510 Neighborhood Rd · Mastic Beach, NY 11967

$499,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · SingleFamily · 27 Days on market

Built 2026 6,500 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

New Construction, Opportunity Knocks, Affordable Quality Diamond Home. Welcome to this Expanded Cape, much larger than it appears, approx. 1500sqft. All brand new from roof to basement, open floor plan, large kitchen with granite and stainless steel appliances. Hi hat lighting, large Family room & Dining Room with sliders to large inviting back yard. Laundry and pantry room next to the Kitchen. Large bedroom on lower level can be used as 2nd Primary Bedroom. Primary Bedroom upstairs has two closets, plus another nice size Bedroom. Two Full Baths with subway tile. Home is equipped with 5 efficient split systems distributing air conditioning and heating. Full basement with 9 ft ceiling,

Key facts

• Large family room
• Two closets
• Large kitchen

Tags

• LARGE KITCHEN
• LARGE FAMILY ROOM
• INVITING BACK YARD
• LAUNDRY AND PANTRY ROOM
• TWO CLOSETS
• SUBWAY TILE

🏗️ New construction. The $499,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $531,000.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $500k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-416 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $471k (5.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $412k (17.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $412k (17.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#936 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• William Floyd Union Free School District (suburban): math 48% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #309 of 590 in NY (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: William Floyd Elementary School (math 48% / reading 54%, grade C-, #1,047 of 2,108 statewide, top 50%, 742 students, 54% FRL); William Floyd Middle School (math 36% / reading 47%, grade F, #394 of 729 statewide, top 55%, 1,053 students, 54% FRL); William Floyd High School (math 65% / reading 87%, grade A-, #616 of 1,100 statewide, top 57%, 3,013 students, 54% FRL).
• Market conditions: 183 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($492k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $411,857 (17.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.35%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.36%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $531,000
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
514 Neighborhood Rd	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-7%)	2mo	$549,990	$393	87
61 Arpage Dr E	0.34mi	3/1.5	1,500 (0%)	2mo	$580,000	$387	81
74 Alcolade Dr E	0.40mi	3/1.5	1,440 (-4%)	2mo	$431,000	$299	71
19 Birchwood Dr	0.18mi	3/2.5	1,678 (+12%)	3mo	$530,000	$316	67
6 Lafayette Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,500 (0%)	5mo	$572,000	$381	64
9 Brushwood Dr	0.36mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,400 (-7%)	4mo	$495,000	$354	64
21 Pennwood Dr	0.46mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,456 (-3%)	7mo	$530,000	$364	62
26 Arpage Dr E	0.35mi	3/1.5	1,391 (-7%)	9mo	$520,000	$374	62
6 Victoria Pl	0.72mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,470 (-2%)	4mo	$470,000	$320	55
193 Laurelton Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,349 (-10%)	5mo	$465,000	$345	55
2 Lafayette Dr	0.68mi	3/1.5	1,334 (-11%)	2mo	$400,000	$300	46
99 Lynbrook Dr	0.59mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,357 (-10%)	7mo	$375,000	$276	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-112,475
• Equity at exit: $79,174

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-131,801
• Equity at exit: $45,911

Cash invested: $148,680 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11967

• Home prices YoY: -33.1%
• Active inventory: 183
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,119 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,785
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$664 /mo · $7,965/yr
• Insurance: −$221
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$865
• Net cashflow: $-416

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,645

Max offer price $470,811

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $132,750
• Closing costs: $15,930
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
126 Flower Rd Shirley, NY	4.0	1.0	1756	$4,100	$2.33	1d	1	0.20mi
165 Lynbrook Dr Mastic Beach, NY	3.0	2.0	1520	$4,000	$2.63	1d	1	0.34mi
6 Fairview Dr Shirley, NY	4.0	2.0	1302	$4,299	$3.30	2d	1	0.58mi
126 Trafalgar Dr Shirley, NY	3.0	2.5	2100	$4,500	$2.14	1d	1	0.93mi
44 Pine Tree Dr Shirley, NY	4.0	2.0	1600	$4,200	$2.62	1d	1	0.94mi
192 Cypress Dr Mastic Beach, NY	4.0	2.0	1404	$3,800	$2.71	43d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-02-06
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-09
   listed $499,999 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $49,423
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,744
• − Property taxes: −$7,965
• − Insurance: −$2,655
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,954
• − Management: −$3,954
• − Depreciation: −$15,447
• Taxable loss: −$14,296
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,431
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,560/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: William Floyd Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3618690
• Math proficiency: 48% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $70,564
• Composite: 46.79/100
• National rank: #2383
• State rank: #309 of 590 in NY

Livability — Mastic Beach

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #936
• US rank: #18216

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mastic Beach, NY
• City population: 15,830
• Population (ZIP): 27,266

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 25% Black 9% Two or more races 8% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 10% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -212.21%
• Current HPI: 428.8362
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-06 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-09 Listed $499,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid