29056 Via Playa Del Rey · Murrieta, CA 92563

$325,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,824 sqft · Manufactured public records · 60 Days on market

Built 1972 5,227 sqft lot $178/sqft · 19% below area Est $399k · 19% under $95/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

RARE LAND-OWNED OPPORTUNITY in the premier 55+ community of Spring Knolls! Say goodbye to high monthly space rent—here you own the land, offering superior financial stability, equity growth, and peace of mind. This sun-drenched, meticulously maintained residence features two spacious bedrooms and two full bathrooms, offering a sophisticated layout that prioritizes both comfort and flow. At the center of the home, the gourmet kitchen serves as a modern centerpiece, showcasing exquisite granite countertops and breakfast bar, sleek black appliances tailored for culinary enthusiasts. Every detail has been curated for an effortless lifestyle: the updated guest bathroom is equipped with granite counters, plenty of cabinet space and a walk-in shower, while the primary suite offers a private sanctuary complete with a sit-down shower-and-tub combination for ultimate relaxation. Framed by expansive windows that invite an abundance of natural light and refreshing cross-breezes, the interior exudes a serene, airy ambiance. Perfectly positioned just moments from the verdant fairways of the California Oaks Golf Club, residents enjoy unparalleled access to a scenic 18-hole course and a fully stocked pro shop. Within the community itself, life is defined by resort-caliber amenities, including a stately clubhouse, two sparkling swimming pools, a rejuvenating spa, and a state-of-the-art fitness center. Whether you seek quiet tranquility or a robust social calendar filled with fitness classes, group excursions, and community celebrations, this home offers a seamless blend of low-maintenance luxury and connection. Centrally located near premier shopping, fine dining, and top-tier medical facilities, this is the lifestyle you have truly earned.

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• Spa
• Walk-in shower

Tags

• WALK-IN SHOWER
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• CALIFORNIA OAKS GOLF CLUB
• CLUBHOUSE
• TWO POOLS
• SPA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $262 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $301k (7.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $301k (7.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 3.0% in Murrieta — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#279 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, commute F, cost of living F.
• Murrieta Valley Unified (suburban): math 51% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #255 of 1,400 in CA (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.0%/yr); 239 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($315k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $145k; list at $325k implies a 124% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $300,952 (7.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.46%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $399,250
• List price: $325,000
• Delta: -18.60%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
29118 Calle Potro	0.17mi	2/2.0	1,745 (-4%)	1mo	$420,000	$241	84
38350 Via Taffia	0.05mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,680 (-8%)	2mo	$380,000	$226	78
38138 Calle Quedo	0.36mi	2/2.0	1,908 (+5%)	3mo	$430,000	$225	73
38240 Calle Arrebol	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,632 (-10%)	4mo	$292,700	$179	71
38262 Via Oruga	0.21mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,684 (-8%)	3mo	$436,000	$259	70
38344 Via La Colina	0.30mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,680 (-8%)	6mo	$479,000	$285	63
38055 Calle Amigable	0.37mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,716 (-6%)	8mo	$500,000	$291	61
38327 Via La Paloma	0.29mi	2/2.0	1,615 (-12%)	9mo	$302,000	$187	60
38069 Calle De Amor	0.31mi	2/2.0	1,560 (-14%)	3mo	$205,000	$131	59
38141 Via La Colina	0.43mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,664 (-9%)	2mo	$479,800	$288	58
28876 Calle De La Paz	0.22mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,568 (-14%)	7mo	$436,000	$278	56
28771 Via Estrella	0.33mi	3/2.0 (+1)	2,061 (+13%)	3mo	$405,000	$197	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.01% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-41,898
• Equity at exit: $48,459

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-38,406
• Equity at exit: $28,100

Cash invested: $91,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92563

• Home prices YoY: -17.8%
• Rents YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 239
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,010 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax from tax record: −$180 /mo · $2,165/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$95
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$632
• Net cashflow: $262

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,677

Max offer price $325,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $446	-5% $354	+0% $262	+5% $170	+10% $78
Rent	-10% $25	-5% $143	+0% $262	+5% $381	+10% $500
Rate	-1.0pp $426	-0.5pp $345	base $262	+0.5pp $178	+1.0pp $92

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,250
• Closing costs: $9,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
38635 Via Taffia Murrieta, CA	2.0	2.5	2030	$2,595	$1.28	0d	1	0.15mi
29324 Calle Gaviota Murrieta, CA	3.0	3.0	1854	$3,150	$1.70	44d	1	0.61mi
39656 Columbia Union Dr Unit C Murrieta, CA	3.0	2.0	1408	$2,925	$2.08	25d	1	0.62mi
39668 Princeton Way Unit C Murrieta, CA	3.0	2.0	1408	$2,900	$2.06	6d	1	0.64mi
39484 Via Montalvo Murrieta, CA	3.0	2.5	1808	$6,500	$3.60	44d	1	0.65mi
26254 Douglass Union Ln Murrieta, CA	3.0	2.5	2601	$3,095	$1.19	44d	1	0.66mi
26137 Oakcreek Union Dr Unit C Murrieta, CA	3.0	2.0	1408	$2,950	$2.10	0d	1	0.76mi
26133 Williams Way Murrieta, CA	3.0	2.0	1408	$3,100	$2.20	44d	1	0.81mi
39875 Alpine Union St Unit B Murrieta, CA	3.0	2.5	1654	$2,795	$1.69	44d	1	0.83mi
38245 Murrieta Hot Springs Rd Murrieta, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1020	$2,828	$2.77	0d	24	0.87mi
39930 Alpine Union St Murrieta, CA	3.0	2.5	1654	$2,795	$1.69	0d	1	0.90mi
26900 Winchester Creek Ave Murrieta, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1315	$2,510	$1.91	44d	1	1.00mi
40213 Calle Real Unit 40213 Murrieta, CA	3.0	2.5	1427	$2,795	$1.96	6d	1	1.21mi
25295 Shadescale Dr Murrieta, CA	3.0	2.0	1368	$2,950	$2.16	25d	1	1.26mi
40319 Calle Real Murrieta, CA	3.0	2.5	1427	$2,900	$2.03	25d	1	1.36mi
40324 Calle Real Murrieta, CA	2.0	2.5	1336	$2,495	$1.87	6d	1	1.36mi
40358 Calle Real Murrieta, CA	3.0	3.0	1427	$2,795	$1.96	44d	1	1.38mi
40419 Calle Real Murrieta, CA	3.0	2.5	1427	$2,750	$1.93	6d	1	1.45mi
40444 Calle Real Murrieta, CA	3.0	2.5	1574	$3,000	$1.91	44d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $95 · $1,140/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $325,000 Active 60 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $325,000 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $325,000 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $325,000 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $325,000 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $325,000 Active 52 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $325,000 Active 48 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $325,000 Active 47 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $325,000 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $325,000 Active 43 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $325,000 Active 42 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $325,000 Active 41 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $325,000 Active 40 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $325,000 Active 39 DOM
15. 2026-04-22
    listed $325,000 Active 1759-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1759 chars)

    RARE LAND-OWNED OPPORTUNITY in the premier 55+ community of Spring Knolls! Say goodbye to high monthly space rent—here you own the land, offering superior financial stability, equity growth, and peace of mind. This sun-drenched, meticulously maintained residence features two spacious bedrooms and two full bathrooms, offering a sophisticated layout that prioritizes both comfort and flow. At the center of the home, the gourmet kitchen serves as a modern centerpiece, showcasing exquisite granite countertops and breakfast bar, sleek black appliances tailored for culinary enthusiasts. Every detail has been curated for an effortless lifestyle: the updated guest bathroom is equipped with granite counters, plenty of cabinet space and a walk-in shower, while the primary suite offers a private sanctuary complete with a sit-down shower-and-tub combination for ultimate relaxation. Framed by expansive windows that invite an abundance of natural light and refreshing cross-breezes, the interior exudes a serene, airy ambiance. Perfectly positioned just moments from the verdant fairways of the California Oaks Golf Club, residents enjoy unparalleled access to a scenic 18-hole course and a fully stocked pro shop. Within the community itself, life is defined by resort-caliber amenities, including a stately clubhouse, two sparkling swimming pools, a rejuvenating spa, and a state-of-the-art fitness center. Whether you seek quiet tranquility or a robust social calendar filled with fitness classes, group excursions, and community celebrations, this home offers a seamless blend of low-maintenance luxury and connection. Centrally located near premier shopping, fine dining, and top-tier medical facilities, this is the lifestyle you have truly earned.

16. 2026-04-15
    historical
17. 2026-01-13
    price $319,700
18. 2025-09-20
    listed $329,700 Active
19. 2005-06-17
    soldstatus $145,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,165 · $180/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,470 · $206/mo
• Expected delta: +$305/yr (+$25/mo · 14.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,114
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,205
• − Property taxes: −$2,165
• − Insurance: −$1,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,889
• − Management: −$2,889
• − HOA: −$1,140
• − Depreciation: −$9,455
• Taxable loss: −$2,253
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$541
• After-tax cash flow: $3,689/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Murrieta Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600029
• Math proficiency: 51% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $78,615
• Composite: 53.42/100
• National rank: #3152
• State rank: #255 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Murrieta

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #279
• US rank: #9348

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Murrieta, CA
• County: Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
• City population: 145,160
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 80,379
• Household income: $125,397
• Rent vs Own: 25.2% rent · 74.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1075.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 41% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 17% Asian 13% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 17% Tagalog/Filipino 5% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -73.79%
• Current HPI: 341.728
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.01%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+124.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Listed $325,000 CRMLS
• 2026-04-15 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2026-01-13 Price Changed $319,700 CRMLS
• 2025-09-20 Listed $329,700 CRMLS
• 2005-06-17 Sold (Public Records) $145,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,165 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.