Rachael Plan · Kendleton, TX 77417

$316,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,381 sqft · SingleFamily · 199 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.1/10.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Rachael, a spacious 2,381 sq. ft. two-story home, offers a thoughtfully crafted layout featuring an open-concept main floor with a modern kitchen, large island, walk-in pantry, and a seamless flow into the dining and family rooms, all overlooking a covered patio. The first floor also includes a private owner's suite with a generous walk-in closet and a well-appointed bath, with an optional separate tub and shower, along with a convenient powder room, utility room, and a 2-car garage. Upstairs, a central game room anchors the second level and connects three additional bedrooms-each with its own walk-in closet-and a shared full bath, creating an ideal space for family life, entertaining, and quiet retreat.

Key facts

• Covered patio
• Large island
• Modern kitchen

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT MAIN FLOOR
• MODERN KITCHEN
• LARGE ISLAND
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• COVERED PATIO
• PRIVATE OWNER'S SUITE

🏗️ New construction. The $316,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $299,663.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $317k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $271 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $296k (6.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $279k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,021 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime D, amenities F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Beasley El (math 42% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 366 students, 86% FRL); Lamar J H (math 30% / reading 34%, grade F, #971 of 1,662 statewide, top 60%, 1,246 students, 71% FRL); Lamar Cons H S (math 26% / reading 48%, grade F, #897 of 1,632 statewide, top 57%, 1,762 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 73% FRL vs 43% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 34% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Lamar CISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 232 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $12k appreciation (4.2% local appreciation)).
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (4.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $84k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 199 days — a 12% lower offer ($279k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $278,951 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 199 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.88%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $299,663
• List price: $316,990
• Delta: 5.78%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10722 Sky Creek Ln	0.03mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,141 (-10%)	1mo	$319,000	$149	74
730 Mockingbird Passage Dr	0.26mi	4/3.5	2,563 (+8%)	2mo	$376,365	$147	70
722 Mockingbird Psge	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,200 (-8%)	2mo	$357,590	$163	67
731 Blue Stone Dr	0.72mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,386 (+0%)	2mo	$376,990	$158	60
1102 Arbor Dr	0.65mi	4/3.5	2,457 (+3%)	3mo	$334,990	$136	58
10722 Sage Bend Dr	0.48mi	4/3.5	2,649 (+11%)	2mo	$364,990	$138	54
1106 Arbor Dr	0.66mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,542 (+7%)	2mo	$329,990	$130	49
703 Blue Stone Dr	0.73mi	4/3.5	2,548 (+7%)	4mo	$385,990	$151	47
706 Blue Sky Pl	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,141 (-10%)	3mo	$319,990	$149	46
806 Blue Stone Dr	0.69mi	4/3.5	2,667 (+12%)	2mo	$396,990	$149	42
711 Blue Stone Dr	0.73mi	4/3.5	2,667 (+12%)	2mo	$401,990	$151	40
910 Blue Stone Dr	0.74mi	4/3.0	2,731 (+15%)	4mo	$393,990	$144	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.15% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.86×
• Total profit: $72,123
• Equity at exit: $154,625

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.51×
• Total profit: $210,668
• Equity at exit: $255,074

Cash invested: $83,906 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77417

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 232
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,965 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,571
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$375 /mo · $4,495/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$623
• Net cashflow: $271

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,621

Max offer price $299,663

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $479	-5% $375	+0% $271	+5% $168	+10% $64
Rent	-10% $37	-5% $154	+0% $271	+5% $389	+10% $506
Rate	-1.0pp $422	-0.5pp $348	base $271	+0.5pp $194	+1.0pp $115

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,916
• Closing costs: $8,990
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10730 Sky Creek Ln Beasley, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1869	$2,965	$1.59	0d	1	0.05mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $316,990 Active 199 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $316,990 Active 196 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $316,990 Active 195 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $316,990 Active 194 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $316,990 Active 193 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $316,990 Active 191 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $316,990 Active 187 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $316,990 Active 186 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $316,990 Active 185 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $319,990 Active 182 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $319,990 Active 181 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $319,990 Active 180 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $319,990 Active 179 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $319,990 Active 178 DOM
15. 2026-05-07
    price $319,990 717-char remark

    Show marketing remark (717 chars)

    The Rachael, a spacious 2,381 sq. ft. two-story home, offers a thoughtfully crafted layout featuring an open-concept main floor with a modern kitchen, large island, walk-in pantry, and a seamless flow into the dining and family rooms, all overlooking a covered patio. The first floor also includes a private owner's suite with a generous walk-in closet and a well-appointed bath, with an optional separate tub and shower, along with a convenient powder room, utility room, and a 2-car garage. Upstairs, a central game room anchors the second level and connects three additional bedrooms-each with its own walk-in closet-and a shared full bath, creating an ideal space for family life, entertaining, and quiet retreat.

16. 2025-12-04
    listed $339,990 Active 717-char remark

    Show marketing remark (717 chars)

    The Rachael, a spacious 2,381 sq. ft. two-story home, offers a thoughtfully crafted layout featuring an open-concept main floor with a modern kitchen, large island, walk-in pantry, and a seamless flow into the dining and family rooms, all overlooking a covered patio. The first floor also includes a private owner's suite with a generous walk-in closet and a well-appointed bath, with an optional separate tub and shower, along with a convenient powder room, utility room, and a 2-car garage. Upstairs, a central game room anchors the second level and connects three additional bedrooms-each with its own walk-in closet-and a shared full bath, creating an ideal space for family life, entertaining, and quiet retreat.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,580
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,786
• − Property taxes: −$4,495
• − Insurance: −$1,498
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,846
• − Management: −$2,846
• − Depreciation: −$8,717
• Taxable loss: −$1,609
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$386
• After-tax cash flow: $3,644/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

The Rachael Plan is a well-maintained, move-in-ready two-story home with a spacious layout and modern amenities.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and property value
• Both New flooring in high-traffic areas — Improves comfort and property value
• Both Upgrading kitchen appliances — Enhances functionality and appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both New flooring in high-traffic areas — Improves comfort and property value ↑
• Both Upgrading kitchen appliances — Enhances functionality and appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

Livability — Kendleton

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1021
• US rank: #18149

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 115,151
• Population (ZIP): 3,232

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 67% Two or more races 49% White 22% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 54%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 24%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.15%
• Current HPI: 337.8236
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $319,990 Zillow
• 2025-12-04 Listed $339,990 Zillow