8615 Willow Xing · Elmendorf, TX 78222

$187,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,483 sqft · SingleFamily · 54 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 4,791 sqft lot Est $188k · at est. $100/mo HOA · 5% of rent ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.6/15.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Hoffman- This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location at the front of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms just off the main living areas, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests. Estimated Completion June 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $188k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $142 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $188k).
• Recommended offer: $182k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 3.5% in Elmendorf — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,189 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Floresville ISD (town): math 32% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #504 of 826 in TX (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Floresville Middle (math 28% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,036 of 1,662 statewide, top 63%, 904 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 444 active listings in the ZIP; 135 units permitted in Wilson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wilson County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $182,359 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.25%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $188,341
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8615 Willow Xing	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,483 (0%)	1mo	$187,999	$127	99
8559 Willow Xing	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,483 (0%)	2mo	$194,999	$131	98
8555 Green Bliss	0.00mi	4/2.5	1,535 (+4%)	1mo	$162,999	$106	92
8535 Green Bliss	0.00mi	4/2.5	1,535 (+4%)	2mo	$163,999	$107	91
8635 Willow Xing	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,354 (-9%)	0mo	$174,999	$129	80
8611 Willow Xing	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,354 (-9%)	1mo	$196,999	$145	80
8539 Willow Xing	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,354 (-9%)	2mo	$181,999	$134	79
8631 Willow Xing	0.00mi	4/2.5	1,692 (+14%)	1mo	$194,999	$115	74
8619 Willow Xing	0.00mi	4/2.5	1,692 (+14%)	1mo	$199,999	$118	74
8555 Willow Xing	0.00mi	4/2.5	1,692 (+14%)	1mo	$205,999	$122	73
8607 Willow Xing	0.00mi	4/2.5	1,692 (+14%)	1mo	$222,999	$132	73
8531 Willow Xing	0.00mi	4/2.5	1,692 (+14%)	2mo	$205,999	$122	73

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.35% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-18,620
• Equity at exit: $28,031

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $7,160
• Equity at exit: $16,255

Cash invested: $52,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78222

• Home prices YoY: -4.8%
• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 444
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,951 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$986
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$235 /mo · $2,820/yr
• Insurance: −$78
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$410
• Net cashflow: $142

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,771

Max offer price $187,999

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $272	-5% $207	+0% $142	+5% $77	+10% $12
Rent	-10% $-12	-5% $65	+0% $142	+5% $219	+10% $297
Rate	-1.0pp $237	-0.5pp $190	base $142	+0.5pp $94	+1.0pp $44

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,000
• Closing costs: $5,640
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-18
   price $187,999
3. 2026-04-14
   price $191,999
4. 2026-04-09
   price $193,999
5. 2026-04-07
   price $213,999
6. 2026-02-27
   listed $212,999 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,416
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,531
• − Property taxes: −$2,820
• − Insurance: −$940
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,873
• − Management: −$1,873
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$5,469
• Taxable loss: −$1,290
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$310
• After-tax cash flow: $2,018/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a cosmetic rehab level and requires minor maintenance and updates to the exterior and landscaping to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Floresville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819350
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $59,736
• Composite: 30.44/100
• National rank: #6234
• State rank: #504 of 826 in TX

Livability — Elmendorf

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1189
• US rank: #20804

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bexar County · 1,990,555 people
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 26,476
• Household income: $66,362
• Rent vs Own: 28.5% rent · 71.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 686.0

Population outlook (Wilson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 58,434 people
• By 2030: 63,912 · +9.4%
• By 2040: 74,704 · +27.8%
• By 2050: 85,024 · +45.5%
• By 2075: 111,025 · +90.0%
• By 2100: 126,692 · +116.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 64% Two or more races 26% White 19% Black 14% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 55%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 37% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wilson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+53.7) · D 22.9% · R 76.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -33.9pp · 2024: -53.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+53.7 2020: R+48.4 2016: R+47.8 2012: R+43.0 2008: R+33.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -14.18%
• Current HPI: 278.8429
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.35%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-11.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Pending — LERA
• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $187,999 LERA
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $191,999 LERA
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $193,999 LERA
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $213,999 LERA
• 2026-02-27 Listed $212,999 LERA