13420 Willow Oak Cir · Gulfport, MS 39503

$209,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,170 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 2014 7,405 sqft lot Est $197k · 7% over $180/mo HOA · 11% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.7/30.0
• ARV discount +4.4/15.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Adorable three bedroom home with many features that make it a true gem! Ceramic plank flooring, granite countertops, and stainless steel appliances are just a few. Minutes away from all Highway 49 has to offer! Could make a great investment property as well. Don't miss out on this one!

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Rich cabinetry
• Open living area

Tags

• WOOD-LOOK TILE FLOORING
• OPEN LIVING AREA
• RICH CABINETRY
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• COVERED FRONT PORCH

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community association with a $180 fee

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage; See remarks for additional parking details
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water available
• Home design: Single-family residence (house); One level
• Construction: Stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built in (year per public records)
• Exterior features: Slab patio/porch; Other exterior features (see remarks)

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in electric range; Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Flooring: See remarks
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen island

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-61 ($-736/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $199k (5.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $171k (18.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $171k (18.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.9% in Gulfport — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#15 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Harrison County School District (rural): math 52% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #14 of 130 in MS (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.0%/yr); 770 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 71% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,194 units permitted in Harrison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harrison County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $129k; list at $210k implies a 62% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $170,879 (18.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.25%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $196,560
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13637 Lawton Ln	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,176 (+0%)	2mo	$199,000	$169	76
13691 Lawton Ln	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,220 (+4%)	1mo	$205,000	$168	74
13276 Tortoise Trl	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,312 (+12%)	2mo	$222,000	$169	70
13727 Churchwood Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,237 (+6%)	4mo	$219,900	$178	68
13292 Turtle Creek Pkwy	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,312 (+12%)	4mo	$223,000	$170	68
13395 Libby Ln	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,268 (+8%)	4mo	$198,000	$156	64
13454 Addison Ave	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,300 (+11%)	6mo	$189,999	$146	59
13150 Turtle Creek Pkwy	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,332 (+14%)	5mo	$225,000	$169	58
13730 Churchwood Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,328 (+14%)	6mo	$219,900	$166	54
13102 Turtle Creek Pkwy	0.32mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,318 (+13%)	2mo	$209,000	$159	54
13669 Skye Ct	0.36mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,021 (-13%)	3mo	$165,000	$162	51
13700 Three Rivers Rd	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,092 (-7%)	3mo	$159,900	$146	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.99% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-30,781
• Equity at exit: $31,297

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $-34
• Equity at exit: $18,148

Cash invested: $58,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39503

• Home prices YoY: -21.5%
• Rents YoY: 7.0%
• Active inventory: 770
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,709 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$43 /mo · $517/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$180
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$359
• Net cashflow: $-61

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,786

Max offer price $199,069

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $58	-5% $-2	+0% $-61	+5% $-121	+10% $-180
Rent	-10% $-196	-5% $-129	+0% $-61	+5% $6	+10% $74
Rate	-1.0pp $44	-0.5pp $-8	base $-61	+0.5pp $-116	+1.0pp $-171

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,475
• Closing costs: $6,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13070 Tracewood Dr Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1190	$1,400	$1.18	22d	1	0.64mi
14179 Debra Barbee Ct Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1379	$1,849	$1.34	22d	1	0.77mi
13498 Dee Ave Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1410	$1,750	$1.24	45d	1	0.93mi
13459 Gorman St Gulfport, MS	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,649	$1.65	45d	1	0.94mi
12450 Three Rivers Rd Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1098	$1,295	$1.18	45d	1	1.10mi
13727 Fox Hill Dr Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1388	$1,800	$1.30	45d	1	1.14mi
14180 Oneal Rd Gulfport, MS	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,100	$1.10	45d	2	1.34mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $180 · $2,160/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $209,900 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $209,900 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $209,900 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $209,900 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $209,900 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $209,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $517 · $43/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,658 · $138/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,141/yr (+$95/mo · 220.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,505
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,758
• − Property taxes: −$517
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,640
• − Management: −$1,640
• − HOA: −$2,160
• − Depreciation: −$6,106
• Taxable loss: −$4,365
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,048
• After-tax cash flow: $312/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harrison County School District
• NCES district ID: 2801770
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,504
• Composite: 41.66/100
• National rank: #3419
• State rank: #14 of 130 in MS

Livability — Gulfport

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #15
• US rank: #5010

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gulfport, MS
• County: Harrison County · 178,171 people
• City population: 96,188
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• Population (ZIP): 55,059
• Household income: $62,641
• Rent vs Own: 29.3% rent · 70.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1686.0

Population outlook (Harrison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 228,444 people
• By 2030: 241,942 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 267,531 · +17.1%
• By 2050: 291,062 · +27.4%
• By 2075: 346,711 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 378,165 · +65.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 27% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Harrison

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.9) · D 35.0% · R 63.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.9pp toward R · 2008: -26.0pp · 2024: -28.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.9 2020: R+25.2 2016: R+30.7 2012: R+26.6 2008: R+26.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.39%
• Current HPI: 187.285
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.99%
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+62.2% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $209,900 MLSU
• 2024-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-10-19 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2023-10-14 Listed $179,900 MLSU
• 2022-05-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-05-02 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2022-01-19 Pending — MLSU
• 2021-12-22 Listed $165,000 MLSU
• 2020-01-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-01-15 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2019-12-13 Listed $132,000 MLSU
• 2014-08-29 Sold (Public Records) $129,400 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $517 · +0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.