25 Oakes Dr · Crystal City, MO 63019

$199,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · Other public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1963 6,777 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming and well-maintained single-family home in Crystal City, MO—offered as-is and ready for its next owner! The main level features two spacious bedrooms and a full bath, along with a bright and welcoming living area. The home has updated forced warm air (WFA) system and central air conditioning, providing year-round comfort and efficiency. Enjoy relaxing mornings on the covered front porch or entertain guests on the rear patio. A one-car garage adds convenience and additional storage. The partially finished lower level expands your living space with a large recreational room, perfect for gatherings, hobbies, or a home office. This level also includes a full bath and a walk-out, o

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Rear patio
• 6,777 sq ft lot

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• REAR PATIO
• UPDATED FORCED WARM AIR SYSTEM
• CENTRAL AIR CONDITIONING
• PARTIALLY FINISHED LOWER LEVEL
• LARGE RECREATIONAL ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Attached garage (1 car, approximately 11 x 22)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Cable available
• Home design: Single family residence; One level; Private ownership
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Front porch; Patio; Private yard; Partial fencing; Shed(s); Located on a cul-de-sac with front and back yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing electric oven; Free-standing electric range; Range hood; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (one on main level, one in lower level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Partially finished basement with storage and walk-out access

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $70 ($835/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $163k (18.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $163k (18.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.5% in Crystal City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#119 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Crystal City 47 (suburban): math 31% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #113 of 324 in MO (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Crystal City Elem. (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #481 of 1,115 statewide, top 46%, 318 students, 50% FRL); Crystal City High (math 27% / reading 57%, grade F, #218 of 521 statewide, top 45%, 224 students, 42% FRL).
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 807 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $63k; list at $199k implies a 216% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $163,250 (18.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.50%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-27,887
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-18,867
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63019

• Home prices YoY: -28.1%
• Active inventory: 17
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,632 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$94 /mo · $1,124/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$343
• Net cashflow: $70

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,544

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $182	-5% $126	+0% $70	+5% $13	+10% $-43
Rent	-10% $-59	-5% $5	+0% $70	+5% $134	+10% $199
Rate	-1.0pp $170	-0.5pp $120	base $70	+0.5pp $18	+1.0pp $-34

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
100 Ozark Dr Crystal City, MO	3.0	1.0	1064	$1,500	$1.41	25d	1	0.26mi
986 American Legion Dr Festus, MO	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,650	$1.50	25d	1	1.28mi
1107 Patriot Dr Festus, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1025	$1,650	$1.61	25d	1	1.28mi
102 Doctrine Dr Festus, MO	3.0	2.0	1350	$2,199	$1.63	23d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Pending 1042-char remark
2. 2026-04-30
   listed $199,000 Active 1042-char remark
3. 2026-03-27
   soldstatus
4. 2003-02-13
   soldstatus
5. 1994-06-03
   soldstatus $63,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,124 · $94/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,930 · $161/mo
• Expected delta: +$807/yr (+$67/mo · 71.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,590
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$1,124
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,567
• − Management: −$1,567
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$2,599
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$624
• After-tax cash flow: $1,458/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crystal City 47
• NCES district ID: 2910380
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $50,257
• Composite: 36.5/100
• National rank: #4649
• State rank: #113 of 324 in MO

Livability — Crystal City

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #119
• US rank: #7294

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Crystal City, MO
• City population: 4,490
• Population (ZIP): 4,490

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 235,088 people
• By 2030: 238,365 · +1.4%
• By 2040: 240,156 · +2.2%
• By 2050: 234,651 · -0.2%
• By 2075: 214,569 · -8.7%
• By 2100: 179,697 · -23.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 9% Black 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Serbian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.7) · D 31.0% · R 67.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -39.3pp toward R · 2008: 2.5pp · 2024: -36.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.7 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+35.3 2012: R+12.7 2008: D+2.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.19%
• Current HPI: 215.1127
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+215.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-05-28 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-04 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-30 Listed $199,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-02-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1994-06-03 Sold (Public Records) $63,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,124 · +5.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.