3801 Lake Bayshore Dr Unit H413 · South Bradenton, FL 34205

$80,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 912 sqft · Condo · 30 Days on market

Built 1979 $563/mo HOA · 38% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.2/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great updates in this lake-front 2BR/1BA condo. Brand new A/C system. New carpeting, New range & microwave. The place practically sparkles. Move right in now. Active 55+ community. Desirable H-bldg with its excellent lake & pool & clubhouse views make this one appealing. East-southeast exposure on lanai brings wonderful morning sunlight & mild afternoons. Enjoy scheduled events from clubhouse, relaxing around the pool, shuffleboard tournaments. Very cost-effective life style available here. Just minutes to the beautiful Anna Maria Island beaches. .. AMAZING price now, come check this out.

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• Lake views
• Near shopping

Tags

• LAKE VIEWS
• SCREENED LANAI
• CLUBHOUSE
• POOL
• WALKING PATHS
• NEAR SHOPPING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Partially furnished; Unit living area (public records): 912 square feet; Building area total: 1,104 square feet; Zoning: PDR
• Financial info: Total monthly condo/HOA fees: $563; Total annual association fees: $6,756; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Monthly condo fee: $563 (includes pool and recreational facilities); Association approval required; Association fee paid monthly; Association name: Cori Hansen; Community features: Clubhouse, Pool; Senior community; No pets allowed

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Water connected; Sewer available
• Home design: Condominium; Residential property; Located on 4th floor; Faces northwest; One level unit; Total stories in building: 5; Lake view
• Construction: Concrete and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Building name/number: H 413; Built as part of a 5-story building
• Exterior features: Balcony; Sidewalk

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in oven; Cooktop; Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Elevator in building; Sliding doors; Balcony; Common area laundry
• Laundry & utility: Common area laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $42 ($505/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 4.1% in South Bradenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in FL, #3,092 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, crime D+, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Robert H. Prine Elementary School (math 46% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,560 of 2,144 statewide, top 73%, 744 students, 75% FRL); W. D. Sugg Middle School (math 34% / reading 28%, grade F, #462 of 571 statewide, top 81%, 1,010 students, 72% FRL); Bayshore High School (math 17% / reading 26%, grade F, #546 of 667 statewide, top 82%, 1,435 students, 65% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 51% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 30% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-22 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Manatee average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.4%/yr); 321 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $80k implies a 130% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 38% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→32/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $78,800 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
8. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
9. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.83% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.25%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-14,212
• Equity at exit: $11,928

10-year hold

• IRR: -37.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.07×
• Total profit: $-24,030
• Equity at exit: $6,917

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34205

• Rents YoY: -2.4%
• Active inventory: 321
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,466 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$100 /mo · $1,200/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$563
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$308
• Net cashflow: $42

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,412

Max offer price $80,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $97	-5% $70	+0% $42	+5% $14	+10% $-13
Rent	-10% $-74	-5% $-16	+0% $42	+5% $100	+10% $158
Rate	-1.0pp $82	-0.5pp $62	base $42	+0.5pp $21	+1.0pp $0

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4109 Lake Bayshore Dr Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	768	$1,250	$1.63	25d	1	0.02mi
3737 Lake Bayshore Dr Unit 213 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	912	$1,150	$1.26	23d	1	0.02mi
3963 Lake Bayshore Dr Unit F-414 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	1040	$1,200	$1.15	16d	1	0.02mi
4204 Heron Way Unit B304 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	912	$1,400	$1.54	5d	1	0.20mi
2306 30th Ave W Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	945	$1,700	$1.80	25d	1	0.40mi
2901 26th St W #807 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	940	$1,525	$1.62	4d	1	0.47mi
3506 14th St W Bradenton, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	874	$1,725	$1.97	25d	5	0.49mi
4515 26th St W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	806	$1,510	$1.87	3d	14	0.52mi
2305 46th Ave W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1005	$1,837	$1.83	3d	10	0.60mi
4444 17th St W Unit B Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$2,200	$2.59	25d	1	0.61mi
1308 36th Ave W Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	715	$1,199	$1.68	25d	1	0.64mi
2201 24th Ave W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1115	$1,950	$1.75	25d	1	0.71mi
4705 27th St W Unit A Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,325	$1.77	4d	1	0.79mi
919 34th Ave W Bradenton, FL	3.0	1.0	950	$1,599	$1.68	13d	1	0.81mi
2205 20th St W Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	810	$1,850	$2.28	13d	1	0.84mi
907 34th Ave W Unit B Bradenton, FL	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,795	$1.79	25d	1	0.84mi
907 34th Ave W Bradenton, FL	3.0	1.0	985	$1,599	$1.62	21d	1	0.84mi
2315 17th Street Ln W Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	528	$1,200	$2.27	25d	1	0.84mi
2403 21st Ave W Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	600	$1,400	$2.33	25d	1	0.88mi
4812 27th St W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	912	$1,599	$1.75	13d	1	0.91mi
4812 27th St W Unit 4812 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	912	$1,545	$1.69	13d	1	0.91mi
2004 49th Ave W Unit 2002 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1021	$1,950	$1.91	25d	1	0.94mi
4906 21st St W Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	918	$1,700	$1.85	17d	1	0.95mi
2002 20th St W Unit B Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	600	$1,000	$1.67	17d	1	0.97mi
4906 25th St W #101 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.5	1070	$1,550	$1.45	25d	1	0.97mi
2409 13th St W Apt 2 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	770	$1,175	$1.53	25d	1	0.97mi
2422 11th St W Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,445	$1.61	25d	1	1.00mi
2835 50th Ave W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	850	$1,610	$1.89	5d	16	1.00mi
5001 22nd St W Unit B Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	729	$1,700	$2.33	17d	1	1.01mi
2127 13th St W Unit B Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	700	$1,149	$1.64	25d	1	1.06mi
1912 19th Ave W Unit 1912 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,395	$1.74	25d	1	1.06mi
4325 40th St W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	775	$1,675	$2.16	12d	9	1.06mi
505 30th Ave W Unit E406 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1001	$1,450	$1.45	25d	1	1.10mi
2244 9th St W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	768	$1,323	$1.72	25d	4	1.13mi
515 30th Ave W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1001	$1,375	$1.37	17d	2	1.13mi
2117 11th St W Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	850	$1,295	$1.52	25d	1	1.13mi
5059 Live Oak Cir Unit 5059 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	896	$1,900	$2.12	17d	1	1.14mi
390 301 Blvd W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1125	$1,495	$1.33	25d	1	1.14mi
2017 12th St W Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	720	$1,300	$1.81	25d	1	1.14mi
1505 18th Avenue Dr W Bradenton, FL	3.0	1.0	886	$1,875	$2.12	17d	1	1.15mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $563 · $6,756/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $80,000 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $80,000 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $80,000 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $80,000 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $80,000 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $80,000 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $80,000 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $80,000 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $80,000 Active 18 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $80,000 Active 17 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $80,000 Active 16 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $80,000 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $80,000 Active 11 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $80,000 Active 10 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $80,000 Active 9 DOM
16. 2026-05-22
    listed $80,000 Active
17. 2025-11-14
    historical
18. 2025-10-06
    price $119,900
19. 2025-06-05
    price $105,000
20. 2025-05-23
    listed $110,000 Active
21. 2013-01-03
    soldstatus $34,800 619-char remark

    Show marketing remark (619 chars)

    Great updates in this lake-front 2BR/1BA condo. Brand new A/C system. New carpeting, New range & microwave. The place practically sparkles. Move right in now. Active 55+ community. Desirable H-bldg with its excellent lake & pool & clubhouse views make this one appealing. East-southeast exposure on lanai brings wonderful morning sunlight & mild afternoons. Enjoy scheduled events from clubhouse, relaxing around the pool, shuffleboard tournaments. Very cost-effective life style available here. Just minutes to the beautiful Anna Maria Island beaches. .. AMAZING price now, come check this out.

22. 2012-06-07
    listed $34,800 619-char remark

    Show marketing remark (619 chars)

    Great updates in this lake-front 2BR/1BA condo. Brand new A/C system. New carpeting, New range & microwave. The place practically sparkles. Move right in now. Active 55+ community. Desirable H-bldg with its excellent lake & pool & clubhouse views make this one appealing. East-southeast exposure on lanai brings wonderful morning sunlight & mild afternoons. Enjoy scheduled events from clubhouse, relaxing around the pool, shuffleboard tournaments. Very cost-effective life style available here. Just minutes to the beautiful Anna Maria Island beaches. .. AMAZING price now, come check this out.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 32 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,589
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$1,200
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,407
• − Management: −$1,407
• − HOA: −$6,756
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable loss: −$390
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$94
• After-tax cash flow: $598/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — South Bradenton

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3092

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: South Bradenton, FL
• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,946
• Household income: $52,525
• Rent vs Own: 40.3% rent · 59.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1736.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 18% Black 10% Two or more races 9% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 14% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -310.18%
• Current HPI: 369.8239
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.43%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+129.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $80,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-14 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-06 Price Changed $119,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-05 Price Changed $105,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-23 Listed $110,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-01-03 Sold (MLS) $34,800 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-06-07 Listed $34,800 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid