21 Keelson Row Unit Cape Fear - K · Bald Head Island, NC 28461

$36,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 450 sqft · SingleFamily · 189 Days on market

Built 1994 0.26 ac lot Est $36k · at est. $365/mo HOA · 30% of rent ↓ 27% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This enchanting 3-room suite is your perfect gateway to Bald Head Island. Cape Fear Suite ''K'' will not disappoint. Watch the harbor come to life while sitting on the 30-foot covered veranda which adds incredible space to your stay. The décor is pure Nantucket in style and relaxed comfort with all new furnishing to include a queen sleeper sofa, flat panel television, hardwoods throughout. This suite has been completely remodeled top to bottom. The primary bedroom has private access to the balcony. The kitchen has all that you need for the perfect week getaway. A bonus is access to Shoals club during your time at Marsh Harbour Inn. You will also enjoy your own private golf cart to us

Key facts

• Private golf cart
• 0.26 acre lot
• Built 1994

Tags

• 30 FOOT COVERED VERANDA
• PRIVATE ACCESS TO THE BALCONY
• ACCESS TO SHOALS CLUB
• PRIVATE GOLF CART

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Community features include sidewalks and street lights
• HOA & community: Has homeowners association; Association amenities include laundry, grounds maintenance, structure maintenance, management, storage, trash, and water; Annual association fee of $4,376 (approximately $364.67/month)

Exterior

• Parking: Lighted, paved on-site parking
• Security: Fire sprinkler system; Security lights; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Residential timeshare (fractional)
• Construction: Frame construction; Shingle roof; Pillar/Post/Pier foundation; Built on an irregular 0.26-acre lot
• Exterior features: Gas grill; Balcony; Corner lot; Bay/Harbor frontage; City street and state road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Refrigerator; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 3 total rooms (includes bedroom(s))
• Flooring: Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump; Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Window coverings; Furnished; Fire sprinkler system; Security lights; Smoke detectors
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $36k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $344 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $36k).
• Recommended offer: $32k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#597 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Brunswick County Schools (rural): math 45% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #82 of 178 in NC (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 877 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 6,112 units permitted in Brunswick County in 2024 (990 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 18% of the median local income ($83k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $249 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brunswick County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.7% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 189 days — a 12% lower offer ($32k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 30% of rent.

Recommended offer $31,680 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 189 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 40.91%
• DSCR: 2.82
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $36,000
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21 Keelson Row Unit 9j (Captains Quarters)	0.00mi	1/1.0	450 (0%)	2mo	$36,000	$80	99

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.74% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.35×
• Total profit: $13,602
• Equity at exit: $5,368

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.02×
• Total profit: $30,444
• Equity at exit: $3,113

Cash invested: $10,080 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28461

• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 877
• Price-to-rent: 2.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,212 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$189
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$45 /mo · $540/yr
• Insurance: −$15
• HOA: −$365
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$255
• Net cashflow: $344

Break-even live

Break-even rent $777

Max offer price $36,000

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $369	-5% $356	+0% $344	+5% $331	+10% $319
Rent	-10% $248	-5% $296	+0% $344	+5% $392	+10% $439
Rate	-1.0pp $362	-0.5pp $353	base $344	+0.5pp $334	+1.0pp $325

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,000
• Closing costs: $1,080
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $365 · $4,380/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $36,000 Active 189 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $36,000 Active 188 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $36,000 Active 187 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $36,000 Active 186 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $36,000 Active 184 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $36,000 Active 183 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $36,000 Active 181 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $36,000 Active 180 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $36,000 Active 179 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $36,000 Active 178 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $36,000 Active 175 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $36,000 Active 174 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $36,000 Active 173 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $36,000 Active 172 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $36,000 Active 171 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $36,000 Active 170 DOM
17. 2026-04-24
    price $36,000
18. 2026-01-19
    price $39,500
19. 2025-10-28
    listed $49,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,544
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,017
• − Property taxes: −$540
• − Insurance: −$180
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,163
• − Management: −$1,163
• − HOA: −$4,380
• − Depreciation: −$1,047
• Taxable income: $4,053
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$973
• After-tax cash flow: $3,151/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brunswick County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700420
• Math proficiency: 45% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,494
• Composite: 39.23/100
• National rank: #4011
• State rank: #82 of 178 in NC

Livability — Bald Head Island

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #597
• US rank: #21745

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety D User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bald Head Island, NC
• County: Brunswick County · 131,536 people
• Metro: Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC
• Population (ZIP): 23,762
• Household income: $82,692
• Rent vs Own: 12.8% rent · 87.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 161.0

Population outlook (Brunswick County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 152,111 people
• By 2030: 165,705 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 188,494 · +23.9%
• By 2050: 206,228 · +35.6%
• By 2075: 237,876 · +56.4%
• By 2100: 251,451 · +65.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 6% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Brunswick

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.9) · D 37.2% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.9pp toward R · 2008: -17.9pp · 2024: -24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.9 2020: R+25.0 2016: R+28.7 2012: R+22.2 2008: R+17.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -195.19%
• Current HPI: 142.5667
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.74%
• Metro: Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

-26.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $36,000 Hive MLS
• 2026-01-19 Price Changed $39,500 Hive MLS
• 2025-10-28 Listed $49,000 Hive MLS