166 Ayrault Rd · Fairport, NY 14450

$299,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,860 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1946 0.86 ac lot Est $441k · 32% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Priced way under assessment. PROPERTY NEEDS UPDATES but would make a great starter house or a big sprawling ranch for that large family. Beautiful private wooded lot. Newer archt. roof. Property being sold AS IS. Make your appointment today!!!

Key facts

• First-floor laundry
• Private ensuite bath
• New windows

Tags

• CUSTOM KRAFTMAID CABINETRY
• DESIGNER QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• REMODELED MORNING ROOM
• NEW WINDOWS
• FIRST-FLOOR LAUNDRY
• PRIVATE ENSUITE BATH

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Trails/paths nearby (community feature)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces; Underground parking elements; Driveway; Garage with electricity, heating, storage, workshop, water available and garage door opener
• Utilities: Electricity connected with circuit breakers; Public water connected; Septic tank; Cable available; High-speed internet available
• Home design: Single-story home; Existing/resale property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Architectural shingle roof; Block and poured foundation; Copper and PEX plumbing
• Exterior features: Private yard; Open porch; Gravel driveway; Patio/porch; See remarks

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven and electric range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator; Kitchen island; Pantry and walk-in pantry; Quartz countertops; Eat-in kitchen / breakfast area
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Hardwood; Carpet; Ceramic tile; Laminate; Vinyl; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Oil heat; Programmable thermostat
• Interior features: Breakfast bar and breakfast area; Ceiling fans; Cathedral ceilings; Den and separate/formal living room; Entrance foyer; Eat-in kitchen with island; Kitchen/family room combo; Pantry and walk-in pantry; Quartz counters; Sliding glass doors; Window treatments; Programmable thermostat; Convertible bedroom; Primary suite with bath in primary bedroom; Main level primary and bedroom on main level; Accessible bedroom, doors, and no-stairs access
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry on main level with accessible utilities

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $36 ($433/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $267k (11.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $267k (11.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.4% in Fairport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#301 in NY, #4,847 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, schools A; Watch: commute F.
• Fairport Central School District (suburban): math 55% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #199 of 590 in NY (top 34%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 188 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,169 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (591 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monroe County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $98k; list at $300k implies a 206% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1946 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $266,960 (11.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1946 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.52%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $440,820
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
213 Ayrault Rd	0.12mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,768 (-5%)	3mo	$490,213	$277	78
126 Brentwood Ln	0.60mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,896 (+2%)	2mo	$410,000	$216	60
11 Santa Dr	0.71mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,850 (-0%)	2mo	$450,000	$243	58
41 Sandle Dr	0.36mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,688 (-9%)	6mo	$400,000	$237	57
35 Harvest Rd	0.39mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,694 (-9%)	6mo	$306,000	$181	57
24 Countryside Rd	0.44mi	3/2.5	2,041 (+10%)	8mo	$575,000	$282	55
418 Jefferson Ave	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,749 (-6%)	6mo	$375,000	$214	52
75 Brentwood Ln	0.71mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,752 (-6%)	2mo	$430,000	$245	48
28 Old Post Rd	0.66mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,776 (-4%)	9mo	$456,000	$257	48
7 Old Post Rd	0.74mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,736 (-7%)	2mo	$380,000	$219	48
43 Harvest Rd	0.48mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,080 (+12%)	9mo	$435,000	$209	45
5 Red Barn Cir	0.71mi	3/1.5	1,712 (-8%)	8mo	$406,000	$237	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-54,079
• Equity at exit: $44,716

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-74,199
• Equity at exit: $25,930

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14450

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 188
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,670 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$375 /mo · $4,502/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$561
• Net cashflow: $36

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,624

Max offer price $299,900

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $206	-5% $121	+0% $36	+5% $-49	+10% $-134
Rent	-10% $-175	-5% $-69	+0% $36	+5% $142	+10% $247
Rate	-1.0pp $187	-0.5pp $112	base $36	+0.5pp $-42	+1.0pp $-121

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
437 Ayrault Rd Fairport, NY	2.0	2.5	1424	$2,750	$1.93	16d	1	0.61mi
6 Cullens Run Pittsford, NY	4.0	2.0	1300	$3,000	$2.31	45d	1	1.18mi
1474 Marsh Rd Pittsford, NY	2.0	1.5	1450	$2,995	$2.07	21d	1	1.20mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $299,900 Pending 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,900 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,900 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,900 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,900 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-10
   listed $299,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,502 · $375/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,785 · $399/mo
• Expected delta: +$283/yr (+$24/mo · 6.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,035
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$4,502
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,563
• − Management: −$2,563
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable loss: −$4,616
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,108
• After-tax cash flow: $1,541/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fairport Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3610890
• Math proficiency: 55% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $74,981
• Composite: 53.84/100
• National rank: #1409
• State rank: #199 of 590 in NY

Livability — Fairport

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #301
• US rank: #4847

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime C+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Monroe County · 674,131 people
• City population: 42,750
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• Population (ZIP): 42,750
• Household income: $109,466
• Rent vs Own: 23.0% rent · 77.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 843.0

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 759,460 people
• By 2030: 757,154 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 740,644 · -2.5%
• By 2050: 714,443 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 645,883 · -15.0%
• By 2100: 547,084 · -28.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Indo-European 1% Spanish 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: D (+19.1) · D 59.5% · R 40.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.4pp toward D · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 19.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.1 2020: D+21.0 2016: D+14.1 2012: D+17.4 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -189.56%
• Current HPI: 270.7329
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.84%
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+163.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $299,900 UNYREIS
• 2013-10-04 Sold (Public Records) $98,000 Public Records
• 2013-10-04 Sold (MLS) $98,000 UNYREIS
• 2013-06-06 Listed $114,000 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,502 · +113.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.