Timms Plan · Uhland, TX 78640

$204,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · SingleFamily · 122 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This convenient single-story plan opens to three secondary bedrooms framing the entryway. Down the hall, an open peninsula-style kitchen overlooks an inviting dining area and a spacious family room, ideal for seamless modern living. The owner's suite is ideally situated in the back corner to provide a serene retreat, featuring a bedroom, attached bathroom and a walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Attached bathroom
• Inviting dining area
• Single-story plan

Tags

• SINGLE-STORY PLAN
• OPEN PENINSULA-STYLE KITCHEN
• INVITING DINING AREA
• SPACIOUS FAMILY ROOM
• OWNER'S SUITE
• ATTACHED BATHROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $204,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $244,520.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $205k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-146 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (4.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $180k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#1,385 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: employment C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Hays CISD (rural): math 35% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #390 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 1801 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 122 days — a 12% lower offer ($180k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $180,399 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 122 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.55%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $244,520
• List price: $204,999
• Delta: -16.16%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
114 Whoopers Loop	0.15mi	4/2.0	1,616 (+8%)	0mo	$225,000	$139	80
135 Orange Flame Blvd	0.48mi	4/2.0	1,485 (-1%)	1mo	$231,990	$156	75
151 Pink Footed Pass	0.47mi	4/2.0	1,483 (-1%)	2mo	$219,490	$148	75
263 Speckled Belly Bnd	0.34mi	4/2.0	1,600 (+7%)	1mo	$232,999	$146	72
132 Celosia Loop	0.55mi	4/2.0	1,485 (-1%)	3mo	$249,990	$168	71
697 Whoopers Loop	0.37mi	4/2.0	1,600 (+7%)	2mo	$229,499	$143	70
168 Speckled Belly Bnd	0.28mi	4/2.0	1,667 (+11%)	2mo	$235,990	$142	67
136 Speckled Belly Bnd	0.28mi	4/2.0	1,667 (+11%)	2mo	$234,990	$141	66
707 Whoopers Loop	0.37mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,411 (-6%)	2mo	$226,990	$161	66
643 Whoopers Loop	0.37mi	4/2.0	1,707 (+14%)	1mo	$236,990	$139	59
143 Pink Footed Pass	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,354 (-10%)	1mo	$207,490	$153	56
127 Orange Flame Blvd	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,329 (-11%)	1mo	$219,990	$166	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-54,604
• Equity at exit: $36,459

10-year hold

• IRR: -30.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.19×
• Total profit: $-81,517
• Equity at exit: $21,142

Cash invested: $68,466 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78640

• Home prices YoY: -33.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 1801
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,955 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,282
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$306 /mo · $3,668/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$410
• Net cashflow: $-146

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,139

Max offer price $223,431

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,130
• Closing costs: $7,336
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
787 Arnold Loop , TX	3.0	2.5	1840	$2,300	$1.25	2d	1	0.30mi
263 Speckled Belly Bnd Uhland, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,650	$1.03	16d	1	0.38mi
177 Pink Footed Pass Uhland, TX	4.0	2.0	1483	$1,525	$1.03	44d	1	0.50mi
177 Pink Footed Pass Uhland, TX	4.0	2.0	1483	$1,525	$1.03	24d	1	0.50mi
151 Pink Footed Pass Uhland, TX	4.0	2.0	1483	$1,600	$1.08	24d	1	0.50mi
129 Pineland Ave Niederwald, TX	3.0	2.0	1460	$1,414	$0.97	13d	1	0.80mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $204,999 Active 122 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $204,999 Active 121 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $231,999 Active 120 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $231,999 Active 119 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $231,999 Active 117 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $231,999 Active 113 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $231,999 Active 112 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $231,999 Active 111 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $231,999 Active 108 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $231,999 Active 107 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $231,999 Active 106 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $231,999 Active 105 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $231,999 Active 104 DOM
14. 2026-03-31
    price $231,999 379-char remark

    Show marketing remark (379 chars)

    This convenient single-story plan opens to three secondary bedrooms framing the entryway. Down the hall, an open peninsula-style kitchen overlooks an inviting dining area and a spacious family room, ideal for seamless modern living. The owner's suite is ideally situated in the back corner to provide a serene retreat, featuring a bedroom, attached bathroom and a walk-in closet.

15. 2026-02-16
    listed $231,490 Active 379-char remark

    Show marketing remark (379 chars)

    This convenient single-story plan opens to three secondary bedrooms framing the entryway. Down the hall, an open peninsula-style kitchen overlooks an inviting dining area and a spacious family room, ideal for seamless modern living. The owner's suite is ideally situated in the back corner to provide a serene retreat, featuring a bedroom, attached bathroom and a walk-in closet.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,454
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,697
• − Property taxes: −$3,668
• − Insurance: −$1,223
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,876
• − Management: −$1,876
• − Depreciation: −$7,113
• Taxable loss: −$5,999
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,440
• After-tax cash flow: $-309/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-story home is in good condition with a good exterior and interior. It has a good curb appeal and is move-in ready. The kitchen and bathrooms could benefit from some updates to increase their value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Resale Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Rental Kitchen appliances — Modern appliances attract renters
• Rental Bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures attract renters

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Resale Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Rental Kitchen appliances — Modern appliances attract renters ↑
• Rental Bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures attract renters ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hays CISD
• NCES district ID: 4800010
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,570
• Composite: 34.78/100
• National rank: #5118
• State rank: #390 of 826 in TX

Livability — Uhland

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #1385
• US rank: #23774

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Uhland, TX
• County: Hays County · 280,138 people
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 77,531
• Household income: $90,075
• Rent vs Own: 29.0% rent · 71.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2552.0

Population outlook (Hays County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,948 people
• By 2030: 336,923 · +17.4%
• By 2040: 441,894 · +54.0%
• By 2050: 553,462 · +92.9%
• By 2075: 838,261 · +192.1%
• By 2100: 1,063,658 · +270.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 36% Two or more races 29% Black 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 47% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 35%

Political lean MEDSL · Hays

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.7) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.7pp toward D · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: 5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.7 2020: D+10.8 2016: R+0.9 2012: R+10.4 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.64%
• Current HPI: 181.7969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.34%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $231,999 Zillow
• 2026-02-16 Listed $231,490 Zillow