17 Johnston Rd · Orchard Hill, GA 30224

$99,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,032 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1928 Est $193k · 49% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

SE Spalding County and within good school districts. 3br/1ba wood siding home built around 1960. .37 acre shady lot. Interior and exterior paint in pretty good shape. Living room with fireplace. Front porch and 1 car parking shed.

Key facts

• Built 1928
• Listed 9 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area approximately 1101; Lot size approximately 0.37 acres

Exterior

• Home design: Built in 1928; Located in Orchard Hill subdivision; Facing direction not provided
• Construction: Originally built in 1928
• Exterior features: Deck; Porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Flooring: Tile
• Interior features: Tile flooring; Deck; Porch

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $711 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $99k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#497 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Griffin-Spalding County (suburban): math 13% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #151 of 174 in GA (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 233 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 342 units permitted in Spalding County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Spalding County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.4% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $22k; list at $99k implies a 340% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1928 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 44% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $99,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1928 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.71% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.78%
• DSCR: 2.37
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $192,984
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2173 S Mcdonough Rd	0.15mi	2/2.0	1,176 (+14%)	5mo	$205,000	$174	62
57 Swint Rd	0.18mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,100 (+7%)	21mo	$213,000	$194	54
359 Swint Rd	0.58mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,066 (+3%)	22mo	$199,000	$187	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.96×
• Total profit: $26,582
• Equity at exit: $14,761

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.56×
• Total profit: $70,894
• Equity at exit: $8,560

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30224

• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 233
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,690 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$63 /mo · $761/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$355
• Net cashflow: $711

Break-even live

Break-even rent $790

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 53%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1903 Futral Rd Griffin, GA	3.0	1.0	1025	$1,800	$1.76	1d	1	1.11mi
29 Holly Grove Rd Griffin, GA	3.0	2.0	1056	$1,700	$1.61	43d	1	1.23mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,000 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   remarks 83-char remark
7. 2026-06-10
   listed $99,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $761 · $63/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $911 · $76/mo
• Expected delta: +$150/yr (+$13/mo · 19.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 44% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,275
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$761
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,622
• − Management: −$1,622
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $7,350
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,764
• After-tax cash flow: $6,767/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Griffin-Spalding County
• NCES district ID: 1302520
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $40,895
• Composite: 13.71/100
• National rank: #9496
• State rank: #151 of 174 in GA

Livability — Orchard Hill

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #497
• US rank: #22660

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Orchard Hill, GA
• County: Spalding County · 66,676 people
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 28,414
• Household income: $70,216
• Rent vs Own: 34.1% rent · 65.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 735.0

Population outlook (Spalding County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,015 people
• By 2030: 61,689 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 57,932 · -8.1%
• By 2050: 53,474 · -15.1%
• By 2075: 43,228 · -31.4%
• By 2100: 32,290 · -48.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 31% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Spalding

• 2024 margin: R (+16.7) · D 41.4% · R 58.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.1pp toward D · 2008: -18.8pp · 2024: -16.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.7 2020: R+20.8 2016: R+24.2 2012: R+20.0 2008: R+18.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -181.83%
• Current HPI: 232.3039
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.42%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+150.6% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $99,000 FSBO.com
• 2015-10-31 Price Changed $22,500 GAMLS
• 2015-10-16 Sold (MLS) $22,500 GAMLS
• 2015-09-29 Pending — GAMLS
• 2015-09-29 Price Changed $24,900 GAMLS
• 2015-09-16 Price Changed $24,900 GAMLS
• 2015-09-02 Price Changed $29,900 GAMLS
• 2015-08-18 Price Changed $34,900 GAMLS
• 2015-07-16 Listed $39,900 GAMLS
• 2002-03-25 Sold (Public Records) $49,900 Public Records
• 2000-03-20 Sold (Public Records) $39,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $761 · -1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.