10013 Fairland Dr · Houston, TX 77051

$100,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,205 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 96 Days on market

Built 1958 5,771 sqft lot $83/sqft · 42% below area Est $174k · 42% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

As Is. Come see this open layout and huge garage.

Key facts

• 5,771 sq ft lot
• Built 1958
• Listed 95 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $642 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $91k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.0% vs local median 3.1% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.8%/yr); 315 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 56% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,808/mo this rent would consume 58% of the median local household income ($37k/yr) (locally 1446% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 4.8% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($91k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $91,000 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.81% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.51%
• DSCR: 2.22
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $173,591
• List price: $100,000
• Delta: -42.39%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10014 Sierra Dr	0.08mi	4/2.0	1,243 (+3%)	2mo	$185,000	$149	86
10209 Cathedral Dr	0.13mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,244 (+3%)	3mo	$180,000	$145	79
3034 Corksie St	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,225 (+2%)	0mo	$219,900	$180	73
3018 Elpyco St	0.44mi	4/2.0	1,215 (+1%)	1mo	$187,000	$154	73
9506 Sierra Dr	0.29mi	4/2.0	1,316 (+9%)	3mo	$160,000	$122	64
10818 Carlton Dr	0.66mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,246 (+3%)	2mo	$175,999	$141	57
10611 Leitrim Way	0.71mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,105 (-8%)	1mo	$159,900	$145	48
2818 Milton Lodge Ln	0.52mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,384 (+15%)	2mo	$279,990	$202	38
2814 Milton Lodge Ln	0.53mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,384 (+15%)	3mo	$279,990	$202	37
10204 Penryn Forest Trl	0.58mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,384 (+15%)	1mo	$284,990	$206	36
10108 Penryn Forest Trl	0.58mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,384 (+15%)	2mo	$279,990	$202	35
2614 Afton Heights Way	0.74mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,384 (+15%)	1mo	$279,990	$202	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 4.77% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 46.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.53×
• Total profit: $98,705
• Equity at exit: $90,088

10-year hold

• IRR: 40.9%
• Equity multiple: 10.49×
• Total profit: $265,835
• Equity at exit: $194,278

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77051

• Home prices YoY: 9.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.8%
• Active inventory: 315
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,808 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$220 /mo · $2,642/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$380
• Net cashflow: $642

Break-even live

Break-even rent $995

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 59%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $698	-5% $670	+0% $642	+5% $614	+10% $585
Rent	-10% $499	-5% $570	+0% $642	+5% $713	+10% $785
Rate	-1.0pp $692	-0.5pp $667	base $642	+0.5pp $616	+1.0pp $590

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10510 Cathedral Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	887	$1,300	$1.47	44d	1	0.28mi
2910 Reed Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1221	$1,228	$1.01	0d	3	0.78mi
2725 Reed Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	911	$975	$1.07	44d	1	1.05mi
4322 Groton Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	858	$1,395	$1.63	44d	1	1.08mi
11819 Leitrim Way Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1476	$1,150	$0.78	6d	1	1.31mi
4810 Wilmington St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1165	$1,650	$1.42	44d	1	1.34mi
4723 Mallow St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1472	$1,850	$1.26	6d	1	1.37mi
4526 Knoxville St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1474	$1,775	$1.20	16d	1	1.39mi
4918 Wilmington St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1300	$2,100	$1.62	44d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $100,000 Active 96 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $100,000 Active 93 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $100,000 Active 92 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $100,000 Active 91 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $100,000 Active 90 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $100,000 Active 88 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $100,000 Active 84 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $100,000 Active 83 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $100,000 Active 82 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $100,000 Active 79 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $100,000 Active 76 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $100,000 Active 75 DOM
13. 2026-03-17
    listed $100,000 Active 49-char remark

    Show marketing remark (49 chars)

    As Is. Come see this open layout and huge garage.

14. 2024-03-31
    historical
15. 2023-10-19
    listed $100,000 Active
16. 2023-05-16
    historical
17. 2022-02-24
    listed $100,000 Active
18. 2022-01-31
    historical
19. 2021-08-24
    historical
20. 2021-08-24
    listed $95,000 Active
21. 2021-08-23
    listed $95,000 Active
22. 2021-04-30
    historical
23. 2021-01-06
    listed $100,000 Active
24. 2017-09-29
    soldstatus
25. 2016-08-17
    soldstatus
26. 1999-01-15
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,642 · $220/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,642 · $220/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 95% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,692
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$2,642
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,735
• − Management: −$1,735
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $6,569
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,577
• After-tax cash flow: $6,126/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 19,795
• Household income: $37,415
• Rent vs Own: 58.2% rent · 41.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1446.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 77% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 11% White 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.02%
• Current HPI: 180.4283
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.77%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-17 Listed $100,000 HARMLS
• 2024-03-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-10-19 Listed $100,000 HARMLS
• 2023-05-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2022-02-24 Listed $100,000 HARMLS
• 2022-01-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2021-08-24 Listed $95,000 HARMLS
• 2021-08-24 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2021-08-23 Listed $95,000 HARMLS
• 2021-04-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2021-01-06 Listed $100,000 HARMLS
• 2017-09-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-08-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1999-01-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,642 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.