225 Mockingbird Ln · Buffalo, KY 42716

$165,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 832 sqft · Other public records · 44 Days on market

Built 1993 3.00 ac lot $199/sqft · 230% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

If you’ve been waiting for a property with land, privacy, and serious potential, this is it. Situated on a secluded 3-acre lot, this home offers the kind of peaceful setting that’s getting harder and harder to find. The house itself needs work and is being sold as-is, making it a great opportunity for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to build equity with some sweat and vision. One of the standout features is the massive 21’ x 38’ detached garage, perfect for a workshop, storage, or hobby space. If you’re not afraid of a project and want space to spread out, this property checks the boxes: land, privacy, and upside. Opportunities like this don’t come around often, bring your ideas and make it your own! The property is being SOLD AS IS and will not go VA/FHA.

Key facts

• 3 acre lot
• Detached garage
• 3 acre lot

Tags

• 3 ACRE LOT
• DETACHED GARAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $166k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $74 ($886/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $132k (20.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $132k (20.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#310 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Larue County (rural): math 26% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #82 of 165 in KY (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hodgenville Elementary School (math 31% / reading 41%, grade F, #287 of 676 statewide, top 43%, 539 students, 53% FRL); Larue County Middle School (math 21% / reading 44%, grade F, #116 of 217 statewide, top 55%, 533 students, 54% FRL); Larue County High School (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #58 of 254 statewide, top 27%, 744 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools at 51% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 65 units permitted in Larue County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $12 appreciation (0.0% local appreciation)).
• Larue County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($161k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $89k; list at $166k implies a 86% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $132,182 (20.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.91%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $100,470
• List price: $165,500
• Delta: 64.73%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

0.01% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $-169
• Equity at exit: $48,114

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.59×
• Total profit: $27,332
• Equity at exit: $57,882

Cash invested: $46,340 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42716

• Home prices YoY: 0.0%
• Active inventory: 16
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,322 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$868
• Tax from tax record: −$34 /mo · $402/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$278
• Net cashflow: $74

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,228

Max offer price $165,500

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $168	-5% $121	+0% $74	+5% $27	+10% $-20
Rent	-10% $-31	-5% $22	+0% $74	+5% $126	+10% $178
Rate	-1.0pp $157	-0.5pp $116	base $74	+0.5pp $31	+1.0pp $-13

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,375
• Closing costs: $4,965
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending 809-char remark

   Show marketing remark (809 chars)

   If you’ve been waiting for a property with land, privacy, and serious potential, this is it. Situated on a secluded 3-acre lot, this home offers the kind of peaceful setting that’s getting harder and harder to find. The house itself needs work and is being sold as-is, making it a great opportunity for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to build equity with some sweat and vision. One of the standout features is the massive 21’ x 38’ detached garage, perfect for a workshop, storage, or hobby space. If you’re not afraid of a project and want space to spread out, this property checks the boxes: land, privacy, and upside. Opportunities like this don’t come around often, bring your ideas and make it your own! The property is being SOLD AS IS and will not go VA/FHA.

2. 2026-04-01
   listed $165,500 Active

   Show marketing remark (809 chars)

   If you’ve been waiting for a property with land, privacy, and serious potential, this is it. Situated on a secluded 3-acre lot, this home offers the kind of peaceful setting that’s getting harder and harder to find. The house itself needs work and is being sold as-is, making it a great opportunity for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to build equity with some sweat and vision. One of the standout features is the massive 21’ x 38’ detached garage, perfect for a workshop, storage, or hobby space. If you’re not afraid of a project and want space to spread out, this property checks the boxes: land, privacy, and upside. Opportunities like this don’t come around often, bring your ideas and make it your own! The property is being SOLD AS IS and will not go VA/FHA.

3. 2026-04-01
   listed $165,500 Active 809-char remark

   Show marketing remark (809 chars)

   If you’ve been waiting for a property with land, privacy, and serious potential, this is it. Situated on a secluded 3-acre lot, this home offers the kind of peaceful setting that’s getting harder and harder to find. The house itself needs work and is being sold as-is, making it a great opportunity for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to build equity with some sweat and vision. One of the standout features is the massive 21’ x 38’ detached garage, perfect for a workshop, storage, or hobby space. If you’re not afraid of a project and want space to spread out, this property checks the boxes: land, privacy, and upside. Opportunities like this don’t come around often, bring your ideas and make it your own! The property is being SOLD AS IS and will not go VA/FHA.

4. 2024-03-15
   soldstatus $89,000 Closed
5. 2024-03-15
   soldstatus $89,000
6. 2024-02-28
   status Pending
7. 2024-01-09
   price $99,900
8. 2023-10-30
   price $119,900
9. 2023-10-04
   listed $135,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $402 · $34/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,423 · $119/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,021/yr (+$85/mo · 253.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,862
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,271
• − Property taxes: −$402
• − Insurance: −$828
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,269
• − Management: −$1,269
• − Depreciation: −$4,815
• Taxable loss: −$1,991
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$478
• After-tax cash flow: $1,364/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Larue County
• NCES district ID: 2103180
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -19.00%
• Median HH income: $39,784
• Composite: 27.66/100
• National rank: #6918
• State rank: #82 of 165 in KY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #310
• US rank: #14912

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D- Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,640

Population outlook (Larue County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,441 people
• By 2030: 14,453 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 14,258 · -1.3%
• By 2050: 13,687 · -5.2%
• By 2075: 12,271 · -15.0%
• By 2100: 10,639 · -26.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Hispanic 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Larue

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.4) · D 19.1% · R 79.5% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.1pp toward R · 2008: -36.3pp · 2024: -60.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.4 2020: R+57.3 2016: R+55.4 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+36.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▬ 0.01%
• Current HPI: 263.6298
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+22.6% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — HKARMLS
• 2026-04-01 Listed $165,500 HKARMLS
• 2026-04-01 Listed $165,500 Metro Search MLS
• 2024-03-15 Sold (Public Records) $89,000 Public Records
• 2024-03-15 Sold (MLS) $89,000 HKARMLS
• 2024-02-28 Pending — HKARMLS
• 2024-01-09 Price Changed $99,900 HKARMLS
• 2023-10-30 Price Changed $119,900 HKARMLS
• 2023-10-04 Listed $135,000 HKARMLS

Property tax history

+12.9%/yr

Latest (2022): $402 · +237.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.