair Ave Bethlehem, PA	5.0	2.0	2051	$3,375	$1.65	44d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $300,000 Active 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $300,000 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $300,000 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $300,000 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   pricedays on market $300,000 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $330,000 Active 21 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $330,000 Active 20 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $330,000 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $330,000 Active 18 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $330,000 Active 14 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    price $330,000 Active 13 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $340,000 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $340,000 Active 12 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $340,000 Active 11 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $340,000 Active 10 DOM
16. 2026-04-17
    listed $340,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,679 · $307/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,209 · $351/mo
• Expected delta: +$531/yr (+$44/mo · 14.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 20% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,327
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$3,679
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,426
• − Management: −$2,426
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$5,236
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,257
• After-tax cash flow: $1,157/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bethlehem Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4203570
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $55,124
• Composite: 34.92/100
• National rank: #5068
• State rank: #342 of 539 in PA

Livability — Bethlehem

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #138
• US rank: #1122

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bethlehem, PA
• County: Northampton County · 236,814 people
• City population: 129,661
• Metro: Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ
• Population (ZIP): 34,852
• Household income: $60,800
• Rent vs Own: 49.5% rent · 50.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1525.0

Population outlook (Northampton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 312,227 people
• By 2030: 314,769 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 316,914 · +1.5%
• By 2050: 318,037 · +1.9%
• By 2075: 334,003 · +7.0%
• By 2100: 344,696 · +10.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 14% Black 10% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 19% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Danish 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 21% Chinese 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Northampton

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.6% · R 50.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.1pp toward R · 2008: 12.3pp · 2024: -1.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.8 2020: D+0.7 2016: R+3.8 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+12.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -122.95%
• Current HPI: 277.4721
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.18%
• Metro: Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Listed $340,000 GLVRMLS

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,679 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.