728 Autumn Cherry Trl · Magnolia, TX 77354

$235,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,188 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 2023 5,898 sqft lot Est $222k · 6% over $48/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.8/30.0
• ARV discount +4.9/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks

Better than new and move-in ready, this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers an open-concept layout with thoughtful upgrades throughout. The kitchen features added cabinet hardware, upgraded faucets, and a custom floor-to-ceiling built-in cabinet that serves as a second pantry. Additional floor-to-ceiling cabinetry and upgraded faucets in the secondary bath provide exceptional storage and style. Upgrades include remote-control window treatments, garage door opener, and added attic flooring for extra storage. Outside, enjoy a fully landscaped yard with added trees, rain gutters, sprinkler system, rear gate access, side-yard pavers, and an extended covered patio with ceiling f

Key facts

• Sprinkler system
• Rear gate access
• Open-concept layout

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• FULLY LANDSCAPED YARD
• EXTENDED COVERED PATIO
• REAR GATE ACCESS
• SPRINKLER SYSTEM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area approximately 1,188
• HOA & community: Magnolia Ridge HOA; Annual association fee of $575 covering common areas

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener (2 spaces)
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story (first-floor living); Slab foundation; Composition roof; Built in 2023
• Construction: Brick and cement siding construction
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Deck; Porch; Patio; Private fenced yard with backyard fence; Sprinkler/irrigation; Subdivision lot with side yard; Concrete road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Gas cooktop; Garbage disposal; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (15 x 12); Bedroom on first floor (15 x 9); Bedroom on first floor (15 x 9)
• Flooring: Plank flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: High ceilings; Breakfast bar; Kitchen island; Pantry; Quartz counters; Tub with shower; Window treatments; Ceiling fans; Combined living/dining area
• Laundry & utility: Utility room (6 x 5) on first floor; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-362 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $171k (27.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (19.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $171k (27.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 3.4% in Magnolia — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Willie E Williams El (math 46% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,269 of 4,322 statewide, top 30%, 869 students, 70% FRL); Magnolia J H (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #805 of 1,662 statewide, top 50%, 1,103 students, 57% FRL); Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1622 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $170,992 (27.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.44%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.61%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $222,156
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
744 Autumn Cherry Trl	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,276 (+7%)	4mo	$225,000	$176	82
434 Southern Magnolia Way	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,273 (+7%)	1mo	$240,990	$189	78
710 Umbrella Tree Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,273 (+7%)	1mo	$237,990	$187	78
406 Southern Magnolia Way	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,311 (+10%)	5mo	$240,990	$184	71
723 Umbrella Tree Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,311 (+10%)	2mo	$239,990	$183	70
519 Southern Magnolia Way	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,311 (+10%)	3mo	$239,990	$183	64
302 Bandit Cove Ct	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,269 (+7%)	5mo	$255,990	$202	63
915 Songbird Ln	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,311 (+10%)	2mo	$237,990	$182	62
407 Rosebank Rnch	0.45mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,319 (+11%)	1mo	$237,000	$180	55
540 Flower Reed Ct	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,330 (+12%)	2mo	$255,990	$192	55
543 Flower Reed Ct	0.52mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,100 (-7%)	0mo	$222,990	$203	54
213 Azalea Meadow Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,330 (+12%)	5mo	$272,990	$205	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.52×
• Total profit: $100,090
• Equity at exit: $211,707

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.62×
• Total profit: $304,180
• Equity at exit: $456,553

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1622
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,903 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$487 /mo · $5,845/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$48
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$400
• Net cashflow: $-362

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,361

Max offer price $170,992

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-229	-5% $-296	+0% $-362	+5% $-429	+10% $-495
Rent	-10% $-513	-5% $-437	+0% $-362	+5% $-287	+10% $-212
Rate	-1.0pp $-244	-0.5pp $-303	base $-362	+0.5pp $-423	+1.0pp $-485

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
423 Jewett Meadow Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1311	$1,781	$1.36	24d	1	0.26mi
359 Cumberland Forest Dr Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	1459	$1,725	$1.18	26d	1	0.46mi
937 Gentle Moss Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1252	$1,635	$1.31	7d	1	0.47mi
408 Cumberland Forest Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,795	$1.28	45d	1	0.51mi
948 Oak Mist Ln Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1470	$2,000	$1.36	26d	1	0.52mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $48 · $576/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-21
   remarks 699-char remark
2. 2026-06-21
   listed $235,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,845 · $487/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,845 · $487/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,830
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$5,845
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,826
• − Management: −$1,826
• − HOA: −$576
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable loss: −$8,418
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,020
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,328/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Magnolia, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 106,505
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-19 Listed $235,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+146.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,845 · +411.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.