639 Main St · Geraldine, MT 59446

$89,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 588 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 254 Days on market

Built 1914 7,013 sqft lot ↓ 21% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.5/30.0
• Appreciation +8.9/10.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Key facts

• Original details
• Historic home
• 7,013 sq ft lot

Tags

• HISTORIC HOME
• ORIGINAL DETAILS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $89k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $182 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($954 rent vs $89k).
• Recommended offer: $78k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#170 in MT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-, schools B; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, crime F.
• Geraldine K-12 (rural): math 21% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #217 of 339 in MT (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 7 active listings in the ZIP; 16 units permitted in Chouteau County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($615 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (7.9% local appreciation)).
• Chouteau County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (7.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 254 days — a 12% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1914 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $78,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 254 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1914 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.75%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.87% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.90×
• Total profit: $47,458
• Equity at exit: $66,803

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.18×
• Total profit: $129,051
• Equity at exit: $131,834

Cash invested: $24,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Montana: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; no rent control; preempted; rural-skewed market.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 59446

• Home prices YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 7
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $954 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$467
• Tax from tax record: −$68 /mo · $821/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$200
• Net cashflow: $182

Break-even live

Break-even rent $724

Max offer price $89,000

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,250
• Closing costs: $2,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-03-25
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-19
   price $89,000
3. 2025-10-02
   price $99,000
4. 2025-09-02
   price $104,000
5. 2025-07-14
   listed $112,000 Active
6. 2008-02-04
   soldstatus
7. 2000-03-14
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MT · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $821 · $68/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $821 · $68/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major 48% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,451
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,985
• − Property taxes: −$821
• − Insurance: −$445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$916
• − Management: −$916
• − Depreciation: −$2,589
• Taxable income: $779
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$187
• After-tax cash flow: $1,993/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Geraldine K-12
• NCES district ID: 3012210
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 20.00%
• Median HH income: $40,267
• Composite: 28.47/100
• National rank: #12099
• State rank: #217 of 339 in MT

Livability — Geraldine

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #170
• US rank: #16136

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A- Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Geraldine, MT
• Population (ZIP): 605

Population outlook (Chouteau County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,948 people
• By 2030: 6,042 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 6,221 · +4.6%
• By 2050: 6,433 · +8.2%
• By 2075: 7,265 · +22.1%
• By 2100: 7,340 · +23.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 16% Portuguese 7% Slovak 5%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chouteau

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.2) · D 32.0% · R 64.2% · Other 3.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.9pp · 2024: -32.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.2 2020: R+30.3 2016: R+36.8 2012: R+27.9 2008: R+17.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.87%
• Current HPI: 214.1924
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.41%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology / Analytics	1	$2B

Price history

-20.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-25 Pending — MRMLS
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $89,000 MRMLS
• 2025-10-02 Price Changed $99,000 MRMLS
• 2025-09-02 Price Changed $104,000 MRMLS
• 2025-07-14 Listed $112,000 MRMLS
• 2008-02-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2000-03-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $821 · +7.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.