1315 Pepper Dr #90 · Bostonia, CA 92021

$278,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured public records · 72 Days on market

Built 2026 Est $203k · 37% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This soft palette home, in a well maintained family park, offers the rustic charm of board & batten, 9' ceilings, custom laminate flooring throughout and upgraded carpeting in bedrooms. The kitchen offers an upgraded package that includes stainless steel: dishwasher, self-cleaning gas range, stainless single bowl sink, microwave, side-by-side refrigerator w/ water & ice dispenser. Kitchen also offers LED recessed lighting, upgraded spring faucet, full tiled backsplash. Throughout it offers: Upgraded 5-1/4 baseboard molding, soft close cabinet doors, 6 panel interior doors w/ lever handles, & black hardware. Ceiling fans/lights in both bedrooms and living room. Primary bathr

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Community pool
• Built 2026

Tags

• CUSTOM LAMINATE FLOORING
• UPGRADED CARPETING IN BEDROOMS
• UPGRADED PACKAGE KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL DISHWASHER
• SELF-CLEANING GAS RANGE
• STAINLESS SINGLE BOWL SINK

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Located in a community with a shared pool

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-story; No one above or below (no common walls); Located in the Pepper Villa community, El Cajon
• Construction: HardiPlank-type siding; Shingle roof; Built as a manufactured home
• Exterior features: Covered porch with awnings; Partial fencing; Community pool; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator; Free-standing range / Oven; Self-cleaning oven; Ice maker; Gas range
• Bedrooms: 2 possible bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating (natural gas)
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator; Free-standing range / Oven; Self-cleaning oven; Ice maker; Gas range; Range
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $278k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-65 ($-780/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $269k (3.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $235k (15.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $235k (15.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#383 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing B+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Grossmont Union High (suburban): math 31% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #173 of 517 in CA (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: W. D. Hall Elementary (540 students, 81% FRL); Greenfield Middle (663 students, 84% FRL); El Cajon Valley High (math 22% / reading 45%, grade F, #656 of 1,170 statewide, top 57%, 1,652 students, 91% FRL) — zoned schools average 85% FRL vs 17% district-wide (69 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 34% at this address vs 46% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Grossmont Union High average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 244 active listings in the ZIP; 39 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($262k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $235,404 (15.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.00%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $202,560
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1351 Pepper Dr Spc 62	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,056 (+10%)	2mo	$226,900	$215	76
1315 Pepper Dr #82	0.07mi	3/2.0 (+1)	878 (-8%)	6mo	$185,000	$211	72
1120 Pepper Dr #101	0.46mi	2/2.0	960 (0%)	11mo	$139,000	$145	70
12044 Royal Rd #63	0.32mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,000 (+4%)	5mo	$257,321	$257	69
12044 Royal Rd #76	0.32mi	2/2.0	880 (-8%)	4mo	$1,450,000	$1,648	68
1351 Pepper Dr Spc 40	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,056 (+10%)	20mo	$171,000	$162	62
12044 Royal Rd Spc 66	0.32mi	3/2.0 (+1)	880 (-8%)	21mo	$155,000	$176	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-56,130
• Equity at exit: $41,525

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-80,721
• Equity at exit: $24,080

Cash invested: $77,980 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92021

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 244
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,354 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,460
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$348 /mo · $4,178/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$494
• Net cashflow: $-65

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,436

Max offer price $269,100

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $128	-5% $31	+0% $-65	+5% $-161	+10% $-257
Rent	-10% $-251	-5% $-158	+0% $-65	+5% $28	+10% $121
Rate	-1.0pp $75	-0.5pp $6	base $-65	+0.5pp $-137	+1.0pp $-211

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,625
• Closing costs: $8,355
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 39 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1651 Braddon Way Unit B El Cajon, CA	1.0	2.0	800	$2,000	$2.50	0d	1	0.13mi
8031 Winter Gardens Blvd El Cajon, CA	3.0	2.0	1124	$2,995	$2.66	0d	1	0.20mi
8424 Pueblo Rd Unit 8424 Lakeside, CA	3.0	1.0	1000	$2,650	$2.65	0d	1	0.64mi
1221 Oro St El Cajon, CA	2.0	1.5	1020	$2,575	$2.52	0d	1	0.69mi
12171 Winter Gardens Dr Lakeside, CA	2.0	1.0	862	$2,500	$2.90	0d	1	0.71mi
1641 Greenfield Dr Unit 1641 El Cajon, CA	1.0	1.0	600	$1,900	$3.17	0d	1	0.78mi
1365 Broadway El Cajon, CA	3.0	2.0	1000	$3,478	$3.48	3d	1	0.88mi
1430 Diamond Ln El Cajon, CA	2.0	1.0	863	$2,695	$3.12	4d	1	0.88mi
1314 5 D Dr Unit 1318 El Cajon, CA	3.0	1.0	960	$2,600	$2.71	26d	1	0.90mi
1696 Buckeye Dr El Cajon, CA	3.0	1.0	942	$2,900	$3.08	4d	1	0.91mi
1546 Broadway El Cajon, CA	1.0	1.0	625	$1,745	$2.79	0d	1	0.95mi
745 E Bradley Ave Unit 46 El Cajon, CA	3.0	1.0	806	$2,298	$2.85	26d	1	1.07mi
2000 E Main St El Cajon, CA	3.0	1.5–2.5	1165	$3,300	$2.83	0d	1	1.09mi
1050 Peach Ave El Cajon, CA	2.0	2.0	850	$3,460	$4.07	7d	1	1.18mi
1294 N Mollison Ave El Cajon, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	750	$2,112	$2.82	0d	6	1.18mi
1038 Peach Ave El Cajon, CA	2.0	1.5	850	$1,870	$2.20	0d	1	1.20mi
8237 Churchill Dr El Cajon, CA	1.0	1.0	560	$1,950	$3.48	0d	1	1.20mi
1005 N Mollison Ave El Cajon, CA	2.0	1.0	750	$2,195	$2.93	0d	1	1.24mi
1037 Peach Ave El Cajon, CA	1.0	1.0	560	$1,694	$3.03	0d	4	1.24mi
1343 Oakdale Ave El Cajon, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	800	$2,195	$2.74	0d	1	1.25mi
1377 Oakdale Ave Unit 03 El Cajon, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$2,425	$2.69	1d	1	1.25mi
425 E Bradley Ave El Cajon, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	771	$2,350	$3.05	0d	13	1.26mi
1512 Oakdale Ave Unit 1512-2 El Cajon, CA	2.0	1.0	805	$1,925	$2.39	0d	1	1.27mi
1520 Oakdale Ave Apt 3 El Cajon, CA	2.0	1.0	840	$2,125	$2.53	9d	1	1.27mi
1019 Peach Ave El Cajon, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	700	$2,161	$3.09	0d	7	1.29mi
1360 E Madison Ave El Cajon, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	550	$2,595	$4.72	0d	22	1.31mi
360 E Bradley Ave El Cajon, CA	3.0	2.0	1116	$2,974	$2.66	0d	4	1.31mi
523 Grape St El Cajon, CA	1.0	1.0	648	$1,695	$2.62	0d	2	1.33mi
989 Peach Ave El Cajon, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	845	$2,202	$2.61	0d	11	1.34mi
8937 Fair Ln Lakeside, CA	1.0	1.0	640	$2,050	$3.20	0d	1	1.34mi
500 Grape St El Cajon, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$2,150	$2.39	0d	1	1.35mi
1261 Victor Ave Unit 9 El Cajon, CA	2.0	2.0	810	$2,195	$2.71	0d	1	1.36mi
798 McClure St Apt 7 El Cajon, CA	1.0	1.0	570	$1,595	$2.80	0d	1	1.40mi
798 McClure St Unit 14 El Cajon, CA	3.0	1.0	916	$2,295	$2.51	0d	1	1.40mi
310 E Bradley Ave El Cajon, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	664	$2,050	$3.09	0d	1	1.40mi
421 Shady Ln El Cajon, CA	1.0	1.0	575	$1,708	$2.97	0d	3	1.44mi
422 Shady Ln El Cajon, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	900	$2,305	$2.56	0d	18	1.45mi
541 N 1st St Apt 14 El Cajon, CA	1.0	1.0	550	$1,550	$2.82	0d	1	1.47mi
848 N Mollison Ave El Cajon, CA	1.0	1.0	690	$2,101	$3.04	0d	5	1.48mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $278,500 Active 72 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $278,500 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $278,500 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $278,500 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $278,500 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $278,500 Active 64 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $278,500 Active 63 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $278,500 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $278,500 Active 59 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $278,500 Active 58 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $278,500 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $278,500 Active 54 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $278,500 Active 53 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $278,500 Active 52 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $278,500 Active 51 DOM
16. 2026-04-10
    listed $278,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 5 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,248
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,600
• − Property taxes: −$4,178
• − Insurance: −$1,392
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,260
• − Management: −$2,260
• − Depreciation: −$8,102
• Taxable loss: −$5,543
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,330
• After-tax cash flow: $551/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Grossmont Union High
• NCES district ID: 0616230
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,801
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3810
• State rank: #173 of 517 in CA

Livability — Bostonia

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #383
• US rank: #13065

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment B- Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bostonia, CA
• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 70,501
• Household income: $74,013
• Rent vs Own: 46.2% rent · 53.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 4178.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 14% Black 6% Asian 5% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Arab 6% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 18% Arabic 7% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -654.88%
• Current HPI: 335.0617
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.83%
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Listed $278,500 SDMLS

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2013): $207 · +5.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.