1521 Ar 69b Hwy · Melbourne, AR 72573

$10,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1970 6,098 sqft lot $10/sqft · 93% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This is the kind of “small box” rural straightforward rehab that can pencil with the right basis: modest square footage, simple layout, and very low reported taxes help keep carrying costs down. With a clean-up/refresh and a tight scope rehab, the property targets a workforce-tenant profile in the Melbourne/Sage area—then you can choose your exit: stabilize as a long-term rental, refinance after seasoning, or resell once brought to market standards.

Key facts

• 6,098 sq ft lot
• Built 1970
• Listed 23 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Annual HOA frequency

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Municipal electric service (Entergy)
• Home design: Wood exterior
• Construction: Metal roof; Crawl space foundation; Wood construction; Built on approximately 0.14 acre lot
• Exterior features: Level lot; Not in a subdivision; Inside city limits; Paved road access

Interior

• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: No cooling system
• Interior features: Carpet and vinyl flooring

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $10,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$148,353) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $10k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $604 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($855 rent vs $10k).
• Recommended offer: $10k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 78.8% vs local median 3.1% in Melbourne — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#127 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Melbourne School District (rural): math 48% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #22 of 238 in AR (top 9%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Izard County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $369 of equity ($69 loan paydown + $300 appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Izard County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $3k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($10k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $8k; 25% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $9,850 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 8.55% ✓
• Cap rate: 78.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 258.79%
• DSCR: 12.51
• GRM: 1.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $148,353
• List price: $10,000
• Delta: -93.26%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 15.17×
• Total profit: $39,678
• Equity at exit: $4,496

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 32.20×
• Total profit: $87,372
• Equity at exit: $6,930

Cash invested: $2,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72573

• Active inventory: 6
• Price-to-rent: 1.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $855 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$52
• Tax from tax record: −$15 /mo · $178/yr
• Insurance: −$4
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$180
• Net cashflow: $604

Break-even live

Break-even rent $90

Max offer price $10,000

Occupancy floor 24%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $2,500
• Closing costs: $300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-01
   status $10,000 Under Contract 23 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $10,000 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-05-30
   days on market $10,000 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-05-03
   listed $10,000 New Listing 471-char remark
5. 2015-01-13
   soldstatus $8,000
6. 2003-10-31
   soldstatus $9,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $178 · $15/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $178 · $15/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,258
• − Mortgage interest: −$560
• − Property taxes: −$178
• − Insurance: −$50
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$821
• − Management: −$821
• − Depreciation: −$291
• Taxable income: $7,537
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,809
• After-tax cash flow: $5,437/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Melbourne School District
• NCES district ID: 0509720
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $37,534
• Composite: 41.18/100
• National rank: #3548
• State rank: #22 of 238 in AR

Livability — Melbourne

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #127
• US rank: #11858

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 460

Population outlook (Izard County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,018 people
• By 2030: 12,761 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 12,331 · -5.3%
• By 2050: 12,041 · -7.5%
• By 2075: 11,516 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 10,549 · -19.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (100%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 100%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Izard

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.9) · D 16.0% · R 81.9% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -39.1pp toward R · 2008: -26.9pp · 2024: -65.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.9 2020: R+62.1 2016: R+54.3 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+26.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+11.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Pending — CARMLS
• 2026-05-03 Listed $10,000 CARMLS
• 2015-01-13 Sold (Public Records) $8,000 Public Records
• 2003-10-31 Sold (Public Records) $9,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $178 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.