4102 Fox Hill Dr · Baiting Hollow, NY 11933

$599,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,192 sqft · Condo public records · 4 Days on market

Built 2021 Good condition $540/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.5/30.0
• DSCR +9.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.6/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Rarely available for sale, golf course views with 2 bedrooms and 2 baths. community features include but not limited to Tennis, Pickleball courts, pool, exercise facilities and access to beautiful Long Island Sound for residents. This unit has been lightly used since purchase. .. priced to sell!

Key facts

• Tennis
• Pickleball courts
• Exercise facilities

Tags

• GOLF COURSE VIEWS
• TENNIS
• PICKLEBALL COURTS
• POOL
• EXERCISE FACILITIES

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Monthly association fee; Community amenities: fitness center, pool, tennis courts; Association fee covers common area maintenance, exterior maintenance, grounds care, pool service, snow removal

Exterior

• Parking: Parking lot (no carport)
• Utilities: PSEG electric; Water connected; Sewer connected (other); Cable connected; Trash collection (public)
• Home design: Condominium; One level; 2 total stories; Second floor entry
• Construction: Shingle siding construction
• Exterior features: Shingle siding; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas oven; Gas range; Oven; Range; Refrigerator; Freezer
• Bedrooms: 2nd floor entry level
• Flooring: Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Eat-in kitchen; No basement; Attic: none; Pets allowed
• Laundry & utility: In-unit washer; In-unit dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $599k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($19k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($8k rent vs $599k).
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 5.5% in Baiting Hollow — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#953 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Riverhead Central School District (suburban): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #489 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Riley Avenue School (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #1,195 of 2,108 statewide, top 60%, 461 students, 34% FRL); Riverhead Middle School (math 18% / reading 35%, grade F, #594 of 729 statewide, top 81%, 827 students, 57% FRL); Riverhead Senior High School (math 80% / reading 86%, grade A, #440 of 1,100 statewide, top 40%, 2,001 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (3.3% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (3.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $168k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $599,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.33%
• DSCR: 1.50
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.26% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.08×
• Total profit: $181,549
• Equity at exit: $278,135

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.95×
• Total profit: $495,186
• Equity at exit: $435,608

Cash invested: $167,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11933

• Home prices YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $7,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,141
• Tax from tax record: −$410 /mo · $4,923/yr
• Insurance: −$250
• HOA: −$540
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,575
• Net cashflow: $1,584

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,495

Max offer price $599,000

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $149,750
• Closing costs: $17,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1834 Edwards Ave Calverton, NY	3.0	1.5	1344	$7,500	$5.58	24d	1	1.15mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $540 · $6,480/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $599,000 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $599,000 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $599,000 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   remarks 296-char remark
5. 2026-06-09
   listed $599,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,923 · $410/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,523 · $627/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,600/yr (+$217/mo · 52.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $90,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$33,553
• − Property taxes: −$4,923
• − Insurance: −$2,995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$7,200
• − Management: −$7,200
• − HOA: −$6,480
• − Depreciation: −$17,425
• Taxable income: $10,223
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,454
• After-tax cash flow: $16,554/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained, lightly used condo is in excellent condition with modern amenities and golf course views. Minor updates to the exterior and landscaping would significantly enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace window treatments — Modernizes look and improves energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace window treatments — Modernizes look and improves energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverhead Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3624690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 13.00%
• Median HH income: $61,607
• Composite: 36.38/100
• National rank: #4683
• State rank: #489 of 590 in NY

Livability — Baiting Hollow

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #953
• US rank: #18639

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baiting Hollow, NY
• Population (ZIP): 6,784

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 8% Two or more races 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 1% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 3% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.26%
• Current HPI: 397.7148
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-07 Listed $599,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,923 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.