166 Ash St · Perezville, TX 78572

$49,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 504 sqft · Manufactured public records · 93 Days on market

Built 1978 1,799 sqft lot $99/sqft · 8% above area Est $49k · at est. $33/mo HOA · 3% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +6.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come experience everything Restful Valley Ranch, a 55+ gated community, has to offer! With a low homeowners association fee of just $400 per year, residents enjoy access to an outdoor pool, shuffleboard, and a variety of community activities—all conveniently located near Howling Trails Golf Course. This charming 1-bedroom, 1-bathroom home features a front living room with an open-concept layout, creating a comfortable and welcoming space. The home comes furnished and includes several recent updates, such as a new mini-split system to keep you cool year-round and upgraded electrical from the exterior box to the control panel. The refrigerator and stove were also updated a few years ago. Step outside to enjoy the front patio, a handy storage shed, and a low-maintenance rock yard—perfect for easy living. Don’t miss out—schedule your private showing today!

Key facts

• Outdoor pool
• Front patio
• Storage shed

Tags

• OUTDOOR POOL
• SHUFFLEBOARD
• FRONT PATIO
• STORAGE SHED
• LOW MAINTENANCE ROCK YARD
• NEW MINI-SPLIT SYSTEM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $410 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($969 rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $45k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.2% vs local median 6.9% in Perezville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#743 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• La Joya ISD (suburban): math 18% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #759 of 826 in TX (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 852 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $345 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.9% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($45k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $10k; list at $50k implies a 399% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 94% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $45,409 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.94% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.22%
• DSCR: 2.57
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $48,815
• List price: $49,900
• Delta: 2.22%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
705 Pine Ave	0.13mi	1/1.0 (-1)	560 (+11%)	6mo	$49,900	$89	65
109 Ash St	0.15mi	1/1.0 (-1)	560 (+11%)	14mo	$59,000	$105	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.93% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.15×
• Total profit: $16,073
• Equity at exit: $7,440

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.86×
• Total profit: $39,928
• Equity at exit: $4,314

Cash invested: $13,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78572

• Home prices YoY: -22.9%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 852
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $969 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$40 /mo · $476/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$203
• Net cashflow: $410

Break-even live

Break-even rent $450

Max offer price $49,900

Occupancy floor 53%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,475
• Closing costs: $1,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
109 Ash St Mission, TX	1.0	1.0	560	$800	$1.43	43d	1	0.14mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr
• Likely covers: electricpoolsecurity

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $49,900 Active 93 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $49,900 Active 92 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $49,900 Active 91 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,900 Active 90 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $49,900 Active 88 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $49,900 Active 87 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $49,900 Active 85 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $49,900 Active 84 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $49,900 Active 83 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $49,900 Active 82 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $49,900 Active 79 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $49,900 Active 78 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $49,900 Active 77 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $49,900 Active 76 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,900 Active 75 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,900 Active 74 DOM
17. 2026-03-17
    listed $49,900 Active 890-char remark

    Show marketing remark (890 chars)

    Come experience everything Restful Valley Ranch, a 55+ gated community, has to offer! With a low homeowners association fee of just $400 per year, residents enjoy access to an outdoor pool, shuffleboard, and a variety of community activities—all conveniently located near Howling Trails Golf Course. This charming 1-bedroom, 1-bathroom home features a front living room with an open-concept layout, creating a comfortable and welcoming space. The home comes furnished and includes several recent updates, such as a new mini-split system to keep you cool year-round and upgraded electrical from the exterior box to the control panel. The refrigerator and stove were also updated a few years ago. Step outside to enjoy the front patio, a handy storage shed, and a low-maintenance rock yard—perfect for easy living. Don’t miss out—schedule your private showing today!

18. 2023-05-08
    soldstatus
19. 2005-03-28
    soldstatus
20. 1994-03-30
    soldstatus $10,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $476 · $40/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $913 · $76/mo
• Expected delta: +$437/yr (+$36/mo · 91.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 94% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,623
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,795
• − Property taxes: −$476
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$930
• − Management: −$930
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$1,452
• Taxable income: $4,395
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,055
• After-tax cash flow: $3,866/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: La Joya ISD
• NCES district ID: 4826130
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -35.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $27,845
• Composite: 18.65/100
• National rank: #8891
• State rank: #759 of 826 in TX

Livability — Perezville

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #743
• US rank: #13748

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Perezville, TX
• County: Hidalgo County · 623,128 people
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• Population (ZIP): 78,024
• Household income: $54,298
• Rent vs Own: 29.0% rent · 71.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1714.0

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 85% Two or more races 47% White 12% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 80%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Portuguese 0%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 22% English-only · Spanish 76%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -62.35%
• Current HPI: 209.3573
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.93%
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+399.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-17 Listed $49,900 MCALLENMLS
• 2023-05-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-03-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1994-03-30 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $476 · +16.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.