10948 Captain Ln · Cienega Springs, AZ 85344

$109,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 500 sqft · Manufactured public records · 93 Days on market

Built 1958 3,768 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This cozy one bedroom, one bath home features a fully fenced yard and ample space for all your toys. Located on deeded land with no HOA restrictions, it's the perfect spot for outdoor enthusiasts, just minutes from the desert and river! Come see today!

Key facts

• Deeded land
• No hoa restrictions
• Fully fenced yard

Tags

• FULLY FENCED YARD
• DEEDED LAND
• NO HOA RESTRICTIONS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $109k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $467 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $109k).
• Recommended offer: $99k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.4% vs local median 2.2% in Cienega Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#107 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Parker Unified School District (4510) (town): math 18% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #200 of 249 in AZ (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 147 active listings in the ZIP; 92 units permitted in La Paz County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $754 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• La Paz County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($99k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $6k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $109k implies a 56% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $99,190 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.42% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.35%
• DSCR: 1.82
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.40×
• Total profit: $12,092
• Equity at exit: $16,252

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.60×
• Total profit: $48,909
• Equity at exit: $9,424

Cash invested: $30,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85344

• Active inventory: 147
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,544 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$572
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$136 /mo · $1,635/yr
• Insurance: −$45
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$324
• Net cashflow: $467

Break-even live

Break-even rent $954

Max offer price $109,000

Occupancy floor 65%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,250
• Closing costs: $3,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $109,000 Active 93 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $109,000 Active 92 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $109,000 Active 91 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $109,000 Active 90 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $109,000 Active 88 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $109,000 Active 87 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $115,000 Active 85 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $115,000 Active 84 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $115,000 Active 83 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $115,000 Active 82 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $115,000 Active 79 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $115,000 Active 78 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $115,000 Active 77 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $115,000 Active 76 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $115,000 Active 75 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $115,000 Active 74 DOM
17. 2026-03-19
    status Active 253-char remark

    Show marketing remark (253 chars)

    This cozy one bedroom, one bath home features a fully fenced yard and ample space for all your toys. Located on deeded land with no HOA restrictions, it's the perfect spot for outdoor enthusiasts, just minutes from the desert and river! Come see today!

18. 2025-12-25
    status Active 253-char remark

    Show marketing remark (253 chars)

    This cozy one bedroom, one bath home features a fully fenced yard and ample space for all your toys. Located on deeded land with no HOA restrictions, it's the perfect spot for outdoor enthusiasts, just minutes from the desert and river! Come see today!

19. 2025-09-24
    status Pending 253-char remark

    Show marketing remark (253 chars)

    This cozy one bedroom, one bath home features a fully fenced yard and ample space for all your toys. Located on deeded land with no HOA restrictions, it's the perfect spot for outdoor enthusiasts, just minutes from the desert and river! Come see today!

20. 2025-09-22
    listed $115,000 Active 253-char remark

    Show marketing remark (253 chars)

    This cozy one bedroom, one bath home features a fully fenced yard and ample space for all your toys. Located on deeded land with no HOA restrictions, it's the perfect spot for outdoor enthusiasts, just minutes from the desert and river! Come see today!

21. 2021-01-26
    soldstatus $70,000 151-char remark

    Show marketing remark (151 chars)

    Take a look at this quaint little home that has new electrical, plumbing, flooring and paint. Lots of parking for all your toys and in a nice location.

22. 2021-01-26
    soldstatus $70,000

    Show marketing remark (151 chars)

    Take a look at this quaint little home that has new electrical, plumbing, flooring and paint. Lots of parking for all your toys and in a nice location.

23. 2020-10-20
    listed $75,000 151-char remark

    Show marketing remark (151 chars)

    Take a look at this quaint little home that has new electrical, plumbing, flooring and paint. Lots of parking for all your toys and in a nice location.

24. 2019-12-16
    soldstatus $48,000
25. 2019-12-06
    soldstatus $48,000
26. 2019-10-21
    listed $55,000
27. 1986-04-15
    soldstatus $11,750

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥115°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,533
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,106
• − Property taxes: −$1,635
• − Insurance: −$545
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,483
• − Management: −$1,483
• − Depreciation: −$3,171
• Taxable income: $4,111
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$987
• After-tax cash flow: $4,615/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Parker Unified School District (4510)
• NCES district ID: 0405980
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $34,354
• Composite: 14.76/100
• National rank: #9392
• State rank: #200 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Cienega Springs

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #107
• US rank: #14934

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cienega Springs, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 9,069

Population outlook (La Paz County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 18,409 people
• By 2030: 17,592 · -4.4%
• By 2040: 16,600 · -9.8%
• By 2050: 16,328 · -11.3%
• By 2075: 17,075 · -7.2%
• By 2100: 17,042 · -7.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: White 40% Hispanic / Latino 34% Native American 23% Two or more races 19% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · La Paz

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.2) · D 27.6% · R 71.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.7pp toward R · 2008: -28.5pp · 2024: -44.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.2 2020: R+38.8 2016: R+41.8 2012: R+32.2 2008: R+28.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -155.38%
• Current HPI: 198.2271
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+878.7% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-19 Relisted — LHAR
• 2025-12-25 Relisted — LHAR
• 2025-09-24 Pending — LHAR
• 2025-09-22 Listed $115,000 LHAR
• 2021-01-26 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 2021-01-26 Sold (MLS) $70,000 LHAR
• 2020-10-20 Listed $75,000 LHAR
• 2019-12-16 Sold (MLS) $48,000 LHAR
• 2019-12-06 Sold (Public Records) $48,000 Public Records
• 2019-10-21 Listed $55,000 LHAR
• 1986-04-15 Sold (Public Records) $11,750 Public Records

Property tax history

-3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $198 · +5.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.