276 Louise Ln · Elliston, VA 24087

$320,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,769 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 35 Days on market

Built 2021 5,750 sqft lot $181/sqft · at area comps Est $323k · at est. $83/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.9/15.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

New Construction. 4 Bedroom 2.5 bath home with Single car attached garage. Granite Counter tops through out. LTV Plank in living room/dining area, powder room and kitchen. Carpet in Bedrooms. Laundry room upper level with mechanical room and storage. Monthly HOA fee is $50.00. Photo's are stock photos. House is under roof, but no sheetrock.

Key facts

• Kitchen island
• Granite countertops
• 5,750 sq ft lot

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT MAIN LEVEL
• DURABLE LTV PLANK FLOORING
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• ESPRESSO SHAKER CABINETS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• KITCHEN ISLAND

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with an annual fee of $1,000 (about $83.33/month)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Concrete parking; 1 garage space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family detached residence; Residential property
• Construction: Stone and vinyl siding construction; Above-grade finished living area
• Exterior features: Garden; Patio; Porch; Shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Walk-in closet(s); 7 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $320k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-485 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $234k (26.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (37.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $200k (37.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#342 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Montgomery County Public School District (urban): math 57% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #47 of 131 in VA (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Eastern Montgomery Elementary (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #966 of 1,108 statewide, top 89%, 385 students, 76% FRL); Shawsville Middle (math 41% / reading 56%, grade C-, #244 of 342 statewide, top 72%, 208 students, 74% FRL); Eastern Montgomery High (math 72% / reading 77%, grade B+, #107 of 319 statewide, top 37%, 282 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 71% FRL vs 32% district-wide (39 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 323 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $34k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $32k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$55k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($310k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $252k; 27% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $199,500 (37.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.47%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.50%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 13.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $322,877
• List price: $320,000
• Delta: 3.75%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
356 Bernies Way	0.03mi	4/2.5	1,745 (-1%)	7mo	$338,000	$194	91
320 Bernies Way Way	0.05mi	4/2.5	1,745 (-1%)	22mo	$295,000	$169	76
203 Louise Ln	0.08mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,970 (+11%)	22mo	$315,000	$160	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.60×
• Total profit: $143,302
• Equity at exit: $288,281

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.98×
• Total profit: $446,191
• Equity at exit: $621,690

Cash invested: $89,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24087

• Home prices YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 33
• Price-to-rent: 13.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,995 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax from tax record: −$167 /mo · $2,004/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$83
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$419
• Net cashflow: $-485

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,609

Max offer price $234,251

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-304	-5% $-395	+0% $-485	+5% $-576	+10% $-667
Rent	-10% $-643	-5% $-564	+0% $-485	+5% $-407	+10% $-328
Rate	-1.0pp $-324	-0.5pp $-404	base $-485	+0.5pp $-568	+1.0pp $-653

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $80,000
• Closing costs: $9,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
239 Louise Ln Elliston, VA	3.0	2.5	1568	$1,995	$1.27	23d	1	0.10mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $83 · $996/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-16
   status $320,000 Pending 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $320,000 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-14
   days on market $320,000 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $320,000 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $320,000 Active 30 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $320,000 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   price $320,000 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $330,000 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $330,000 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on marketlisting id $330,000 Active 24 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $335,000 Active 23 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $335,000 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $335,000 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $335,000 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $335,000 Active 19 DOM
16. 2026-05-11
    listed $335,000 Active 1027-char remark
17. 2026-05-11
    listed $335,000 Active 795-char remark
18. 2021-07-28
    soldstatus $251,600

    Show marketing remark (342 chars)

    New Construction. 4 Bedroom 2.5 bath home with Single car attached garage. Granite Counter tops through out. LTV Plank in living room/dining area, powder room and kitchen. Carpet in Bedrooms. Laundry room upper level with mechanical room and storage. Monthly HOA fee is $50.00. Photo's are stock photos. House is under roof, but no sheetrock.

19. 2021-03-20
    listed $251,600

    Show marketing remark (342 chars)

    New Construction. 4 Bedroom 2.5 bath home with Single car attached garage. Granite Counter tops through out. LTV Plank in living room/dining area, powder room and kitchen. Carpet in Bedrooms. Laundry room upper level with mechanical room and storage. Monthly HOA fee is $50.00. Photo's are stock photos. House is under roof, but no sheetrock.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,004 · $167/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,624 · $219/mo
• Expected delta: +$620/yr (+$52/mo · 30.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥93°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,940
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,925
• − Property taxes: −$2,004
• − Insurance: −$1,600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,915
• − Management: −$1,915
• − HOA: −$996
• − Depreciation: −$9,309
• Taxable loss: −$11,725
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,814
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,011/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102520
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $46,618
• Composite: 53.6/100
• National rank: #1440
• State rank: #47 of 131 in VA

Livability — Elliston

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #342
• US rank: #13622

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elliston, VA
• Population (ZIP): 3,948

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,748 people
• By 2030: 110,301 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 115,652 · +9.4%
• By 2050: 119,651 · +13.1%
• By 2075: 126,005 · +19.2%
• By 2100: 129,771 · +22.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 6% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.9% · R 47.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.4pp toward R · 2008: 4.9pp · 2024: 3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+3.5 2020: D+5.8 2016: D+1.3 2012: R+0.2 2008: D+4.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.65%
• Current HPI: 258.6535
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+27.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Pending — NRVMLS
• 2026-06-08 Price Changed $320,000 NRVMLS
• 2026-06-04 Price Changed $330,000 MLSRV
• 2026-05-27 Price Changed $330,000 NRVMLS
• 2026-05-11 Listed $335,000 NRVMLS
• 2021-07-28 Sold (MLS) $251,600 NRVMLS
• 2021-03-20 Listed $251,600 NRVMLS

Property tax history

+55.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,004 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.