1251 SE Carl Pickle Dr · Port Orchard, WA 98366

$80,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured · 91 Days on market

Built 1975 Good condition $83/sqft · at area comps Est $82k · at est. ↓ 36% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.9/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this well-maintained 960 sq ft, 2-bedroom manufactured home located in the highly sought-after Orchard Bluff 55+ community. Known for its peaceful setting and strong sense of community, Orchard Bluff is a favorite among buyers looking for comfortable, low-maintenance living. Enjoy the convenience of an excellent location with easy access to Highway 16, making trips to Bremerton, Port Orchard, and surrounding areas a breeze. Grocery stores, restaurants, and fast-dining options are just minutes away, offering everyday convenience without sacrificing a quiet residential feel. This home offers a functional layout with comfortable living spaces, perfect for downsizing or simplify

Key facts

• Restaurants nearby
• Excellent location
• Built 1975

Tags

• ORCHARD BLUFF COMMUNITY
• EXCELLENT LOCATION
• EASY ACCESS TO HIGHWAY 16
• GROCERY STORES NEARBY
• RESTAURANTS NEARBY
• FAST-DINING OPTIONS NEARBY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $80k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $73k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 22.1% vs local median 3.0% in Port Orchard — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#110 in WA, #2,167 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, commute F, cost of living F.
• South Kitsap School District (suburban): math 52% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #71 of 291 in WA (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 255 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 48% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,294 units permitted in Kitsap County in 2024 (302 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kitsap County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.3% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $45k (36%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $72,800 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.55% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 56.56%
• DSCR: 3.52
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $82,500
• List price: $80,000
• Delta: -3.03%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1251 SE Carl Pickle Dr	0.00mi	2/1.5	960 (0%)	0mo	$69,500	$72	100
1260 SE Carl Pickle Dr Spc 80	0.05mi	2/2.0	891 (-7%)	2mo	$120,000	$135	82
1297 SE Carl Pickel Dr	0.13mi	3/1.5 (+1)	840 (-12%)	1mo	$82,500	$98	68
1278 SE Carl Pickel Dr	0.06mi	2/2.0	868 (-10%)	17mo	$75,000	$86	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.35% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 51.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.19×
• Total profit: $49,017
• Equity at exit: $11,928

10-year hold

• IRR: 56.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.86×
• Total profit: $108,806
• Equity at exit: $6,917

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98366

• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 255
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,036 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$100 /mo · $1,200/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
• Net cashflow: $1,056

Break-even live

Break-even rent $700

Max offer price $80,000

Occupancy floor 43%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,111	-5% $1,083	+0% $1,056	+5% $1,028	+10% $1,000
Rent	-10% $895	-5% $975	+0% $1,056	+5% $1,136	+10% $1,217
Rate	-1.0pp $1,096	-0.5pp $1,076	base $1,056	+0.5pp $1,035	+1.0pp $1,014

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2843 Harold Dr SE Unit B Port Orchard, WA	2.0	2.0	1054	$1,725	$1.64	22d	1	0.38mi
240 Poplar St Port Orchard, WA	3.0	2.0	1022	$1,995	$1.95	46d	1	0.43mi
1800 Sidney Ave Port Orchard, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	869	$1,904	$2.19	15d	13	0.49mi
1324 Garrison Ave Port Orchard, WA	2.0	1.0	864	$2,000	$2.31	22d	1	0.68mi
515 Forest Park St Port Orchard, WA	3.0	2.0	1107	$2,650	$2.39	15d	1	0.70mi
1481 SE Blueberry Rd Port Orchard, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	847	$2,295	$2.71	45d	11	0.72mi
2250 Sidney Ave Port Orchard, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0	700	$1,625	$2.32	45d	4	0.73mi
1511 SE Blueberry Rd Unit 301 Port Orchard, WA	2.0	1.5	880	$2,175	$2.47	45d	1	0.73mi
1511 SE Blueberry Rd Unit 104 Port Orchard, WA	2.0	1.0	820	$2,150	$2.62	45d	1	0.73mi
1491 SE Blueberry Rd Unit 206 Port Orchard, WA	2.0	2.0	1000	$2,195	$2.19	22d	1	0.74mi
1491 SE Blueberry Rd Unit 308 Port Orchard, WA	2.0	2.0	1000	$2,295	$2.29	15d	1	0.74mi
1501 SE Blueberry Rd Apt 106 Port Orchard, WA	2.0	1.0	820	$2,150	$2.62	45d	1	0.75mi
1501 SE Blueberry Rd Unit 108 Port Orchard, WA	2.0	1.0	820	$2,175	$2.65	45d	1	0.75mi
1501 SE Blueberry Rd Apt 305 Port Orchard, WA	2.0	1.5	930	$2,150	$2.31	45d	1	0.75mi
1501 SE Blueberry Rd Apt 107 Port Orchard, WA	2.0	1.0	930	$2,125	$2.28	45d	1	0.75mi
1501 SE Blueberry Rd Apt 307 Port Orchard, WA	2.0	1.5	930	$2,175	$2.34	45d	1	0.75mi
1329 Sherman Ave Port Orchard, WA	2.0	1.0	912	$2,100	$2.30	45d	1	0.76mi
2099 Jefferson Ave SE Port Orchard, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0	750	$1,705	$2.27	22d	4	0.88mi
502 Kendall St Port Orchard, WA	2.0	1.5	1008	$1,950	$1.93	15d	1	1.07mi
914 Taylor St E Port Orchard, WA	1.0	1.0	544	$1,750	$3.22	45d	1	1.18mi
2192 SE Sedgwick Rd Port Orchard, WA	2.0	1.0–2.0	739	$2,450	$3.31	15d	22	1.20mi
1934 Lincoln Ave SE Unit 203 Port Orchard, WA	1.0	1.0	625	$1,400	$2.24	22d	1	1.25mi
4210 Eastwood Ave SE Port Orchard, WA	3.0	2.0	1008	$2,800	$2.78	22d	1	1.28mi
4999 Sidney Rd SW Port Orchard, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	961	$2,160	$2.25	15d	21	1.34mi
3390 Starboard Ln SE Port Orchard, WA	2.0–3.0	2.0	975	$1,995	$2.05	15d	3	1.34mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-17
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-11
   price $80,000
3. 2026-05-09
   status Active
4. 2026-05-03
   status Pending
5. 2026-04-28
   status Active
6. 2026-04-24
   status Pending
7. 2026-03-17
   price $110,000
8. 2026-02-05
   listed $125,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥86°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,434
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$1,200
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,955
• − Management: −$1,955
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $12,116
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,908
• After-tax cash flow: $9,761/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained 960 sq ft manufactured home in Orchard Bluff 55+ community is ready for immediate move-in with minor cosmetic updates to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value.
• Resale Replace carpet in living areas — Fresh carpet improves aesthetics and comfort.
• Rental Clean and maintain HVAC system — Ensures comfort and reduces maintenance costs for tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value. ↑
• Resale Replace carpet in living areas — Fresh carpet improves aesthetics and comfort. ↑
• Rental Clean and maintain HVAC system — Ensures comfort and reduces maintenance costs for tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: South Kitsap School District
• NCES district ID: 5308160
• Math proficiency: 52% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $62,824
• Composite: 52.31/100
• National rank: #3445
• State rank: #71 of 291 in WA

Livability — Port Orchard

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #110
• US rank: #2167

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living F Crime D- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Port Orchard, WA
• County: Kitsap County · 243,099 people
• City population: 68,721
• Metro: Bremerton-Silverdale-Port Orchard, WA
• Population (ZIP): 36,965
• Household income: $92,011
• Rent vs Own: 30.7% rent · 69.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1031.0

Population outlook (Kitsap County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 277,525 people
• By 2030: 285,040 · +2.7%
• By 2040: 294,957 · +6.3%
• By 2050: 300,622 · +8.3%
• By 2075: 315,580 · +13.7%
• By 2100: 304,340 · +9.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 11% Asian 4% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 9% Portuguese 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kitsap

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.9) · D 58.8% · R 37.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +8.6pp toward D · 2008: 12.3pp · 2024: 20.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.9 2020: D+18.1 2016: D+11.6 2012: D+11.1 2008: D+12.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -432.79%
• Current HPI: 354.2856
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.35%
• Metro: Bremerton-Silverdale-Port Orchard, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-36.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $80,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-09 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-03 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-28 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-24 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $110,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-05 Listed $125,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid