17186 E Trails End Rd · Spring Valley, AZ 86333

$264,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1982 0.32 ac lot Est $243k · 9% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• ARV discount +3.6/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

WOW! Look no further; this charming home with NO HOA is gorgeous, turn-key-ready, & was totally remodeled in 2023. This 1,152 sq. ft. home features 3 bedrooms & 2 bathrooms. A fantastic open-concept floorplan, a gourmet kitchen with new SS appliances, a pantry and plenty of new shaker cabinets & counter tops, a cozy large primary suite with an en-suite with a soaking tub, and a walk-in closet. The home exudes luxury and comfort with all the new upgrades: laminate flooring, paint, doors, double-pane windows, new A/C and Evap, and much more. The house is on 1/3-acre corner lot and is on an evevated pad with a block retaining wall, lush landscaping, a private fenced-in area, great for kids or pets, and RV parking. You will love this place. Located between Prescott and Phx.

Key facts

• New shaker cabinets
• New counter tops
• Soaking tub

Tags

• GOURMET KITCHEN
• NEW STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• NEW SHAKER CABINETS
• NEW COUNTER TOPS
• EN-SUITE
• SOAKING TUB

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $264k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-282 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $223k (15.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (26.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $195k (26.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#117 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: employment D+, schools D, amenities F.
• Mayer Unified School District (4473) (rural): math 23% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #165 of 249 in AZ (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 242 active listings in the ZIP; 2,062 units permitted in Yavapai County in 2024 (98 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Yavapai County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 13 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $195,194 (26.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.58%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $243,072
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13815 S Burton Rd	0.15mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,149 (-0%)	15mo	$245,000	$213	75
17536 E Trails End Rd	0.43mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,174 (+2%)	18mo	$240,000	$204	57
17272 E Apricot Ln	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,316 (+14%)	13mo	$225,000	$171	56
17124 E Fairway Dr	0.35mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,032 (-10%)	10mo	$248,000	$240	53
17217 E Fairway Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,233 (+7%)	20mo	$260,000	$211	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.70×
• Total profit: $125,824
• Equity at exit: $237,832

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.20×
• Total profit: $384,734
• Equity at exit: $512,894

Cash invested: $73,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 86333

• Home prices YoY: 17.3%
• Active inventory: 242
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,952 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,384
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$330 /mo · $3,960/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$410
• Net cashflow: $-282

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,309

Max offer price $223,135

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-100	-5% $-191	+0% $-282	+5% $-374	+10% $-465
Rent	-10% $-437	-5% $-360	+0% $-282	+5% $-205	+10% $-128
Rate	-1.0pp $-149	-0.5pp $-215	base $-282	+0.5pp $-351	+1.0pp $-420

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,000
• Closing costs: $7,920
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 45 events

1. 2025-03-20
   soldstatus $260,000
2. 2025-02-28
   soldstatus $260,000 Closed 792-char remark

   Show marketing remark (792 chars)

   WOW! Look no further; this charming home with NO HOA is gorgeous, turn-key-ready, & was totally remodeled in 2023. This 1,152 sq. ft. home features 3 bedrooms & 2 bathrooms. A fantastic open-concept floorplan, a gourmet kitchen with new SS appliances, a pantry and plenty of new shaker cabinets & counter tops, a cozy large primary suite with an en-suite with a soaking tub, and a walk-in closet. The home exudes luxury and comfort with all the new upgrades: laminate flooring, paint, doors, double-pane windows, new A/C and Evap, and much more. The house is on 1/3-acre corner lot and is on an evevated pad with a block retaining wall, lush landscaping, a private fenced-in area, great for kids or pets, and RV parking. You will love this place. Located between Prescott and Phx.

3. 2025-02-05
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (792 chars)

   WOW! Look no further; this charming home with NO HOA is gorgeous, turn-key-ready, & was totally remodeled in 2023. This 1,152 sq. ft. home features 3 bedrooms & 2 bathrooms. A fantastic open-concept floorplan, a gourmet kitchen with new SS appliances, a pantry and plenty of new shaker cabinets & counter tops, a cozy large primary suite with an en-suite with a soaking tub, and a walk-in closet. The home exudes luxury and comfort with all the new upgrades: laminate flooring, paint, doors, double-pane windows, new A/C and Evap, and much more. The house is on 1/3-acre corner lot and is on an evevated pad with a block retaining wall, lush landscaping, a private fenced-in area, great for kids or pets, and RV parking. You will love this place. Located between Prescott and Phx.

4. 2025-02-05
   historical Under Contract Accepting Backups 792-char remark

   Show marketing remark (792 chars)

   WOW! Look no further; this charming home with NO HOA is gorgeous, turn-key-ready, & was totally remodeled in 2023. This 1,152 sq. ft. home features 3 bedrooms & 2 bathrooms. A fantastic open-concept floorplan, a gourmet kitchen with new SS appliances, a pantry and plenty of new shaker cabinets & counter tops, a cozy large primary suite with an en-suite with a soaking tub, and a walk-in closet. The home exudes luxury and comfort with all the new upgrades: laminate flooring, paint, doors, double-pane windows, new A/C and Evap, and much more. The house is on 1/3-acre corner lot and is on an evevated pad with a block retaining wall, lush landscaping, a private fenced-in area, great for kids or pets, and RV parking. You will love this place. Located between Prescott and Phx.

5. 2025-02-01
   listed $264,000 Active
6. 2025-01-15
   price $264,000 792-char remark

   Show marketing remark (792 chars)

   WOW! Look no further; this charming home with NO HOA is gorgeous, turn-key-ready, & was totally remodeled in 2023. This 1,152 sq. ft. home features 3 bedrooms & 2 bathrooms. A fantastic open-concept floorplan, a gourmet kitchen with new SS appliances, a pantry and plenty of new shaker cabinets & counter tops, a cozy large primary suite with an en-suite with a soaking tub, and a walk-in closet. The home exudes luxury and comfort with all the new upgrades: laminate flooring, paint, doors, double-pane windows, new A/C and Evap, and much more. The house is on 1/3-acre corner lot and is on an evevated pad with a block retaining wall, lush landscaping, a private fenced-in area, great for kids or pets, and RV parking. You will love this place. Located between Prescott and Phx.

7. 2025-01-01
   historical
8. 2024-12-15
   price $264,500 792-char remark

   Show marketing remark (792 chars)

   WOW! Look no further; this charming home with NO HOA is gorgeous, turn-key-ready, & was totally remodeled in 2023. This 1,152 sq. ft. home features 3 bedrooms & 2 bathrooms. A fantastic open-concept floorplan, a gourmet kitchen with new SS appliances, a pantry and plenty of new shaker cabinets & counter tops, a cozy large primary suite with an en-suite with a soaking tub, and a walk-in closet. The home exudes luxury and comfort with all the new upgrades: laminate flooring, paint, doors, double-pane windows, new A/C and Evap, and much more. The house is on 1/3-acre corner lot and is on an evevated pad with a block retaining wall, lush landscaping, a private fenced-in area, great for kids or pets, and RV parking. You will love this place. Located between Prescott and Phx.

9. 2024-12-14
   listed $2,645,000 Active 792-char remark

   Show marketing remark (792 chars)

   WOW! Look no further; this charming home with NO HOA is gorgeous, turn-key-ready, & was totally remodeled in 2023. This 1,152 sq. ft. home features 3 bedrooms & 2 bathrooms. A fantastic open-concept floorplan, a gourmet kitchen with new SS appliances, a pantry and plenty of new shaker cabinets & counter tops, a cozy large primary suite with an en-suite with a soaking tub, and a walk-in closet. The home exudes luxury and comfort with all the new upgrades: laminate flooring, paint, doors, double-pane windows, new A/C and Evap, and much more. The house is on 1/3-acre corner lot and is on an evevated pad with a block retaining wall, lush landscaping, a private fenced-in area, great for kids or pets, and RV parking. You will love this place. Located between Prescott and Phx.

10. 2024-12-14
    historical

    Show marketing remark (792 chars)

    WOW! Look no further; this charming home with NO HOA is gorgeous, turn-key-ready, & was totally remodeled in 2023. This 1,152 sq. ft. home features 3 bedrooms & 2 bathrooms. A fantastic open-concept floorplan, a gourmet kitchen with new SS appliances, a pantry and plenty of new shaker cabinets & counter tops, a cozy large primary suite with an en-suite with a soaking tub, and a walk-in closet. The home exudes luxury and comfort with all the new upgrades: laminate flooring, paint, doors, double-pane windows, new A/C and Evap, and much more. The house is on 1/3-acre corner lot and is on an evevated pad with a block retaining wall, lush landscaping, a private fenced-in area, great for kids or pets, and RV parking. You will love this place. Located between Prescott and Phx.

11. 2024-11-19
    price $264,500
12. 2024-11-19
    price $264,500
13. 2024-09-05
    price $269,000
14. 2024-09-05
    price $269,000
15. 2024-08-22
    listed $275,000 Active
16. 2024-08-13
    listed $275,000 Active
17. 2024-07-31
    historical
18. 2024-06-27
    historical
19. 2024-06-04
    price $279,000
20. 2024-06-04
    price $279,000
21. 2024-04-29
    price $283,900
22. 2024-04-29
    price $283,900
23. 2024-04-08
    status Active
24. 2024-04-07
    status Active
25. 2024-04-06
    historical
26. 2024-04-01
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups
27. 2024-04-01
    historical Active Under Contract
28. 2024-03-16
    status Active
29. 2024-03-16
    status Active
30. 2024-03-07
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups
31. 2024-03-07
    historical Active Under Contract
32. 2024-02-13
    price $284,400
33. 2024-02-13
    price $284,400
34. 2023-12-15
    listed $284,900 Active
35. 2023-12-14
    listed $284,900 Active
36. 2023-12-09
    historical
37. 2023-11-15
    listed $284,900 Active
38. 2023-06-27
    soldstatus $150,400 Closed
39. 2023-06-27
    soldstatus $150,400
40. 2023-06-10
    status Active
41. 2023-06-09
    listed $149,900 Active
42. 2023-06-09
    historical
43. 2019-12-10
    soldstatus $65,000
44. 2019-12-10
    soldstatus $65,000
45. 1998-01-29
    soldstatus $51,397

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,423
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,788
• − Property taxes: −$3,960
• − Insurance: −$1,320
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,874
• − Management: −$1,874
• − Depreciation: −$7,680
• Taxable loss: −$8,073
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,937
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,452/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mayer Unified School District (4473)
• NCES district ID: 0404820
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $35,108
• Composite: 20.22/100
• National rank: #8627
• State rank: #165 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Spring Valley

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #117
• US rank: #15515

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spring Valley, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 6,425

Population outlook (Yavapai County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 241,389 people
• By 2030: 249,523 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 259,966 · +7.7%
• By 2050: 264,736 · +9.7%
• By 2075: 269,334 · +11.6%
• By 2100: 256,505 · +6.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 15% Hispanic / Latino 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Iranian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Yavapai

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.9) · D 32.6% · R 66.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.5pp toward R · 2008: -24.4pp · 2024: -33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.9 2020: R+29.3 2016: R+31.4 2012: R+30.7 2008: R+24.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 55.51%
• Current HPI: 376.0374
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+405.9% since first listed

45 events — show timeline

• 2025-03-20 Sold (Public Records) $260,000 Public Records
• 2025-02-28 Sold (MLS) $260,000 ARMLS
• 2025-02-05 Pending — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-05 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2025-02-01 Listed $264,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-15 Price Changed $264,000 ARMLS
• 2025-01-01 Listing Removed — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-15 Price Changed $264,500 ARMLS
• 2024-12-14 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2024-12-14 Listed $2,645,000 ARMLS
• 2024-11-19 Price Changed $264,500 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-19 Price Changed $264,500 ARMLS
• 2024-09-05 Price Changed $269,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-05 Price Changed $269,000 ARMLS
• 2024-08-22 Listed $275,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-13 Listed $275,000 ARMLS
• 2024-07-31 Coming Soon — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-27 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2024-06-04 Price Changed $279,000 ARMLS
• 2024-06-04 Price Changed $279,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-29 Price Changed $283,900 ARMLS
• 2024-04-29 Price Changed $283,900 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-08 Relisted — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-07 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2024-04-06 Listing Removed — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-01 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2024-04-01 Contingent — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-16 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2024-03-16 Relisted — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-07 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2024-03-07 Contingent — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-13 Price Changed $284,400 ARMLS
• 2024-02-13 Price Changed $284,400 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-12-15 Listed $284,900 ARMLS
• 2023-12-14 Listed $284,900 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-12-09 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2023-11-15 Listed $284,900 ARMLS
• 2023-06-27 Sold (Public Records) $150,400 Public Records
• 2023-06-27 Sold (MLS) $150,400 ARMLS
• 2023-06-10 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2023-06-09 Listed $149,900 ARMLS
• 2023-06-09 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2019-12-10 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 2019-12-10 Sold (MLS) $65,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1998-01-29 Sold (MLS) $51,397 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $255 · -8.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.